Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

A gap between the potential and practical realisation of adaptation exists: adaptation strategies need to be both climate-informed and locally relevant to be viable. Place-based approaches study local and contemporary dynamics of the agricultural system, whereas climate impact modelling simulates climate-crop interactions across temporal and spatial scales. Crop-climate modelling and place-based research on adaptation were strategically reviewed and analysed to identify areas of commonality, differences, and potential learning opportunities to enhance the relevance of both disciplines through interdisciplinary approaches. Crop-modelling studies have projected a 7–15% mean yield change with adaptation compared to a non-adaptation baseline (Nature Climate Change 4:1–5, 2014). Of the 17 types of adaptation strategy identified in this study as place-based adaptations occurring within Central America, only five were represented in crop-climate modelling literature, and these were as follows: fertiliser, irrigation, change in planting date, change in cultivar and area cultivated. The breath and agency of real-life adaptation compared to its representation in modelling studies is a source of error in climate impact simulations. Conversely, adaptation research that omits assessment of future climate variability and impact does not enable to provide sustainable adaptation strategies to local communities so risk maladaptation. Integrated and participatory methods can identify and reduce these sources of uncertainty, for example, stakeholder’s engagement can identify locally relevant adaptation pathways. We propose a research agenda that uses methodological approaches from both the modelling and place-based approaches to work towards climate-informed locally relevant adaptation

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Study protocol: improving cognition in people with progressive multiple sclerosis: a multi-arm, randomized, blinded, sham-controlled trial of cognitive rehabilitation and aerobic exercise (COGEx)

Background: Cognitive dysfunction affects up to 70% of people with progressive MS (PMS). It can exert a deleterious effect on activities of daily living, employment and relationships. Preliminary evidence suggests that performance can improve with cognitive rehabilitation (CR) and aerobic exercise (EX), but existing data are predominantly from people with relapsing-remitting MS without cognitive impairment. There is therefore a need to investigate whether this is also the case in people with progressive forms of the disease who have objectively identified cognitive impairment. It is hypothesized that CR and EX are effective treatments for people with PMS who have cognitive impairment, in particular processing speed (PS) deficits, and that a combination of these two treatments is more effective than each individual treatment given alone. We further hypothesize that improvements in PS will be associated with modifications of functional and/or structural plasticity within specific brain networks/regions involved in PS measured with advanced MRI techniques. Methods: This study is a multisite, randomized, double-blinded, sham controlled clinical trial of CR and aerobic exercise. Three hundred and sixty subjects from 11 sites will be randomly assigned into one of four groups: CR plus aerobic exercise; CR plus sham exercise; CR sham plus aerobic exercise and CR sham plus sham exercise. Subjects will participate in the assigned treatments for 12 weeks, twice a week. All subjects will have a cognitive and physical assessment at baseline, 12 weeks and 24 weeks. In an embedded sub-study, approximately 30% of subjects will undergo structural and functional MRI to investigate the neural mechanisms underlying the behavioral response. The primary outcome is the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) measuring PS. Secondary outcome measures include: indices of verbal and non-verbal memory, depression, walking speed and a dual cognitive-motor task and MRI. Discussion: The study is being undertaken in 6 countries (11 centres) in multiple languages (English, Italian, Danish, Dutch); with testing material validated and standardized in these languages. The rationale for this approach is to obtain a robustly powered sample size and to demonstrate that these two interventions can be given effectively in multiple countries and in different languages. Trial registration: The trial was registered on September 20th 2018 at www.clinicaltrials.gov having identifier NCT03679468. Registration was performed before recruitment was initiated

Worldwide comparison of survival from childhood leukaemia for 1995–2009, by subtype, age, and sex (CONCORD-2): a population-based study of individual data for 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries

