The Value of Public Information in Monopoly

The logic of the linkage principle of Milgrom and Weber (1982) extends to price discrimination. A non-linear pricing monopolist who sells to a single buyer always prefers to commit to publicly reveal information affiliated to the valuation of the buyer.

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market has naive views on forecasters' behavior, forecasts are biased toward the prior mean. Otherwise, equilibrium forecasts are unbiased but imprecise.Forecasting; Contest; Reputation; Cheap Talk

Professional Advice: The Theory of Reputational Cheap Talk.

Professional experts offer advice with the objective of appearing well informed. Their ability is evaluated on the basis of the advice given and of the realized state of the world. This situation is modeled as a reputational cheap-talk game in which the expert receives a signal of continuously varying intensity with ability-dependent precision about a continuum of states. Despite allowing an arbitrarily rich message space, at most two messages are sent in equilibrium. The expert can only credibly transmit the direction but not the intensity of the information possessed. Equilibrium advice is then systematically less informative than under truthtelling.reputation; cheap talk; advice; herding

Misselling through agents

This paper analyzes the implications of the inherent conflict between two tasks performed by direct marketing agents: prospecting for customers and advising on the product's "suitability" for the specific needs of customers. When structuring sales-force compensation, firms trade off the expected losses from "misselling" unsuitable products with the agency costs of providing marketing incentives. We characterize how the equilibrium amount of misselling (and thus the scope of policy intervention) depends on features of the agency problem including: the internal organization of a firm's sales process, the transparency of its commission structure, and the steepness of its agents' sales incentives. JEL Classification: D18 (Consumer Protection), D83 (Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge), M31 (Marketing), M52 (Compensation and Compensation Methods and Their Effects)

The Theory of Reputational Cheap Talk ∗

Professional experts offer advice with the objective of appearing well informed. Their ability is evaluated on the basis of the advice given and of the realized state of the world. This situation is modeled as a reputational cheap-talk game in which the expert receives a signal of continuously varying intensity with ability-dependent precision about a continuum of states. Despite allowing an arbitrarily rich message space, at most two messages are sent in equilibrium. The expert can only credibly transmit the direction but not the intensity of the information possessed. Equilibriu

Aggregation of Information and Beliefs: Asset Pricing Lessons from Prediction Markets

In a binary prediction market in which risk-neutral traders have heterogeneous prior beliefs and are allowed to invest a limited amount of money, the static rational expectations equilibrium price is demonstrated to underreact to information. This effect is consistent with a favorite-longshot bias, and is more pronounced when prior beliefs are more heterogeneous. Relaxing the assumptions of risk neutrality and bounded budget, underreaction to information also holds in a more general asset market with heterogeneous priors, provided traders have decreasing absolute risk aversion. In a dynamic asset market, the underreaction of the first period price is followed by momentum.prediction markets; private information; heterogeneous prior beliefs; limited budget; underreaction

Conglomeration with bankruptcy costs: Separate or joint financing?

The paper analyzes the determinants of the optimal scope of incorporation in the presence of bankruptcy costs. Bankruptcy costs alone generate a non-trivial tradeoff between the benefit of coinsurance and the cost of risk contamination associated to joint financing corporate projects through debt. This tradeoff is characterized for projects with binary returns, depending on the distributional characteristics of returns (mean, variability, skewness, heterogeneity, correlation, and number of projects), the bankruptcy recovery rate, and the tax rate advantage of debt relative to equity. Our testable predictions are broadly consistent with existing empirical evidence on conglomerate mergers, spin-offs, project finance, and securitization.Bankruptcy, conglomeration, mergers, spin-offs, project finance

Late Informed Betting and the Favorite-Longshot Bias.

According to the favorite-longshot bias observed in parimutuel betting, the final distribution of bets overestimates the winning chance of longshots. This paper proposes an explanation of this bias based on late betting by small privately informed bettors. These bettors have an incentive to protect their private information and bet at the last minute, without knowing the bets simultaneously placed by the others. Once the distribution of bets is revealed, if bets are more informative than noisy, all bettors can recognize that the longshot is less likely to win than indicated by the distrubution of bets.parimutuel betting; insider information; endogenous sequencing

Anticompetitive Contracts in the U.K. Pay-TV Market

contracts, raising rivals costs, pay TV

Contracts and Competition in the Pay-TV Market

Contracts, licensing, pay-TV