Dynamics on expanding spaces: modeling the emergence of novelties

Novelties are part of our daily lives. We constantly adopt new technologies, conceive new ideas, meet new people, experiment with new situations. Occasionally, we as individuals, in a complicated cognitive and sometimes fortuitous process, come up with something that is not only new to us, but to our entire society so that what is a personal novelty can turn into an innovation at a global level. Innovations occur throughout social, biological and technological systems and, though we perceive them as a very natural ingredient of our human experience, little is known about the processes determining their emergence. Still the statistical occurrence of innovations shows striking regularities that represent a starting point to get a deeper insight in the whole phenomenology. This paper represents a small step in that direction, focusing on reviewing the scientific attempts to effectively model the emergence of the new and its regularities, with an emphasis on more recent contributions: from the plain Simon's model tracing back to the 1950s, to the newest model of Polya's urn with triggering of one novelty by another. What seems to be key in the successful modelling schemes proposed so far is the idea of looking at evolution as a path in a complex space, physical, conceptual, biological, technological, whose structure and topology get continuously reshaped and expanded by the occurrence of the new. Mathematically it is very interesting to look at the consequences of the interplay between the "actual" and the "possible" and this is the aim of this short review.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figure

Scaling Laws in Human Language

Zipf's law on word frequency is observed in English, French, Spanish, Italian, and so on, yet it does not hold for Chinese, Japanese or Korean characters. A model for writing process is proposed to explain the above difference, which takes into account the effects of finite vocabulary size. Experiments, simulations and analytical solution agree well with each other. The results show that the frequency distribution follows a power law with exponent being equal to 1, at which the corresponding Zipf's exponent diverges. Actually, the distribution obeys exponential form in the Zipf's plot. Deviating from the Heaps' law, the number of distinct words grows with the text length in three stages: It grows linearly in the beginning, then turns to a logarithmical form, and eventually saturates. This work refines previous understanding about Zipf's law and Heaps' law in language systems.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

Impact Factor: outdated artefact or stepping-stone to journal certification?

A review of Garfield's journal impact factor and its specific implementation as the Thomson Reuters Impact Factor reveals several weaknesses in this commonly-used indicator of journal standing. Key limitations include the mismatch between citing and cited documents, the deceptive display of three decimals that belies the real precision, and the absence of confidence intervals. These are minor issues that are easily amended and should be corrected, but more substantive improvements are needed. There are indications that the scientific community seeks and needs better certification of journal procedures to improve the quality of published science. Comprehensive certification of editorial and review procedures could help ensure adequate procedures to detect duplicate and fraudulent submissions.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, 6 table

The preventive services use self-efficacy (PRESS) scale in older women: development and psychometric properties

Background\ud Preventive services offered to older Americans are currently under-utilized despite considerable evidence regarding their health and economic benefits. Individuals with low self-efficacy in accessing these services need to be identified and provided self-efficacy enhancing interventions. Scales measuring self-efficacy in the management of chronic diseases exist, but do not cover the broad spectrum of preventive services and behaviors that can improve the health of older adults, particularly older women who are vulnerable to poorer health and lesser utilization of preventive services. This study aimed to evaluate the psychometric properties of a new preventive services use self-efficacy scale, by measuring its internal consistency reliability, assessing internal construct validity by exploring factor structure, and examining differences in self-efficacy scores according to participant characteristics.\ud \ud Methods\ud The Preventive Services Use Self-Efficacy (PRESS) Scale was developed by an expert panel at the University of Pittsburgh Center for Aging and Population Health - Prevention Research Center. It was administered to 242 women participating in an ongoing trial and the data were analyzed to assess its psychometric properties. An exploratory factor analysis with a principal axis factoring approach and orthogonal varimax rotation was used to explore the underlying structure of the items in the scale. The internal consistency of the subscales was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient.\ud \ud Results\ud The exploratory factor analysis defined five self-efficacy factors (self-efficacy for exercise, communication with physicians, self-management of chronic disease, obtaining screening tests, and getting vaccinations regularly) formed by 16 items from the scale. The internal consistency of the subscales ranged from .81 to .94. Participants who accessed a preventive service had higher self-efficacy scores in the corresponding sub-scale than those who did not.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud The 16-item PRESS scale demonstrates preliminary validity and reliability in measuring self-efficacy in the use of preventive services among older women. It can potentially be used to evaluate the impact of interventions designed to improve self-efficacy in the use of preventive services in community-dwelling older women