Solar cycle response and long-term trends in the mesospheric metal layers

The meteoric metal layers (Na, Fe, and K)—which form as a result of the ablation of incoming meteors—act as unique tracers for chemical and dynamical processes that occur within the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere region. In this work, we examine whether these metal layers are sensitive indicators of decadal long-term changes within the upper atmosphere. Output from a whole-atmosphere climate model is used to assess the response of the Na, K, and Fe layers across a 50 year period (1955–2005). At short timescales, the K layer has previously been shown to exhibit a very different seasonal behavior compared to the other metals. Here we show that this unusual behavior is also exhibited at longer timescales (both the ~11 year solar cycle and 50 year periods), where K displays a much more pronounced response to atmospheric temperature changes than either Na or Fe. The contrasting solar cycle behavior of the K and Na layers predicted by the model is confirmed using satellite and lidar observations for the period 2004–2013

Global investigation of the Mg atom and ion layers using SCIAMACHY/Envisat observations between 70 and 150 km altitude and WACCM-Mg model results

Mg and Mg+ concentration fields in the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere (UMLT) region are retrieved from SCIAMACHY/Envisat limb measurements of Mg and Mg+ dayglow emissions using a 2-D tomographic retrieval approach. The time series of monthly mean Mg and Mg+ number density and vertical column density in different latitudinal regions are presented. Data from the limb mesosphere–thermosphere mode of SCIAMACHY/Envisat are used, which cover the 50 to 150 km altitude region with a vertical sampling of ≈3.3 km and latitudes up to 82°. The high latitudes are not observed in the winter months, because there is no dayglow emission during polar night. The measurements were performed every 14 days from mid-2008 until April 2012. Mg profiles show a peak at around 90 km altitude with a density between 750 cm−3 and 1500 cm−3. Mg does not show strong seasonal variation at latitudes below 40°. For higher latitudes the density is lower and only in the Northern Hemisphere a seasonal cycle with a summer minimum is observed. The Mg+ peak occurs 5–15 km above the neutral Mg peak altitude. These ions have a significant seasonal cycle with a summer maximum in both hemispheres at mid and high latitudes. The strongest seasonal variations of Mg+ are observed at latitudes between 20 and 40° and the density at the peak altitude ranges from 500 cm−3 to 4000 cm−3. The peak altitude of the ions shows a latitudinal dependence with a maximum at mid latitudes that is up to 10 km higher than the peak altitude at the equator. The SCIAMACHY measurements are compared to other measurements and WACCM model results. The WACCM results show a significant seasonal variability for Mg with a summer minimum, which is more clearly pronounced than for SCIAMACHY, and globally a higher peak density than the SCIAMACHY results. Although the peak density of both is not in agreement, the vertical column density agrees well, because SCIAMACHY and WACCM profiles have different widths. The agreement between SCIAMACHY and WACCM results is much better for Mg+ with both showing the same seasonality and similar peak density. However, there are also minor differences, e.g. WACCM showing a nearly constant altitude of the Mg+ layer's peak density for all latitudes and seasons

The effect of intervertebral cartilage on neutral posture and range of motion in the necks of sauropod dinosaurs

The necks of sauropod dinosaurs were a key factor in their evolution. The habitual posture and range of motion of these necks has been controversial, and computer-aided studies have argued for an obligatory sub-horizontal pose. However, such studies are compromised by their failure to take into account the important role of intervertebral cartilage. This cartilage takes very different forms in different animals. Mammals and crocodilians have intervertebral discs, while birds have synovial joints in their necks. The form and thickness of cartilage varies significantly even among closely related taxa. We cannot yet tell whether the neck joints of sauropods more closely resembled those of birds or mammals. Inspection of CT scans showed cartilage:bone ratios of 4.5% for Sauroposeidon and about 20% and 15% for two juvenile Apatosaurus individuals. In extant animals, this ratio varied from 2.59% for the rhea to 24% for a juvenile giraffe. It is not yet possible to disentangle ontogenetic and taxonomic signals, but mammal cartilage is generally three times as thick as that of birds. Our most detailed work, on a turkey, yielded a cartilage:bone ratio of 4.56%. Articular cartilage also added 11% to the length of the turkey's zygapophyseal facets. Simple image manipulation suggests that incorporating 4.56% of neck cartilage into an intervertebral joint of a turkey raises neutral posture by 15°. If this were also true of sauropods, the true neutral pose of the neck would be much higher than has been depicted. An additional 11% of zygapophyseal facet length translates to 11% more range of motion at each joint. More precise quantitative results must await detailed modelling. In summary, including cartilage in our models of sauropod necks shows that they were longer, more elevated and more flexible than previously recognised

D-region ion–neutral coupled chemistry (Sodankylä Ion Chemistry, SIC) within the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM 4) – WACCM-SIC and WACCM-rSIC

