Large deviations for i.i.d. replications of the total progeny of a Galton--Watson process

The Galton--Watson process is the simplest example of a branching process. The relationship between the offspring distribution, and, when the extinction occurs almost surely, the distribution of the total progeny is well known. In this paper, we illustrate the relationship between these two distributions when we consider the large deviation rate function (provided by Cram\'{e}r's theorem) for empirical means of i.i.d. random variables. We also consider the case with a random initial population. In the final part, we present large deviation results for sequences of estimators of the offspring mean based on i.i.d. replications of total progeny.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.15559/16-VMSTA72 in the Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications (https://www.i-journals.org/vtxpp/VMSTA) by VTeX (http://www.vtex.lt/

Multivariate fractional Poisson processes and compound sums

In this paper we present multivariate space-time fractional Poisson processes by considering common random time-changes of a (finite-dimensional) vector of independent classical (non-fractional) Poisson processes. In some cases we also consider compound processes. We obtain some equations in terms of some suitable fractional derivatives and fractional difference operators, which provides the extension of known equations for the univariate processes.Comment: 19 pages Keywords: conditional independence, Fox-Wright function, fractional differential equations, random time-chang

Large deviations for risk measures in finite mixture models

Due to their heterogeneity, insurance risks can be properly described as a mixture of different fixed models, where the weights assigned to each model may be estimated empirically from a sample of available data. If a risk measure is evaluated on the estimated mixture instead of the (unknown) true one, then it is important to investigate the committed error. In this paper we study the asymptotic behaviour of estimated risk measures, as the data sample size tends to infinity, in the fashion of large deviations. We obtain large deviation results by applying the contraction principle, and the rate functions are given by a suitable variational formula; explicit expressions are available for mixtures of two models. Finally, our results are applied to the most common risk measures, namely the quantiles, the Expected Shortfall and the shortfall risk measures

Correlated fractional counting processes on a finite time interval

We present some correlated fractional counting processes on a finite time interval. This will be done by considering a slight generalization of the processes in Borges et al. (2012). The main case concerns a class of space-time fractional Poisson processes and, when the correlation parameter is equal to zero, the univariate distributions coincide with the ones of the space-time fractional Poisson process in Orsingher and Polito (2012). On the other hand, when we consider the time fractional Poisson process, the multivariate finite dimensional distributions are different from the ones presented for the renewal process in Politi et al. (2011). Another case concerns a class of fractional negative binomial processes

Random time-change with inverses of multivariate subordinators: governing equations and fractional dynamics

It is well-known that compositions of Markov processes with inverse subordinators are governed by integro-differential equations of generalized fractional type. This kind of processes are of wide interest in statistical physics as they are connected to anomalous diffusions. In this paper we consider a generalization; more precisely we mean componentwise compositions of $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued Markov processes with the components of an independent multivariate inverse subordinator. As a possible application, we present a model of anomalous diffusion in anisotropic medium, which is obtained as a weak limit of suitable continuous-time random walks.Comment: 24 page

Asymptotic results for random flights

The random flights are (continuous time) random walkswith finite velocity. Often, these models describe the stochastic motions arising in biology. In this paper we study the large time asymptotic behavior of random flights. We prove the large deviation principle for conditional laws given the number of the changes of direction, and for the non-conditional laws of some standard random flights.Comment: 3 figure

Large deviations for fractional Poisson processes

We prove large deviation principles for two versions of fractional Poisson processes. Firstly we consider the main version which is a renewal process; we also present large deviation estimates for the ruin probabilities of an insurance model with constant premium rate, i.i.d. light tail claim sizes, and a fractional Poisson claim number process. We conclude with the alternative version where all the random variables are weighted Poisson distributed. Keywords: Mittag Leffler function; renewal process; random time ch

Asymptotic behavior of the finite-time expected time-integrated negative part of some risk processes and optimal reserve allocation

In the renewal risk model, we study the asymptotic behavior of the expected time-integrated negative part of the process. This risk measure has been introduced by Loisel (2005). Both heavy-tailed and light-tailed claim amount distributions are investigated. The time horizon may be finite or infinite. We apply the results to an optimal allocation problem with two lines of business of an insurance company. The asymptotic behavior of the two optimal initial reserves are computed.Ruin theory; heavy-tailed and light-tailed claim size distribution; risk measure; optimal reserve allocation

On the large deviations of a class of modulated additive processes

We prove that the large deviation principle holds for a class of processes inspired by semi-Markov additive processes. For the processes we consider, the sojourn times in the phase process need not be independent and identically distributed. Moreover the state selection process need not be independent of the sojourn times. We assume that the phase process takes values in a finite set and that the order in which elements in the set, called states, are visited is selected stochastically. The sojourn times determine how long the phase process spends in a state once it has been selected. The main tool is a representation formula for the sample paths of the empirical laws of the phase process. Then, based on assumed joint large deviation behavior of the state selection and sojourn processes, we prove that the empirical laws of the phase process satisfy a sample path large deviation principle. From this large deviation principle, the large deviations behavior of a class of modulated additive processes is deduced. As an illustration of the utility of the general results, we provide an alternate proof of results for modulated L´evy processes. As a practical application of the results, we calculate the large deviation rate function for a processes that arises as the International Telecommunications Union’s standardized stochastic model of two-way conversational speech

Synergic action of organic matter-microorganism-plant in soil bioremediation

Bioremediation is a natural process, which relies on bacteria, fungi, and plants to degrade, break down, transform, and/or essentially remove contaminants, ensuring the conservation of the ecosystem biophysical properties. Since microorganisms are the former agents for the degradation of organic contaminants in soil, the application of organic matter (such as compost, sewage sludge, etc.), which increases microbial density and also provides nutrients and readily degradable organic matter (bioenhancement-bioaugmentation) can be considered useful to accelerate the contaminant degradation. Moreover, the organic matter addition, by means of the increase of cation exchange capacity, soil porosity and water-holding capacity, enhances the soil health and provides a medium satisfactory for microorganism activity. Plants have been also recently used in soil reclamation strategy both for their ability to uptake, transform, and store the contaminants (Atagana et al., 2011), and to promote the degradation of contaminants by microbes at rhizosphere level. It is widely recognized that plant, through organic materials, nutrients and oxygen supply, produces a rich microenvironment capable of promoting microbial proliferation and activity