Background Global inequalities in access to health care are reflected in differences in cancer survival. The CONCORD programme was designed to assess worldwide differences and trends in population-based cancer survival. In this population-based study, we aimed to estimate survival inequalities globally for several subtypes of childhood leukaemia. Methods Cancer registries participating in CONCORD were asked to submit tumour registrations for all children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with leukaemia between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2009, and followed up until Dec 31, 2009. Haematological malignancies were defined by morphology codes in the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision. We excluded data from registries from which the data were judged to be less reliable, or included only lymphomas, and data from countries in which data for fewer than ten children were available for analysis. We also excluded records because of a missing date of birth, diagnosis, or last known vital status. We estimated 5-year net survival (ie, the probability of surviving at least 5 years after diagnosis, after controlling for deaths from other causes [background mortality]) for children by calendar period of diagnosis (1995-99, 2000-04, and 2005-09), sex, and age at diagnosis (< 1, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, inclusive) using appropriate life tables. We estimated age-standardised net survival for international comparison of survival trends for precursor-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Findings We analysed data from 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries. During 1995-99, 5-year agestandardised net survival for all lymphoid leukaemias combined ranged from 10.6% (95% CI 3.1-18.2) in the Chinese registries to 86.8% (81.6-92.0) in Austria. International differences in 5-year survival for childhood leukaemia were still large as recently as 2005-09, when age-standardised survival for lymphoid leukaemias ranged from 52.4% (95% CI 42.8-61.9) in Cali, Colombia, to 91.6% (89.5-93.6) in the German registries, and for AML ranged from 33.3% (18.9-47.7) in Bulgaria to 78.2% (72.0-84.3) in German registries. Survival from precursor-cell ALL was very close to that of all lymphoid leukaemias combined, with similar variation. In most countries, survival from AML improved more than survival from ALL between 2000-04 and 2005-09. Survival for each type of leukaemia varied markedly with age: survival was highest for children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years, and lowest for infants (younger than 1 year). There was no systematic difference in survival between boys and girls. Interpretation Global inequalities in survival from childhood leukaemia have narrowed with time but remain very wide for both ALL and AML. These results provide useful information for health policy makers on the effectiveness of health-care systems and for cancer policy makers to reduce inequalities in childhood survival

Associations between fatigue impact and physical and neurobehavioural factors: An exploration in people with progressive multiple sclerosis

Background: Fatigue is common in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Understanding the relationship between fatigue, physical and neurobehavioural factors is important to inform future research and practice. Few studies explore this explicitly in people with progressive MS (pwPMS). // Objective: To explore relationships between self-reported fatigue, physical and neurobehavioural measures in a large, international progressive MS sample of cognitively impaired people recruited to the CogEx trial. // Methods: Baseline assessments of fatigue (Modified Fatigue Impact Scale; MFIS), aerobic capacity (VO2peak), time in moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA; accelerometery over seven-days), walking performance (6-minute walk test; 6MWT), self-reported walking difficulty (MS Walking Scale; MSWS-12), anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; HADS and Beck Depression Inventory-II; BDI-II), and disease impact (MS Impact Scale-29, MSIS-29) were assessed. Participants were categorised as fatigued (MFISTotal >=38) or non-fatigued (MFISTotal ≤38). // Statistical Analysis: Differences in individuals categorised as fatigued or non-fatigued were assessed (t-tests, chi square). Pearson's correlation and partial correlations (adjusted for EDSS score, country, sex, and depressive symptoms) determined associations with MFISTotal, MFISPhysical, MFISCognitive and MFISPsychosocial, and the other measures. Multivariable logistic regression evaluated the independent association of fatigue (categorised MFISTotal) with physical and neurobehavioural measures. // Results: The sample comprised 308 pwPMS (62 % female, 27 % primary progressive, 73 % secondary progressive), mean age 52.5 ± 7.2 yrs, median EDSS score 6.0 (4.5–6.5), mean MFISTotal 44.1 ± 17.1, with 67.2 % categorised as fatigued. Fatigued participants walked shorter distances (6MWT, p = 0.043), had worse MSWS-12 scores (p < 0.001), and lower average % in MVPA (p = 0.026). The magnitude of associations was mostly weak between MFISTotal and physical measures (r = 0.13 to 0.18), apart from the MSWS-12 where it was strong (r = 0.51). The magnitude of correlations were strong between the MFISTotal and neurobehavioural measures of anxiety (r = 0.56), depression (r = 0.59), and measures of disease impact (MSIS-physical r = 0.67; MSIS-mental r = 0.71). This pattern was broadly similar for the MSIF subscales. The multivariable model indicated a five-point increase in MSWS-12 was associated with a 14 % increase in the odds of being fatigued (OR [95 %CI]: 1.14 [1.07–1.22], p < 0.0001) // Conclusion: Management of fatigue should consider both physical and neurobehavioural factors, in cognitively impaired persons with progressive MS

