Useful heuristics

Decision-making is one of the core tasks in project management. Traditionally, optimization methods have been developed to support managers in finding the best solutions. Alternatively, decisions can be based on simple rules of thumb, or heuristics. Even though simple heuristics only require little in the way of time and information, they have been shown to outperform optimization methods in complex decision tasks across a wide range of situations. This chapter outlines relevant decision heuristics commonly used, demonstrates situations in which they outperform more complex decision algorithms and explains why and when simple heuristics provide powerful decision tools

Deciding with the eye: How the visually manipulated accessibility of infromation in memory influences decision behavior

Decision situations are typically characterized by uncertainty: Individuals do not know the values of different options on a criterion dimension. For example, consumers do not know which is the healthiest of several products. To make a decision, individuals can use information about cues that are probabilistically related to the criterion dimension, such as sugar content or the concentration of natural vitamins. In two experiments, we investigated how the accessibility of cue information in memory affects which decision strategy individuals rely on. The accessibility of cue information was manipulated by means of a newly developed paradigm, the spatial-memory-cueing paradigm, which is based on a combination of the looking-at-nothing phenomenon and the spatial-cueing paradigm. The results indicated that people use different decision strategies, depending on the validity of easily accessible information. If the easily accessible information is valid, people stop information search and decide according to a simple take-the-best heuristic. If, however, information that comes to mind easily has a low predictive validity, people are more likely to integrate all available cue information in a compensatory manner