Scientific and Technical Contribution to the Development of an Overall Health Strategy in the Area of GMOs

The present report is the outcome of Project "Scientific and technical contribution to the development of an overall health strategy in the area of GMOs" carried out by the JRC-IHCP Biotechnology & GMOs Unit in the frame of study contract CT 30249, requested by the European Parliament Committee on Industry, Research and Energy. The study provides current knowledge on the issue and up-to-date opinions of experts on the potential short, medium and long term health impact associated with the consumption of GMOs. In addition, it contains the outcome of a research component that lead to the development of a multi-target analytical tool for the simultaneous identification of 39 GMOs.JRC.I.6-Biotechnology and GMO

NPK: Will there be enough plant nutrients to feed a world of 9 billion in 2050?

Will there be enough plant nutrients to feed a world of 9 billion in 2050? is the central question addressed by a JRC study. This exercise was based on consultations with experts and a thematic workshop focused on three areas of interest: 1) the demand for fertilizers to sustain crop production necessary to feed the world in 2050; 2) perspectives on the supply of Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P) and Potassium (K) to world agriculture and 3) the role of innovation and technology in changing the match between demand and supply of fertilizers. Implications of the main findings for current EU and international policies were addressed. Overall, analysis of existing literature and discussions with major experts and stakeholders led to the conclusion that while the situation is currently not critical with respect to the production and availability of plant nutrients, it is important to remain vigilant. The question of reserves (P and K), access, changing geopolitical conditions, economic development, energy costs (mainly for N) and environmental constraints (N and P) could lead to shortfalls and possibly crisis situations in some regions of the world. The situation of Africa deserves particular attention as production, access and use of fertilizers represent key limiting factors in boosting food production in that continent.JRC.A.1-Science Advice to Polic

Spatial-Temporal Correlation Analyses of Global Burned Surface Time Series from Remote Sensing Data (1982-1999)

Daily global observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) on the series of meteorological satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) between 1982 and 1999 (17 years) were used to generate a new weekly global burnt surface product at a resolution of 8km. Comparison with independently available information on fire locations and timing suggest that whilst the time-series cannot yet be used to make accuracy and quantitative estimates of global burnt area, it does provide a reliable estimate of changes in location, season and interannual variability of burning on the global scale (Carmona-Moreno et al., 2005.a). This paper deals with the connection analysis of this time series and “El Niño” Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The spatial-temporal inter-correlation analyses show likely connections between both phenomena at global scale during the period considered even if these results need to be confirmed with longer time series (>40 years) of data.JRC.DDG.H.3-Global environement monitorin

Determination of World's Humid Tropical Deforestation Rates during the 1990's. Methodology and Results of the TREES-II Research Programme.

Abstract not availableJRC.H-Institute for environment and sustainability (Ispra

Validation of active forest fires detected by MSG-SEVIRI by means of MODIS hot spots and AWiFS images.

The detection of forest fires and the determination of their parameters have been usually carried out by polar-orbit sensors: AVHRR, (A)ATSR, BIRD and MODIS mainly. However, their time resolution prevents them from operating in real time. In contrast, the new geostationary sensors have very appropriate capacities for the observation of the Earth and monitoring of forest fires, as is being proved. GOES, MSG and MTSAT are already operative and they have led the international community to think that the global observation network in real time may become a reality. The implementation of this network is the aim of the Global Observations of Forest Cover and Land Cover Dynamics (GOFC/GOLD) FIRE Mapping and Monitoring program, focused internationally on taking decisions concerning the research of the Global Change. In this paper, the operation in real time by the MSG-SEVIRI sensor over the Iberian Peninsula is studied. On the other hand, the reliability of validation results by means of polar sensors, with better spatial resolution, is difficult to analyze due to errors caused by confused location of fires. This paper tries to find the most appropriate spatial scale to carry out comparison between Terra/Aqua-MODIS and Resourcesat1-AWiFS image