Systems biological and mechanistic modelling of radiation-induced cancer

This paper summarises the five presentations at the First International Workshop on Systems Radiation Biology that were concerned with mechanistic models for carcinogenesis. The mathematical description of various hypotheses about the carcinogenic process, and its comparison with available data is an example of systems biology. It promises better understanding of effects at the whole body level based on properties of cells and signalling mechanisms between them. Of these five presentations, three dealt with multistage carcinogenesis within the framework of stochastic multistage clonal expansion models, another presented a deterministic multistage model incorporating chromosomal aberrations and neoplastic transformation, and the last presented a model of DNA double-strand break repair pathways for second breast cancers following radiation therapy

Cardiorespiratory fitness and free-living physical activity are not associated with cognition in persons with progressive multiple sclerosis: Baseline analyses from the CogEx study

Background: Aerobic exercise training (physical activity for improving cardiorespiratory fitness) represents a promising approach for managing cognitive impairment in multiple sclerosis (MS). However, there is limited evidence that levels of physical activity and fitness are associated with cognition in progressive MS. Objective: We examined associations among cardiorespiratory fitness, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), and cognitive performance in a large, international progressive MS sample. Methods: Two hundred forty European and North American persons with progressive MS underwent cardiorespiratory fitness measurement on a recumbent stepper, wore an ActiGraph GT3X + accelerometer for 7 days for measuring MVPA, and underwent the Brief International Cognitive Assessment in MS. Results: Cardiorespiratory fitness was not significantly correlated with Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT; r = −0.01; r = −0.04), California Verbal Learning Test-II (CVLT-II; r = 0.05; r = 0.05), or Brief Visuospatial Memory Test–Revised (BVMT-R; r = −0.14; r = −0.14) z-scores controlling for age, sex, and education. MVPA and SDMT ( r = 0.05), CVLT-II ( r = −0.07), and BVMT-R ( r = 0.01) z-scores were not significantly correlated. Conclusion: Cardiorespiratory fitness and MVPA were not associated with cognition in this large progressive MS sample, yet these outcomes represent critical manipulation checks for documenting the success of the CogEx trial. This highlights the importance of examining other exercise-related mechanisms-of-action for improving cognition in progressive MS. </jats:sec

Deregulation of MUC4 in gastric adenocarcinoma: potential pathobiological implication in poorly differentiated non-signet ring cell type gastric cancer

MUC4 is a large, heavily glycosylated transmembrane mucin, that is implicated in the pathogenesis of various types of cancers. To date, no extensive study has been done to check the expression and functional significance of MUC4 in different types of gastric adenocarcinomas. Here, we report the expression profile of MUC4 in gastric adenocarcinomas and its function in poorly differentiated gastric non-signet ring cell carcinoma (non-SRCC) type cells. Immunohistochemical analysis using tissue microarray (TMA) showed a significant difference in MUC4 expression between normal adjacent (n=45) and gastric adenocarcinoma (n=83; P<0.001). MUC4 expression was not associated with tumour type, stage or with the degree of differentiation. To gain further insight into the significance of MUC4 expression in gastric non-SRCC cells, MUC4 was ectopically expressed in AGS, a poorly differentiated gastric non-signet ring cell line. The MUC4 overexpressing cells (AGS-MUC4) showed a significant increase (P<0.005) in cell motility and a decrease in cellular aggregation as compared with the vector-transfected cells. Furthermore, in vivo tumorigenicity analysis revealed that animals transplanted with the MUC4 overexpressing cells (AGS-MUC4) had a greater incidence of tumours (83%) in comparison to empty vector control (17%). In addition, the expression of MUC4 resulted in enhanced expression of total cellular ErbB2 and phosphorylated ErbB2. In conclusion, our results showed that MUC4 is overexpressed in gastric adenocarcinoma tissues, and that it has a role in promoting aggressive properties in poorly differentiated gastric non-SRCC cells through the activation of the ErbB2 oncoprotein