Validation of Community Models: 2. Development of a Baseline, Using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge Model

This paper is the second in a series providing independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. Here I present a comprehensive validation of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare the next generation of comparable forecasting models. The WSA model is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth up to 4 days into the future. Given its importance to both the research and forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically and independently. I offer just such an independent and systematic validation. I report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests synoptic line of sight magnetograms. For this study I generated model results for monthly magnetograms from multiple observatories, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2074. I compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources and performance at quiet and active times. I also consider the ability of the WSA model to forecast both sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind and reversals in the polarity of the radial component of the IMF. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model as well as the current and future generation of magnetohydrodynamic models under development for forecasting use

Modeling Active Region Evolution - A New LWS TR and T Strategic Capability Model Suite

In 2006 the LWS TR&T Program funded us to develop a strategic capability model of slowly evolving coronal active regions. In this poster we report on the overall design, and status of our new modeling suite. Our design features two coronal field models, a non-linear force free field model and a global 3D MHD code. The suite includes supporting tools and a user friendly GUI which will enable users to query the web for relevant magnetograms, download them, process them to synthesize a sequence of photospheric magnetograms and associated photospheric flow field which can then be applied to drive the coronal model innner boundary, run the coronal models and finally visualize the results

Electron impact polarization expected in solar EUV lines from flaring chromospheres/transition regions

We have evaluated lower bounds on the degree of impact Extreme Ultraviolet/Ultraviolet (EUV/UV) line polarization expected during solar flares. This polarization arises from collisional excitation by energetic electrons with non-Maxwellian velocity distributions. Linear polarization was observed in the S I 1437 A line by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter/Solar Maximum Mission (UVSP/SMM) during a flare on 15 July 1980. An early interpretation suggested that impact excitation by electrons propagating through the steep temperature gradient of the flaring transition region/high chromosphere produced this polarization. Our calculations show that the observed polarization in this UV line cannot be due to this effect. We find instead that, in some flare models, the energetic electrons can produce an impact polarization of a few percent in EUV neutral helium lines (i.e., lambda lambda 522, 537, and 584 A)

Validation of Community Models: Identifying Events in Space Weather Model Timelines

I develop and document a set of procedures which test the quality of predictions of solar wind speed and polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) made by coupled models of the ambient solar corona and heliosphere. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used to illustrate the application of these validation procedures. I present an algorithm which detects transitions of the solar wind from slow to high speed. I also present an algorithm which processes the measured polarity of the outward directed component of the IMF. This removes high-frequency variations to expose the longer-scale changes that reflect IMF sector changes. I apply these algorithms to WSA model predictions made using a small set of photospheric synoptic magnetograms obtained by the Global Oscillation Network Group as input to the model. The results of this preliminary validation of the WSA model (version 1.6) are summarized

Modeling coronal magnetic field using spherical geometry: cases with several active regions

The magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere structure the plasma, store free magnetic energy and produce a wide variety of active solar phenomena, like flare and coronal mass ejections(CMEs). The distribution and strength of magnetic fields are routinely measured in the solar surface(photosphere). Therefore, there is considerable interest in accurately modeling the 3D structure of the coronal magnetic field using photospheric vector magnetograms. Knowledge of the 3D structure of magnetic field lines also help us to interpret other coronal observations, e.g., EUV images of the radiating coronal plasma. Nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) models are thought to be viable tools for those task. Usually those models use Cartesian geometry. However, the spherical nature of the solar surface cannot be neglected when the field of view is large. In this work, we model the coronal magnetic field above multiple active regions using NLFFF extrapolation code using vector magnetograph data from the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun survey (SOLIS)/ Vector Spectromagnetograph (VSM) as a boundary conditions. We compare projections of the resulting magnetic field lines solutions with their respective coronal EUV-images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) observed on October 11, 2011 and November 13, 2012. This study has found that the NLFFF model in spherical geometry reconstructs the magnetic configurations for several active regions which agrees with observations. During October 11, 2011 observation, there are substantial number of trans-equatorial loops carrying electric current.Comment: 3 Figures, Submitted to Astrophysics and Space Science Journa

Intercomparison of numerical models of flaring coronal loops

The proposed Benchmark Problem consists of an infinitesimal magnetic flux tube containing a low-beta plasma. The field strength is assumed to be so large that the plasma can move only along the flux tube, whose shape remains invariant with time (i.e., the fluid motion is essentially one-dimensional). The flux tube cross section is taken to be constant over its entire length. In planar view the flux tube has a semi-circular shape, symmetric about its midpoint s = s sub max and intersecting the chromosphere-corona interface (CCI) perpendicularly at each foot point. The arc length from the loop apex to the CCI is 10,000 km. The flux tube extends an additional 2000 km below the CCI to include the chromosphere, which initially has a uniform temperature of 8000 K. The temperature at the top of the loop was fixed initially at 2 X 1 million K. The plasma is assumed to be a perfect gas (gamma = 5/3), consisting of pure hydrogen which is considered to be fully ionized at all temperatures. For simplicity, moreover, the electron and ion temperatures are taken to be everywhere equal at all times (corresponding to an artificially enhanced electron-ion collisional coupling). While there was more-or-less unanimous agreement as to certain global properties of the system behavior (peak temperature reached, thermal-wave time scales, etc.), no two groups could claim satisfactory accord when a more detailed comparison of solutions was attempted