Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries

Despite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing the burden of disease and the likely impact of interventions.We estimated the force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) by fitting catalytic models to age-stratified incidence data identified from the literature. We compared estimates derived from incidence and seroprevalence data and assessed the level of under-reporting of dengue disease. In addition, we estimated the relative contribution of primary to quaternary infections to the observed burden of dengue disease incidence. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from one to five and the force of infection estimates from incidence data were consistent with those previously estimated from seroprevalence data. The baseline reporting rate (or the probability of detecting a secondary infection) was generally low (<25%) and varied within and between countries.As expected, estimates varied widely across and within countries, highlighting the spatio-temporally heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. Although seroprevalence data provide the maximum information, the incidence models presented in this paper provide a method for estimating dengue transmission intensity from age-stratified incidence data, which will be an important consideration in areas where seroprevalence data are not available

Early invaders - Farmers, the granary weevil and other uninvited guests in the Neolithic

The Neolithic and the spread of agriculture saw several introductions of insect species associated with the environments and activities of the first farmers. Fossil insect research from the Neolithic lake settlement of Dispilio in Macedonia, northern Greece, provides evidence for the early European introduction of a flightless weevil, the granary weevil, Sitophilus granarius, which has since become cosmopolitan and one of the most important pests of stored cereals. The records of the granary weevil from the Middle Neolithic in northern Greece illuminate the significance of surplus storage for the spread of agriculture. The granary weevil and the house fly, Musca domestica were also introduced in the Neolithic of central Europe, with the expansion of Linear Band Keramik (LBK) culture groups. This paper reviews Neolithic insect introductions in Europe, including storage pests, discusses their distribution during different periods and the reasons behind the trends observed. Storage farming may be differentiated from pastoral farming on the basis of insect introductions arriving with incoming agricultural groups

Reliable Classifier to Differentiate Primary and Secondary Acute Dengue Infection Based on IgG ELISA

Dengue virus infection causes a wide spectrum of illness, ranging from sub-clinical to severe disease. Severe dengue is associated with sequential viral infections. A strict definition of primary versus secondary dengue infections requires a combination of several tests performed at different stages of the disease, which is not practical.We developed a simple method to classify dengue infections as primary or secondary based on the levels of dengue-specific IgG. A group of 109 dengue infection patients were classified as having primary or secondary dengue infection on the basis of a strict combination of results from assays of antigen-specific IgM and IgG, isolation of virus and detection of the viral genome by PCR tests performed on multiple samples, collected from each patient over a period of 30 days. The dengue-specific IgG levels of all samples from 59 of the patients were analyzed by linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and one- and two-dimensional classifiers were designed. The one-dimensional classifier was estimated by bolstered resubstitution error estimation to have 75.1% sensitivity and 92.5% specificity. The two-dimensional classifier was designed by taking also into consideration the number of days after the onset of symptoms, with an estimated sensitivity and specificity of 91.64% and 92.46%. The performance of the two-dimensional classifier was validated using an independent test set of standard samples from the remaining 50 patients. The classifications of the independent set of samples determined by the two-dimensional classifiers were further validated by comparing with two other dengue classification methods: hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay and an in-house anti-dengue IgG-capture ELISA method. The decisions made with the two-dimensional classifier were in 100% accordance with the HI assay and 96% with the in-house ELISA.Once acute dengue infection has been determined, a 2-D classifier based on common dengue virus IgG kits can reliably distinguish primary and secondary dengue infections. Software for calculation and validation of the 2-D classifier is made available for download

Preexisting Japanese Encephalitis Virus Neutralizing Antibodies and Increased Symptomatic Dengue Illness in a School-Based Cohort in Thailand

Dengue viruses (DENVs) and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) have significant cross-reactivity in serological assays, but the possible clinical implications of this remain poorly understood. Interactions between these flaviviruses are potentially important for public health because wild-type JEV continues to co-circulate with DENV in Southeast Asia, the area with the highest burden of DENV illness, and JEV vaccination coverage in this region is high. In this study, we examined how preexisting JEV neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) influenced the clinical severity of subsequent DENV infection using data from a prospective school-based cohort study in Thailand that captured a wide range of clinical severities, including asymptomatic, non-hospitalized, and hospitalized DENV infections. We found that the prior existence of JEV NAbs was associated with an increased occurrence of symptomatic versus asymptomatic DENV infection. This association was most notable in DENV-naives, in whom the presence of JEV NAbs was also associated with an illness of longer duration. These findings suggest that the issue of heterologous flavivirus immunity and DENV infection merits renewed attention and interest and that DENV vaccine developers might incorporate detailed assessments of preexisting immunity to non-DENV flaviviruses and histories of vaccination against non-DENV flaviviruses in evaluating DENV vaccine safety and efficacy

Targeting vaccinations for the licensed dengue vaccine: considerations for serosurvey design

Background The CYD-TDV vaccine was unusual in that the recommended target population for vaccination was originally defined not only by age, but also by transmission setting as defined by seroprevalence. WHO originally recommended countries consider vaccination against dengue with CYD-TDV vaccine in geographic settings only where prior infection with any dengue serotype, as measured by seroprevalence, was >170% in the target age group. Vaccine was not recommended in settings where seroprevalence was <50%. Test-and-vaccinate strategies suggested following new analysis by Sanofi will still require age-stratified seroprevalence surveys to optimise age-group targeting. Here we address considerations for serosurvey design in the context of vaccination program planning. Methods To explore how the design of seroprevalence surveys affects estimates of transmission intensity, 100 age-specific seroprevalence surveys were simulated using a beta-binomial distribution and a simple catalytic model for different combinations of age-range, survey size, transmission setting, and test sensitivity/specificity. We then used a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte-Carlo algorithm to estimate the force of infection from each simulated dataset. Results Sampling from a wide age-range led to more accurate estimates than merely increasing sample size in a narrow age-range. This finding was consistent across all transmission settings. The optimum test sensitivity and specificity given an imperfect test differed by setting with high sensitivity being important in high transmission settings and high specificity important in low transmission settings. Conclusions When assessing vaccination suitability by seroprevalence surveys, countries should ensure an appropriate age-range is sampled, considering epidemiological evidence about the local burden of disease

