Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals

This paper suggests that exchange rates are related to economic fundamentals over medium-term horizons, such as a month or longer. We find from a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts that good exchange rate forecasts benefit from the proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relation is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, this relation is stronger during obvious fundamental misalignment. This occurs when exchange rates substantially deviate from their PPP values, when interest rate differentials are high and when exchange rates are less influenced by strong momentum. --Exchange Rate Determination,Individual Expectations,Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals

Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, the relationship is stronger during phases when the impact from fundamentals is more obvious, e.g., when exchange rates substantially deviate from their PPP values. Finally, forecasters largely agree that an interest rate increase relates to a currency appreciation, but only good forecasters get expected interest rates right

Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals

This paper suggests that exchange rates are related to economic fundamentals over medium-term horizons, such as a month or longer. We find from a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts that good exchange rate forecasts benefit from the proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relation is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, this relation is stronger during obvious fundamental misalignment. This occurs when exchange rates substantially deviate from their PPP values, when interest rate differentials are high and when exchange rates are less influenced by strong momentum

Theta functions and arithmetic quotients of loop groups

In this paper we observe that isomorphism classes of certain metrized vector bundles over P^1-{0,infinity} can be parameterized by arithmetic quotients of loop groups. We construct an asymptotic version of theta functions, which are defined on these quotients. Then we prove the convergence and extend the theta functions to loop symplectic groups. We interpret them as sections of line bundles over an infinite dimensional torus, discuss the relations with loop Heisenberg groups, and give an asymptotic multiplication formula.Comment: 16 page

Antitachycardia Pacemakers in Congenital Heart Disease

BackgroundMany patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) acquire rhythm abnormalities related to their repair, most commonly intraatrial reentrant tachycardia (IART). Treatment of IART in CHD is often multifaceted, and may include medication, ablation, and pacing. Evidence regarding the use of antitachycardia pacing therapies is limited.ObjectiveThe aim of the study is to define the use and efficacy of antitachycardia pacing in patients with CHD at a single center.ResultsEighty implants were performed on 72 patients between 2000 and 2010. Follow‐up data of more than 3 months were available for 56 patients; median follow‐up time was 2.8 years. Twenty (36%) patients received successful antitachycardia pacing at a median 1.3 years postimplant. For those patients with IART after implant, antitachycardia pacing was successful in 57%. Patients with two‐ventricle repairs were more likely to have successful antitachycardia pacing than those with one‐ventricle palliation (45% vs. 17%, P = .04). Patients with documented IART had more successful antitachycardia pacing than those with no documented atrial tachycardia prior to implant (46% vs. 7%, P = .006). Early complications of antitachycardia pacemaker implant occurred in six patients (11%); late complications after implant occurred in three patients (5.6%). Of the initial 72 patients implanted, there were six deaths (8%).ConclusionsAntitachycardia pacing therapies were successful in the majority of CHD patients who had IART after implant. Patients without documented atrial tachycardia prior to implant were unlikely to require or receive successful therapy from antitachycardia pacemaker. Those patients postatrial switch procedure who had documented IART prior to implant had the highest incidence of successful antitachycardia pacing therapies. Antitachycardia pacemaker implantation is an adjunct to the management of IART in CHD patients, but may not benefit patients who have not yet demonstrated IART.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111221/1/chd12230.pd

Utility of Intrathoracic Impedance Monitoring in Pediatric and Congenital Heart Disease

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/99042/1/pace12134.pd

The re-birth of the "beat": A hyperlocal online newsgathering model

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in Journalism Practice, 6(5-6), 754 - 765, 2012, copyright Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/17512786.2012.667279.Scholars have long lamented the death of the 'beat' in news journalism. Today's journalists generate more copy than they used to, a deluge of PR releases often keeping them in the office, and away from their communities. Consolidation in industry has dislodged some journalists from their local sources. Yet hyperlocal online activity is thriving if journalists have the time and inclination to engage with it. This paper proposes an exploratory, normative schema intended to help local journalists systematically map and monitor their own hyperlocal online communities and contacts, with the aim of re-establishing local news beats online as networks. This model is, in part, technologically-independent. It encompasses proactive and reactive news-gathering and forward planning approaches. A schema is proposed, developed upon suggested news-gathering frameworks from the literature. These experiences were distilled into an iterative, replicable schema for local journalism. This model was then used to map out two real-world 'beats' for local news-gathering. Journalists working within these local beats were invited to trial the models created. It is hoped that this research will empower journalists by improving their information auditing, and could help re-define journalists' relationship with their online audiences

Amiodarone in Pediatric Patients

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75189/1/j.1540-8167.1986.tb01730.x.pd