Appreciative Methods Applied to the Assessment of Complex Systems

No abstract availabl

Supplier quality improvement: the value of information under uncertainty

We consider supplier development decisions for prime manufacturers with extensive supply bases producing complex, highly engineered products. We propose a novel modelling approach to support supply chain managers decide the optimal level of investment to improve quality performance under uncertainty. We develop a Poisson–Gamma model within a Bayesian framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in non-conformance rates. Estimates are obtained to value a supplier quality improvement activity and assess if it is worth gaining more information to reduce epistemic uncertainty. The theoretical properties of our model provide new insights about the relationship between the degree of epistemic uncertainty, the effectiveness of development programmes, and the levels of investment. We find that the optimal level of investment does not have a monotonic relationship with the rate of effectiveness. If investment is deferred until epistemic uncertainty is removed then the expected optimal investment monotonically decreases as prior variance increases but only if the prior mean is above a critical threshold. We develop methods to facilitate practical application of the model to industrial decisions by a) enabling use of the model with typical data available to major companies and b) developing computationally efficient approximations that can be implemented easily. Application to a real industry context illustrates the use of the model to support practical planning decisions to learn more about supplier quality and to invest in improving supplier capability

The Effect of Financial Derivatives on the Financial Performance of Firms in the Financial Sector in Ghana

This paper provides evidence on the impact of financial derivatives on the performance of firms in the financial sector in Ghana. Secondary data on financial derivatives, controlled business risks and business performance in terms of return on investment are used for the period 2011-2015. Data are sourced from 23 randomly selected financial firms in Accra, Ghana. A quantitative research technique is used to test four hypotheses. A strong positive correlation between financial derivatives and controlled business risks is found, r (92) = .703, p < .05. Also, there is a strong positive correlation between financial derivatives and business performance in terms of ROI, r (92) = .961, p = .000. This means that the financial performance of businesses improves largely when they trade in financial derivatives. Financial derivatives significantly predict business performance at 5% significance level (t = 32.87, p = .000), where they account for 92.3% of the variation in business performance. Financial firms would, therefore, have to give priority to financial derivatives and their management to boost financial growth. Keywords: Financial derivatives, business risks, financial firms, financial performanc

Appreciative Methods Applied to the Assessment of Complex Systems

Complex systems have characteristics that challenge traditional systems engineering processes and methods. These characteristics have been defined in various ways. INCOSE has previously identified characteristics of complex systems and potential methods to deal with complexity in system development. The purpose of this paper is to provide definitions and describe distinguishing characteristics of complexity using example systems to illustrate approaches to assessing the extent of complexity. The paper applies Appreciative Inquiry to identify and assess complex system characteristics. The characteristics are used to examine several different examples of systems to illuminate areas of complexity. These examples range from seemingly simple systems to complicated systems to complex systems. Different tiers of complexity are identified as a result of the assessment. The paper also identified and introduces topics on managing complexity and the integrating system perspective that represent new directions for the engineering of complex systems. The Appreciative Inquiry approach provides a method for systems engineering practitioners to more readily identify complexity when they encounter it, and to deal more effectively with this complexity once it has been identified

Climate change impacts on current and future agricultural systems in the semi-arid regions of West Africa

Agriculture in the semi-arid regions of West Africa is mainly rain-fed with a large number of smallholder farmers dependent on it for their livelihoods. Farming systems are dominated by cereals and legumes with livestock playing a significant role in the functioning of the systems. In this paper, we use the AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment methods, which include a set of mid-century climate projections, biophysical (Decision Support Systems for Agro-technological Transfer; DSSAT and Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator; APSIM) and economic (trade-off analysis model: TOA-MD) models, representative agricultural pathways and global economic model projections to explore the impacts of climate change on the economic vulnerability of farm households in Nioro, Senegal. Our results indicate that most climate scenarios -except the hot-dry had positive impacts on peanuts which is one of the main crops in this production system. The effect of climate change on maize was negative and the impacts on millet were variable but changes are small. In tomorrow's production systems and socio-economic conditions, climate change would have positive impact on Nioro farmers livelihoods in almost all cases simulated. However, with low prices, climate change would have a negative impact of Nioro farmers' livelihoods in most cases. For Senegal, these results have significant policy implications, in particular on international trade and regional prices as peanut is one of the major export commodities

Lifetime cardiovascular management of patients with previous Kawasaki disease.

