An Analysis of the Philippine Business Process Outsourcing Industry

"Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos, Gemma Estrada, and Jesus Felipe provide an analysis of the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry in the Philippines. The paper provides a profile of the BPO sector; makes comparisons with other large BPO providers; and uses input–output tables to estimate intersectoral linkages and the potential impact of the sector on employment. Constraints on the sector's growth are discussed.

Empirical Assessment of Sustainability and Feasibility of Government Debt: The Philippines Case

This paper develops empirical methods of assessing the sustainability and feasibility of public debt using the No Ponzi Game criterion, using the Philippines as the testing case. Both historical data and forecasts generated by a quarterly macro-econometric model are used in the assessment. Stochastic simulations are carried out to mimic future uncertainty. The test results show that, up to the end of the present administration in 2010, the Philippine government debt is not sustainable but weakly feasible, that the feasibility is vulnerable to major adverse shocks, and that simple budgetary deficit control policy is inadequate for achieving debt sustainability or strengthening feasibility.Government debt, Ponzi game, Rollover bond portfolio

Measuring Regional Market Integration in Developing Asia: a Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach

This paper examines empirically the dynamic process of regional market integration in twelve Asian economies using a new modeling approach combining DF with ECM. This approach enables us to obtain latent regional dynamic factors which correspond well with the 'foreign' parity variables in theory when a market is imperfectly integrated and which act, in explaining domestic short-run price adjustments, as leading-indicators in an errorcorrection form. The power of the DF-ECM approach is illustrated in its application to measuring market integration in the developing Asian region using monthly data from the past decade.Law of one price; market integration; dynamic factor; error-correction model

Determinants of Structural Changes of Food Exports from Developing Countries

Over the past three decades, there has been a rapid expansion of processed food exports in developing countries, replacing traditional agriculture exports such as coffee and tea. However, this development and its policy implications have received little attention in the literature. This paper aims to redress this oversight by providing an overview of key characteristics and growth patterns of processed food exports in developing countries. The determinants of structural changes toward processed food exports in developing countries are examined using panel data econometric analysis. The results suggests that trade policy openness, large domestic market, good macroeconomic management especially in terms of price stability, as well as adequate financial support and infrastructure are the key factors that influence the structural changes toward processed food products

An assessment of the community mortgage programs of the social housing finance corporation

The Community Mortgage Program (CMP) is a financing scheme that enables organized residents of slums to borrow for land purchase and housing development. It is already considered to be the most innovative and responsive government housing program in the Philippines. Nevertheless, the CMP has yet a number of weaknesses that have not been given much attention in the years of program implementation. These issues pertain to program targeting, service delivery and organization. This study aims to review the current processes and overall performance of CMP including its variants - the localized CMP and the High Density Housing Program (HDHF). It also provides recommendations on how the identified problems can be addressed

A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the general→simple dynamic specification approach is adopted. Great efforts have been made to achieve the best possible blend of standard long-run theories, country-specific institutional features and short-run dynamics in data. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful.Macroeconometric model, Chinese economy, Forecasts, Simulations

Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)

This paper compares forecast performance of the ALI method and the MESMs and seeks ways of improving the ALI method. Inflation and GDP growth form the forecast objects for comparison, using data from China, Indonesia and the Philippines. The ALI method is found to produce better forecasts than those by MESMs in general, but the method is found to involve greater uncertainty in choosing indicators, mixing data frequencies and utilizing unrestricted VARs. Two possible improvements are found helpful to reduce the uncertainty: (i) give theory priority in choosing indicators and include theory-based disequilibrium shocks in the indicator sets; and (ii) reduce the VARs by means of the general→specific model reduction procedure.Dynamic factor models, Model reduction, VAR

A Small Macroeconometric Model of the Philippine Economy

This paper describes a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the Philippine economy. The model consists of sectors of private consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and labor. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations. The tracking performance of the model, both within-sample and out-of-sample, is evaluated and found satisfactory. Policy simulations indicate it is crucial that the Philippine government address its debt problem for it to achieve higher future growth. Oil price simulations also show the country is highly vulnerable to external shocks

A Small Macroeconometric Model of the People's Republic of China

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the economy of People's Republic of China. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the general simple dynamic specification approach is adopted in order to ensure the best possible blend of a priori long-run theories with a posteriori identified short-run factors, as well as country-specific features. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful