Scale-dependent effects of density and habitat on foal survival

Identifying the most appropriate scale to study factors influencing life history is important to evolutionary ecology and wildlife management. For example, the scale at which density is assessed and explains variation in survival can affect how biologists observe and interpret population dynamics, which can influence plans for managing populations. Feral horses (Equus ferus caballus) contrast with most ungulates by exhibiting a mating system characterized by female-defense polygyny with persistent, non-territorial breeding groups (bands) and female-biased initial (natal) and subsequent (breeding) dispersal. We predicted that for horses, offspring movements coupled with female-biased breeding dispersal would increase the scale at which density best related to juvenile survival compared to species with greater female philopatry. From 2008 to 2013, we censused the population of feral horses on Sable Island, Canada. We annually computed individual-specific local densities for 442 foals (horses/km2 in radii of 2,000 m, 4,000 m, and 8,000 m fixed to a band’s centroid of movements) and whole-island (total) population density, group (band) size, and local access to surface freshwater, which affected movement patterns and selection of vegetation by females. The population of feral horses increased from 380 in 2008 to 559 in 2013. Overwinter survival of foals averaged 82.8%. Island-wide density was the most important predictor of foal mortality and was negatively associated with survival, with a lesser negative effect from local density. Increased access to surface freshwater (ponds) was an important predictor of foal survival but only at certain scales. Our study emphasizes the relevance of a multi-scale approach when analyzing the response of fitness components to changes in habitat and population processes, which may be influenced by the particular social organization of the species

Mean field variational bayes for elaborate distributions

We develop strategies for mean field variational Bayes approximate inference for Bayesian hierarchical models containing elaborate distributions. We loosely define elaborate distributions to be those having more complicated forms compared with common distributions such as those in the Normal and Gamma families. Examples are Asymmetric Laplace, Skew Normal and Generalized Extreme Value distributions. Such models suffer from the difficulty that the parameter updates do not admit closed form solutions. We circumvent this problem through a combination of (a) specially tailored auxiliary variables, (b) univariate quadrature schemes and (c) finite mixture approximations of troublesome density functions. An accuracy assessment is conducted and the new methodology is illustrated in an application. © 2011 International Society for Bayesian Analysis

Stages of development and injury: an epidemiological survey of young children presenting to an emergency department

<p><b>Background:</b> The aim of our study was to use a local (Glasgow, west of Scotland) version of a Canadian injury surveillance programme (CHIRPP) to investigate the relationship between the developmental stage of young (pre-school) children, using age as a proxy, and the occurrence (incidence, nature, mechanism and location) of injuries presenting to a Scottish hospital emergency department, in an attempt to replicate the findings of a recent study in Kingston, Canada.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> We used the Glasgow CHIRPP data to perform two types of analyses. First, we calculated injury rates for that part of the hospital catchment area for which reasonably accurate population denominators were available. Second, we examined detailed injury patterns, in terms of the circumstances, mechanisms, location and types of injury. We compared our findings with those of the Kingston researchers.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> A total of 17,793 injury records for children aged up to 7 years were identified over the period 1997–99. For 1997–2001, 6,188 were used to calculate rates in the west of the city only. Average annual age specific rates per 1000 children were highest in both males and females aged 12–35 months. Apart from the higher rates in Glasgow, the pattern of injuries, in terms of breakdown factors, mechanism, location, context, and nature of injury, were similar in Glasgow and Kingston.</p> <p><b>Conclusion:</b> We replicated in Glasgow, UK, the findings of a Canadian study demonstrating a correlation between the pattern of childhood injuries and developmental stage. Future research should take account of the need to enhance statistical power and explore the interaction between age and potential confounding variables such as socio-economic deprivation. Our findings highlight the importance of designing injury prevention interventions that are appropriate for specific stages of development in children.</p&gt

Dynein structure and power stroke

Dynein ATPases are microtubule motors that are critical to diverse processes such as vesicle transport and the beating of sperm tails; however, their mechanism of force generation is unknown. Each dynein comprises a head, from which a stalk and a stem emerge. Here we use electron microscopy and image processing to reveal new structural details of dynein c, an isoform from Chlamydomonas reinhardtii flagella, at the start and end of its power stroke. Both stem and stalk are flexible, and the stem connects to the head by means of a linker approximately 10 nm long that we propose lies across the head. With both ADP and vanadate bound, the stem and stalk emerge from the head 10 nm apart. However, without nucleotide they emerge much closer together owing to a change in linker orientation, and the coiled-coil stalk becomes stiffer. The net result is a shortening of the molecule coupled to an approximately 15-nm displacement of the tip of the stalk. These changes indicate a mechanism for the dynein power stroke

Climate change promotes parasitism in a coral symbiosis.