This study presents a new ion–neutral chemical model coupled into the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The ionospheric D-region (altitudes ∼  50–90 km) chemistry is based on the Sodankylä Ion Chemistry (SIC) model, a one-dimensional model containing 307 ion–neutral and ion recombination, 16 photodissociation and 7 photoionization reactions of neutral species, positive and negative ions, and electrons. The SIC mechanism was reduced using the simulation error minimization connectivity method (SEM-CM) to produce a reaction scheme of 181 ion–molecule reactions of 181 ion–molecule reactions of 27 positive and 18 negative ions. This scheme describes the concentration profiles at altitudes between 20 km and 120 km of a set of major neutral species (HNO3, O3, H2O2, NO, NO2, HO2, OH, N2O5) and ions (O2+, O4+, NO+, NO+(H2O), O2+(H2O), H+(H2O), H+(H2O)2, H+(H2O)3, H+(H2O)4, O3−, NO2−, O−, O2, OH−, O2−(H2O), O2−(H2O)2, O4−, CO3−, CO3−(H2O), CO4−, HCO3−, NO2−, NO3−, NO3−(H2O), NO3−(H2O)2, NO3−(HNO3), NO3−(HNO3)2, Cl−, ClO−), which agree with the full SIC mechanism within a 5 % tolerance. Four 3-D model simulations were then performed, using the impact of the January 2005 solar proton event (SPE) on D-region HOx and NOx chemistry as a test case of four different model versions: the standard WACCM (no negative ions and a very limited set of positive ions); WACCM-SIC (standard WACCM with the full SIC chemistry of positive and negative ions); WACCM-D (standard WACCM with a heuristic reduction of the SIC chemistry, recently used to examine HNO3 formation following an SPE); and WACCM-rSIC (standard WACCM with a reduction of SIC chemistry using the SEM-CM method). The standard WACCM misses the HNO3 enhancement during the SPE, while the full and reduced model versions predict significant NOx, HOx and HNO3 enhancements in the mesosphere during solar proton events. The SEM-CM reduction also identifies the important ion–molecule reactions that affect the partitioning of odd nitrogen (NOx), odd hydrogen (HOx) and O3 in the stratosphere and mesosphere

Caspase-8 binding to cardiolipin in giant unilamellar vesicles provides a functional docking platform for bid

Caspase-8 is involved in death receptor-mediated apoptosis in type II cells, the proapoptotic programme of which is triggered by truncated Bid. Indeed, caspase-8 and Bid are the known intermediates of this signalling pathway. Cardiolipin has been shown to provide an anchor and an essential activating platform for caspase-8 at the mitochondrial membrane surface. Destabilisation of this platform alters receptor-mediated apoptosis in diseases such as Barth Syndrome, which is characterised by the presence of immature cardiolipin which does not allow caspase-8 binding. We used a simplified in vitro system that mimics contact sites and/or cardiolipin-enriched microdomains at the outer mitochondrial surface in which the platform consisting of caspase-8, Bid and cardiolipin was reconstituted in giant unilamellar vesicles. We analysed these vesicles by flow cytometry and confirm previous results that demonstrate the requirement for intact mature cardiolipin for caspase-8 activation and Bid binding and cleavage. We also used confocal microscopy to visualise the rupture of the vesicles and their revesiculation at smaller sizes due to alteration of the curvature following caspase-8 and Bid binding. Biophysical approaches, including Laurdan fluorescence and rupture/tension measurements, were used to determine the ability of these three components (cardiolipin, caspase-8 and Bid) to fulfil the minimal requirements for the formation and function of the platform at the mitochondrial membrane. Our results shed light on the active functional role of cardiolipin, bridging the gap between death receptors and mitochondria

A meta-analytic review of stand-alone interventions to improve body image

Objective Numerous stand-alone interventions to improve body image have been developed. The present review used meta-analysis to estimate the effectiveness of such interventions, and to identify the specific change techniques that lead to improvement in body image. Methods The inclusion criteria were that (a) the intervention was stand-alone (i.e., solely focused on improving body image), (b) a control group was used, (c) participants were randomly assigned to conditions, and (d) at least one pretest and one posttest measure of body image was taken. Effect sizes were meta-analysed and moderator analyses were conducted. A taxonomy of 48 change techniques used in interventions targeted at body image was developed; all interventions were coded using this taxonomy. Results The literature search identified 62 tests of interventions (N = 3,846). Interventions produced a small-to-medium improvement in body image (d+ = 0.38), a small-to-medium reduction in beauty ideal internalisation (d+ = -0.37), and a large reduction in social comparison tendencies (d+ = -0.72). However, the effect size for body image was inflated by bias both within and across studies, and was reliable but of small magnitude once corrections for bias were applied. Effect sizes for the other outcomes were no longer reliable once corrections for bias were applied. Several features of the sample, intervention, and methodology moderated intervention effects. Twelve change techniques were associated with improvements in body image, and three techniques were contra-indicated. Conclusions The findings show that interventions engender only small improvements in body image, and underline the need for large-scale, high-quality trials in this area. The review identifies effective techniques that could be deployed in future interventions