Kawasaki disease (KD) is an inflammatory disorder of young children, associated with vasculitis of the coronary arteries with subsequent aneurysm formation in up to one-third of untreated patients. Those who develop aneurysms are at life-long risk of coronary thrombosis or the development of stenotic lesions, which may lead to myocardial ischaemia, infarction or death. The incidence of KD is increasing worldwide, and in more economically developed countries, KD is now the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children. However, many clinicians in the UK are unaware of the disorder and its long-term cardiac complications, potentially leading to late diagnosis, delayed treatment and poorer outcomes. Increasing numbers of patients who suffered KD in childhood are transitioning to the care of adult services where there is significantly less awareness and experience of the condition than in paediatric services. The aim of this document is to provide guidance on the long-term management of patients who have vascular complications of KD and guidance on the emergency management of acute coronary complications. Guidance on the management of acute KD is published elsewhere

Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °c on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna

To reduce the risks of climate change, governments agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5 °C. Charting appropriate mitigation responses requires information on the costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming. In this assessment, a critical consideration is the impact on crop yields and yield variability in regions currently challenged by food insecurity. The current study assessed impacts of 1.5 °C versus 2.0 °C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum in the West African Sudan Savanna using two crop models that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows. As sustainable intensification is promoted in the region for improving food security, simulations were conducted for both current fertilizer use and for an intensification case (fertility not limiting). With current fertilizer use, results indicated 2% units higher losses for maize and sorghum with 2.0 °C compared to 1.5 °C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario. In the intensification case, yield losses due to climate change were larger than with current fertilizer levels. However, despite the larger losses, yields were always two to three times higher with intensification, irrespective of the warming scenario. Though yield variability increased with intensification, there was no interaction with warming scenario. Risk and market analysis are needed to extend these results to understand implications for food security

Serious mental illnesses associated with receipt of surgery in retrospective analysis of patients in the Veterans Health Administration

BACKGROUND: The STOPP study (Surgical Treatment Outcomes for Patients with Psychiatric Disorders) analyzed variation in rates and types of major surgery by serious mental illness status among patients treated in the Veterans Health Administration (VA). VA patients are veterans of United States military service who qualify for federal care by reason of disability, special service experiences, or poverty. METHODS: STOPP conducted a secondary data analysis of medical record extracts for seven million VA patients treated Oct 2005-Sep 2009. The retrospective study aggregated inpatient surgery events, comorbid diagnoses, demographics, and postoperative 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Serious mental illness -- schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, posttraumatic stress disorder, or major depressive disorder, was identified in 12 % of VA patients. Over the 4-year study period, 321,131 patients (4.5 %) underwent surgery with same-day preoperative or immediate post-operative admission including14 % with serious mental illness. Surgery patients were older (64 vs. 61 years) and more commonly African-American, unmarried, impoverished, highly disabled (24 % vs 12 % were Priority 1), obese, with psychotic disorder (4.3 % vs 2.9 %). Among surgery patients, 3.7 % died within 30 days postop. After covariate adjustment, patients with pre-existing serious mental illness were relatively less likely to receive surgery (adjusted odds ratios 0.4-0.7). CONCLUSIONS: VA patients undergoing major surgery appeared, in models controlling for comorbidity and demographics, to disproportionately exclude those with serious mental illness. While VA preferentially treats the most economically and medically disadvantaged veterans, the surgery subpopulation may be especially ill, potentially warranting increased postoperative surveillance