Coastal oceans are increasingly eutrophic, warm and acidic through the addition of anthropogenic nitrogen and carbon, respectively. Among the most sensitive taxa to these changes are scleractinian corals, which engineer the most biodiverse ecosystems on Earth. Corals' sensitivity is a consequence of their evolutionary investment in symbiosis with the dinoflagellate alga, Symbiodinium. Together, the coral holobiont has dominated oligotrophic tropical marine habitats. However, warming destabilizes this association and reduces coral fitness. It has been theorized that, when reefs become warm and eutrophic, mutualistic Symbiodinium sequester more resources for their own growth, thus parasitizing their hosts of nutrition. Here, we tested the hypothesis that sub-bleaching temperature and excess nitrogen promotes symbiont parasitism by measuring respiration (costs) and the assimilation and translocation of both carbon (energy) and nitrogen (growth; both benefits) within Orbicella faveolata hosting one of two Symbiodinium phylotypes using a dual stable isotope tracer incubation at ambient (26 °C) and sub-bleaching (31 °C) temperatures under elevated nitrate. Warming to 31 °C reduced holobiont net primary productivity (NPP) by 60% due to increased respiration which decreased host %carbon by 15% with no apparent cost to the symbiont. Concurrently, Symbiodinium carbon and nitrogen assimilation increased by 14 and 32%, respectively while increasing their mitotic index by 15%, whereas hosts did not gain a proportional increase in translocated photosynthates. We conclude that the disparity in benefits and costs to both partners is evidence of symbiont parasitism in the coral symbiosis and has major implications for the resilience of coral reefs under threat of global change

The incidence and clinical burden of respiratory syncytial virus disease identified through hospital outpatient presentations in Kenyan children

There is little information that describe the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated disease in the tropical African outpatient setting. Methods We studied a systematic sample of children aged <5 years presenting to a rural district hospital in Kenya with acute respiratory infection (ARI) between May 2002 and April 2004. We collected clinical data and screened nasal wash samples for RSV antigen by immunofluorescence. We used a linked demographic surveillance system to estimate disease incidence. Results Among 2143 children tested, 166 (8%) were RSV positive (6% among children with upper respiratory tract infection and 12% among children with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). RSV was more likely in LRTI than URTI (p<0.001). 51% of RSV cases were aged 1 year or over. RSV cases represented 3.4% of hospital outpatient presentations. Relative to RSV negative cases, RSV positive cases were more likely to have crackles (RR = 1.63; 95% CI 1.34–1.97), nasal flaring (RR = 2.66; 95% CI 1.40–5.04), in-drawing (RR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.47–3.40), fast breathing for age (RR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.03–1.75) and fever (RR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.33–1.80). The estimated incidence of RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTI, per 100,000 child years, among those aged <5 years was 767 and 283, respectively. Conclusion The burden of childhood RSV-associated URTI and LRTI presenting to outpatients in this setting is considerable. The clinical features of cases associated with an RSV infection were more severe than cases without an RSV diagnosis

Spatially homogeneous Lifshitz black holes in five dimensional higher derivative gravity

We consider spatially homogeneous Lifshitz black hole solutions in five dimensional higher derivative gravity theories, which can be possible near horizon geometries of some systems that are interesting in the framework of gauge/gravity duality. We show the solutions belonging to the nine Bianchi classes in the pure R^2 gravity. We find that these black holes have zero entropy at non-zero temperatures and this property is the same as the case of BTZ black holes in new massive gravity at the critical point. In the most general quadratic curvature gravity theories, we find new solutions in Bianchi Type I and Type IX cases.Comment: 15 pages, no figure; v2, refs added, version to appear in JHE

Predictors of failed attendances in a multi-specialty outpatient centre using electronic databases.

BACKGROUND: Failure to keep outpatient medical appointments results in inefficiencies and costs. The objective of this study is to show the factors in an existing electronic database that affect failed appointments and to develop a predictive probability model to increase the effectiveness of interventions. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on outpatient clinic attendances at Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore from 2000 to 2004. 22864 patients were randomly sampled for analysis. The outcome measure was failed outpatient appointments according to each patient's latest appointment. RESULTS: Failures comprised of 21% of all appointments and 39% when using the patients' latest appointment. Using odds ratios from the mutliple logistic regression analysis, age group (0.75 to 0.84 for groups above 40 years compared to below 20 years), race (1.48 for Malays, 1.61 for Indians compared to Chinese), days from scheduling to appointment (2.38 for more than 21 days compared to less than 7 days), previous failed appointments (1.79 for more than 60% failures and 4.38 for no previous appointments, compared with less than 20% failures), provision of cell phone number (0.10 for providing numbers compared to otherwise) and distance from hospital (1.14 for more than 14 km compared to less than 6 km) were significantly associated with failed appointments. The predicted probability model's diagnostic accuracy to predict failures is more than 80%. CONCLUSION: A few key variables have shown to adequately account for and predict failed appointments using existing electronic databases. These can be used to develop integrative technological solutions in the outpatient clinic