Photochemistry in biomass burning plumes and implications for tropospheric ozone over the tropical South Atlantic

Photochemistry occuring in biomass burning plumes over the tropical south Atlantic is analyzed using data collected during the Transport and Atmospheric Chemistry Near the Equator‐Atlantic aircraft expedition conducted during the tropical dry season in September 1992 and a photochemical point model. Enhancement ratios (ΔY/ΔX, where Δ indicates the enhancement of a compound in the plume above the local background mixing ratio, Y are individual hydrocarbons, CO, O3, N2O, HNO3, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), CH2O, acetone, H2O2, CH3OOH, HCOOH, CH3COOH or aerosols and X is CO or CO2) are reported as a function of plume age inferred from the progression of Δnon‐methane hydrocarbons/ΔCO enhancement ratios. Emission, formation, and loss of species in plumes can be diagnosed from progression of enhancement ratios from fresh to old plumes. O3 is produced in plumes over at least a 1 week period with mean ΔO3/ΔCO = 0.7 in old plumes. However, enhancement ratios in plumes can be influenced by changing background mixing ratios and by photochemical loss of CO. We estimate a downward correction of ∼20% in enhancement ratios in old plumes relative to ΔCO to correct for CO loss. In a case study of a large persistent biomass burning plume at 4‐km we found elevated concentrations of PAN in the fresh plume. The degradation of PAN helped maintain NOx mixing ratios in the plume where, over the course of a week, PAN was converted to HNO3. Ozone production in the plume was limited by the availability of NOx, and because of the short lifetime of O3 at 4‐km, net ozone production in the plume was negligible. Within the region, the majority of O3 production takes place in air above median CO concentration, indicating that most O3 production occurs in plumes. Scaling up from the mean observed ΔO3/ΔCO in old plumes, we estimate a minimum regional O3 production of 17×1010molecules O3 cm−2 s−1. This O3 production rate is sufficient to fully explain the observed enhancement in tropospheric O3 over the tropical South Atlantic during the dry season

Unexpected Ecological Resilience in Bornean Orangutans and Implications for Pulp and Paper Plantation Management

Ecological studies of orangutans have almost exclusively focused on populations living in primary or selectively logged rainforest. The response of orangutans to severe habitat degradation remains therefore poorly understood. Most experts assume that viable populations cannot survive outside undisturbed or slightly disturbed forests. This is a concern because nearly 75% of all orangutans live outside protected areas, where degradation of natural forests is likely to occur, or where these are replaced by planted forests. To improve our understanding of orangutan survival in highly altered forest habitats, we conducted population density surveys in two pulp and paper plantation concessions in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. These plantations consist of areas planted with fast-growing exotics intermixed with stands of highly degraded forests and scrublands. Our rapid surveys indicate unexpectedly high orangutan densities in plantation landscapes dominated by Acacia spp., although it remains unclear whether such landscapes can maintain long-term viable populations. These findings indicate the need to better understand how plantation-dominated landscapes can potentially be incorporated into orangutan conservation planning. Although we emphasize that plantations have less value for overall biodiversity conservation than natural forests, they could potentially boost the chances of orangutan survival. Our findings are based on a relatively short study and various methodological issues need to be addressed, but they suggest that orangutans may be more ecologically flexible than previously thought

Using Remote Sensing for Agricultural Statistics

Remote sensing can be a valuable tool for agricultural statistics when area frames or multiple frames are used. At the design level, remote sensing typically helps in the definition of sampling units and the stratification, but can also be exploited to optimise the sample allocation and size of sampling units. At the estimator level, classified satellite images are generally used as auxiliary variables in a regression estimator or for estimators based on confusion matrixes. The most often used satellite images are LANDSAT-TM and SPOT-XS. In general, classified or photo-interpreted images should not be directly used to estimate crop areas because the proportion of pixels classified into the specific crop is often strongly biased. Vegetation indexes computed from satellite images can give in some cases a good indication of the potential crop yield