Tree thinking cannot taken for granted: challenges for teaching phylogenetics

Tree thinking is an integral part of modern evolutionary biology, and a necessary precondition for phylogenetics and comparative analyses. Tree thinking has during the 20th century largely replaced group thinking, developmental thinking and anthropocentricism in biology. Unfortunately, however, this does not imply that tree thinking can be taken for granted. The findings reported here indicate that tree thinking is very much an acquired ability which needs extensive training. I tested a sample of undergraduate and graduate students of biology by means of questionnaires. Not a single student was able to correctly interpret a simple tree drawing. Several other findings demonstrate that tree thinking is virtually absent in students unless they are explicitly taught how to read evolutionary trees. Possible causes and implications of this mental bias are discussed. It seems that biological textbooks can be an important source of confusion for students. While group and developmental thinking have disappeared from most textual representations of evolution, they have survived in the evolutionary tree drawings of many textbooks. It is quite common for students to encounter anthropocentric trees and even trees containing stem groups and paraphyla. While these biases originate from the unconscious philosophical assumptions made by authors, the findings suggest that presenting unbiased evolutionary trees in biological publications is not merely a philosophical virtue but has also clear practical implications

Determinants of Inapparent and Symptomatic Dengue Infection in a Prospective Study of Primary School Children in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Dengue viruses are a major cause of illness and hospitalizations in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Severe dengue illness can cause prolonged hospitalization and in some cases death in both children and adults. The majority of dengue infections however are inapparent, producing little clinical illness. Little is known about the epidemiology or factors that determine the incidence of inapparent infection. We describe in a study of school children in Northern Thailand the changing nature of symptomatic and inapparent dengue infection. We demonstrate that the proportion of inapparent dengue infection varies widely among schools during a year and within schools during subsequent years. Important factors that determine this variation are the amount of dengue infection in a given and previous year. Our findings provide an important insight in the virus-host interaction that determines dengue severity, how severe a dengue epidemic may be in a given year, and important clues on how a dengue vaccine may be effective

Neuroleptic-induced movement disorders in a naturalistic schizophrenia population: diagnostic value of actometric movement patterns

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Neuroleptic-induced movement disorders (NIMDs) have overlapping co-morbidity. Earlier studies have described typical clinical movement patterns for individual NIMDs. This study aimed to identify specific movement patterns for each individual NIMD using actometry.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A naturalistic population of 99 schizophrenia inpatients using conventional antipsychotics and clozapine was evaluated. Subjects with NIMDs were categorized using the criteria for NIMD found in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders – Fourth Edition (DSM-IV).</p> <p>Two blinded raters evaluated the actometric-controlled rest activity data for activity periods, rhythmical activity, frequencies, and highest acceleration peaks. A simple subjective question was formulated to test patient-based evaluation of NIMD.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The patterns of neuroleptic-induced akathisia (NIA) and pseudoakathisia (PsA) were identifiable in actometry with excellent inter-rater reliability. The answers to the subjective question about troubles with movements distinguished NIA patients from other patients rather well. Also actometry had rather good screening performances in distinguishing akathisia from other NIMD. Actometry was not able to reliably detect patterns of neuroleptic-induced parkinsonism and tardive dyskinesia.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study showed that pooled NIA and PsA patients had a different pattern in lower limb descriptive actometry than other patients in a non-selected sample. Careful questioning of patients is a useful method of diagnosing NIA in a clinical setting.</p

Dengue virus neutralizing antibody levels associated with protection from infection in Thai cluster studies

BACKGROUND: Long-term homologous and temporary heterologous protection from dengue virus (DENV) infection may be mediated by neutralizing antibodies. However, neutralizing antibody titers (NTs) have not been clearly associated with protection from infection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data from two geographic cluster studies conducted in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand were used for this analysis. In the first study (2004-2007), cluster investigations of 100-meter radius were triggered by DENV-infected index cases from a concurrent prospective cohort. Subjects between 6 months and 15 years old were evaluated for DENV infection at days 0 and 15 by DENV PCR and IgM ELISA. In the second study (2009-2012), clusters of 200-meter radius were triggered by DENV-infected index cases admitted to the provincial hospital. Subjects of any age 6 months and older were evaluated for DENV infection at days 0 and 14. In both studies, subjects who were DENV PCR positive at day 14/15 were considered to have been susceptible on day 0. Comparison subjects from houses in which someone had documented DENV infection, but the subject remained DENV negative at days 0 and 14/15, were considered non-susceptible. Day 0 samples were presumed to be from just before virus exposure, and underwent plaque reduction neutralization testing (PRNT). Seventeen susceptible (six DENV-1, five DENV-2, and six DENV-4), and 32 non-susceptible (13 exposed to DENV-1, 10 DENV-2, and 9 DENV-4) subjects were evaluated. Comparing subjects exposed to the same serotype, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves identified homotypic PRNT titers of 11, 323 and 16 for DENV-1, -2 and -4, respectively, to differentiate susceptible from non-susceptible subjects. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: PRNT titers were associated with protection from infection by DENV-1, -2 and -4. Protective NTs appeared to be serotype-dependent and may be higher for DENV-2 than other serotypes. These findings are relevant for both dengue epidemiology studies and vaccine development efforts