Northern winter climate change: assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling

Journal ArticlePublished versionFuture changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a signi fi cant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes

The puzzle of non-party actors in party democracy: Independents in Ireland

It is an accepted truth that parties are the central political actors in all liberal democracies. This dominance of parties is often considered the logical outcome of rational politicians’ attempts to maximize their utility in terms of votes and policy influence. However, the last twenty years have seen a number of significant Independent (i.e. non-party) actors emerge in more than a few political systems. From an actor-centred point of view, party affiliation can, depending on the particular environment, be rather a liability than an advantage, which has significant implications for the role of non-party actors in face of weakening party democracies. To demonstrate this point, we deliver an account of the rise of Independents in the Irish political system, opposed to the dominant scholarly perspective that tends to consider Independents as an idiosyncrasy. We show that the choice of organizational independence over party affiliation represents a reaction to incentives inherent in the electoral, parliamentary and governmental stages that can disfavour party as the most efficient vehicle for individual goal attainment. This becomes evident when avoiding the misleading comparison between parties as collective bodies with that of Independents as individuals, instead focussing on the respective strategic positions of the individual MPs

Early VEGF testing in inflammatory neuropathy avoids POEMS syndrome misdiagnosis and associated costs

BACKGROUND: Prompt diagnosis and early treatment prevents disability in Polyneuropathy Organomegaly Endocrinopathy Monoclonal-protein and Skin Changes (POEMS) syndrome. Delay in diagnosis is common with 55% of patients initially incorrectly diagnosed with chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP). Patients are often treated with intravenous immunoglobulin which is both expensive and ineffective in the treatment of POEMS. Testing patients with acquired demyelinating neuropathy with serum vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) more accurately identifies POEMS syndrome than the current standard of care. Incorporating VEGF testing into screening could prevent misdiagnosis and reduce costs. METHODS: We used observed treatment information for patients in the University College London Hospital's POEMS syndrome database (n=100) and from the National Immunoglobulin Database to estimate costs associated with incorrect CIDP diagnoses across our cohort. We conducted a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis to compare the current diagnostic algorithm with an alternative which includes VEGF testing for all patients with an acquired demyelinating neuropathy. RESULTS: Treatment associated with an incorrect CIDP diagnosis led to total wasted healthcare expenditures of between £808 550 and £1 111 756 across our cohort, with an average cost-per-POEMS-patient misdiagnosed of £14 701 to £20 214. Introducing mandatory VEGF testing for patients with acquired demyelinating neuropathy would lead to annual cost-savings of £107 398 for the National Health Service and could prevent misdiagnosis in 16 cases per annum. CONCLUSIONS: Misdiagnosis in POEMS syndrome results in diagnostic delay, disease progression and significant healthcare costs. Introducing mandatory VEGF testing for patients with acquired demyelinating neuropathy is a cost-effective strategy allowing for early POEMS diagnosis and potentially enabling prompt disease-directed therapy

Whale, whale, everywhere: increasing abundance of western South Atlantic humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in their wintering grounds

The western South Atlantic (WSA) humpback whale population inhabits the coast of Brazil during the breeding and calving season in winter and spring. This population was depleted to near extinction by whaling in the mid-twentieth century. Despite recent signs of recovery, increasing coastal and offshore development pose potential threats to these animals. Therefore, continuous monitoring is needed to assess population status and support conservation strategies. The aim of this work was to present ship-based line-transect estimates of abundance for humpback whales in their WSA breeding ground and to investigate potential changes in population size. Two cruises surveyed the coast of Brazil during August-September in 2008 and 2012. The area surveyed in 2008 corresponded to the currently recognized population breeding area; effort in 2012 was limited due to unfavorable weather conditions. WSA humpback whale population size in 2008 was estimated at 16,410 (CV = 0.228, 95% CI = 10,563–25,495) animals. In order to compare abundance between 2008 and 2012, estimates for the area between Salvador and Cabo Frio, which were consistently covered in the two years, were computed at 15,332 (CV = 0.243, 95% CI = 9,595–24,500) and 19,429 (CV = 0.101, 95% CI = 15,958–23,654) whales, respectively. The difference in the two estimates represents an increase of 26.7% in whale numbers in a 4-year period. The estimated abundance for 2008 is considered the most robust for the WSA humpback whale population because the ship survey conducted in that year minimized bias from various sources. Results presented here indicate that in 2008, the WSA humpback whale population was at least around 60% of its estimated pre-modern whaling abundance and that it may recover to its pre-exploitation size sooner than previously estimated.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe