Trade (dis)integration: the sudden death of NAFTA

This paper uses a PVAR model to study the macroeconomic effects of trade disintegration among NAFTA members. The results reveal substantial asymmetric responses, showing that the US is the most affected economy from a sudden negative trade integration shock. Moreover, Canada and the US are found to be relatively more interconnected with each other compared to the Mexican economy. Our findings question the US decision to push for the renegotiation of the NAFTA agreement

The financial development and growth nexus: a meta-analysis

We conduct a meta-analysis of the literature of financial development and economic growth. We cover a large number of empirical studies and estimations that have been published in journal articles. We measure the degree of heterogeneity and identify the causes of the observed differentiation. Among the most significant factors behind this heterogeneity is the choice of financial-variable proxies, the kind of data used as well as whether a study takes into account the issue of endogeneity. Our results suggest that the empirical literature on the finance-growth nexus is not free from publication bias. Also, a genuine positive effect exists between financial development and economic growth.</p

Inflation targeting and inflation convergence: international evidence

We examine whether the inflation rates of the countries that pursue inflation targeting policies have converged as opposed to the experience of the OECD non-inflation targeters. Using a methodology introduced by Pesaran (2007a), we examine the stationarity properties 0f the inflation differentials. This approach has the advantage of avoiding setting arbitrarily a specific country as the benchmark economy. Our results indicate that the inflation rates converge irrespective of the monetary policy framework

The financial and fiscal stress interconnectedness : the case of G5 economies

In this paper, we focus on the financial and fiscal stress transmission for the G5 economies. Using financial and fiscal stress indexes, we assess the spillovers within each economy, as well as the cross-sectional effects. Two supplementary methodologies, measuring the degree of interconnectedness, are employed. Our findings indicate that the interactions between these two kinds of distress are intensive, especially during and after the Global Financial Crisis outbreak. The above reiterates the necessity for coordinated macroprudential policies, as a means to confine the adverse effects of excessive financial and fiscal stress

Does the Left spend more? An econometric survey of partisan politics

This study provides a quantitative review of the empirical literature on partisan politics. Given the voluminous work on this subject, we focus on the relationship between government ideology and public spending. By exploiting a dataset of 800 estimates from papers published between 1992 and 2018, we find no evidence of publication bias. Taking into account the differences in the various categories of spending, proxies of ideologies, estimations methods, as well as, data and publication characteristics, we find evidence of a small positive and significant effect

Financial connectedness between Eurozone core &amp; periphery: a disaggregated view

This paper examines the financial stress interconnectedness among GIIPS economies and Germany. Based on market level financial stress indices, it examines the stress transmission process as well as the causal network relationships in banking sector, bond, money and stock markets. The period under investigation, 2001-2013, allows to test the effects of financial crisis of 2008 as well as the subsequent European sovereign crisis. Using two alternative techniques for connectedness analysis, our evidence suggests that the peripheral economies of Italy and Spain play a highly significant role in the stress transmission in all markets, especially in the cases of banks and equity markets. Moreover, we visualize our results using network analysis. Contrary to common wisdom, Portugal, Ireland, and mainly Greece, do not seem to have an important role in amplifying stress levels

Trade (dis)integration: the sudden death of NAFTA

This paper uses a structural PVAR model to study the macroeconomic effects of trade disintegration among NAFTA members. The results reveal substantial asymmetric responses, showing that the US is the most affected economy from a sudden negative trade integration shock. Moreover, Canada and the US are found to be relatively more interconnected with each other compared to the Mexican economy. Our findings question the US decision to push for the renegotiation of the NAFTA agreement

Dynamic spillover effects across petroleum spot and futures volatilities, trading volume and open interest

YesThis paper examines the existence of dynamic spillover effects across petroleum based commodities and among spot-futures volatilities, trading volume and open interest. Realized volatilities of spot-futures markets are used as inputs to estimate a VAR model following Diebold and Yilmaz (2014, 2015) and distinguish dynamic spillovers in total and net effects. Results reveal the existence of large and time-varying spillovers among the spot-futures volatilities and across petroleum-based commodities when examined pairwise. In addition, speculative pressures, as reflected by futures trading volume, and hedging pressures, as reflected by open interest, are shown to transmit large and persistent spillovers to the spot and futures volatilities of crude oil and heating oil-gasoline markets, respectively