A Statistical Model for the Identification of Key Sectors in I-O Models

Following the seminal work by Bullard and Sebald [Effects of Parametric Uncertainty and Technological Change on In put-Out put Models, Rev. of Ec. And Stat., vol. 59,75-81], in this paper we present an innovative approach to sensitivity analysis in Input-Out put model. In particular, we propose a statistical model capable to compute a sensitivity index associated to each technical coefficient. We call the ordered set of these indices Importance Matrix. Finally, in order to show a simple example for this methodology, we consider the case of the Chicago economy. Keywords: Input-Out put Models, Sensitivity Analysis, Importance Matrix JEL Classification: C15, C67, D5

Urban Transport Policies and the Environment: Evidence from Italy

The paper reviews urban transport policies in Italian cities and their impact on the concentration of NO2 and PM10. Using parametric and non-parametric techniques, it finds no significant effect of the policy actions currently implemented. Further, it finds evidence of a weak positive impact of plans adoption. These results are interpreted as evidence of positive externalities among actions. Finally, by also discussing case studies, the paper points out the absence of economic instruments and argues that significant welfare gains would derive from their adoption.Urban Transport Policies, Traffic Externalities, Pollution Abatement

Individuals Time Preference and Social Discounting: A Survey and a Meta-Analysis

The choice of an appropriate social rate of discount is critical in the decision-making process on public investments. In this paper we review concisely the literature on social discounting and refer explicitly to a recently growing field of related research, that is, individual time preference. The consideration and analysis of behavioural factors of individuals in the definition and use of an appropriate social discount rate are critical for balanced decision-making, for example, in the field of environmental policy. The empirical literature shows quite some variation in the estimated values of individual discount rates. Therefore, we present results from a meta-analysis conducted over more than 40 experimental and field studies reporting individual discount rate estimates. We find that the experimental design of a study has a great impact on these estimates and conclude that our meta-regression function has a low transfer value.

A Statistical Model for the Identification of Key Sectors in I-O Models

Following the seminal work by Bullard and Sebald [Effects of Parametric Uncertainty and Technological Change on In put-Out put Models, Rev. of Ec. And Stat., vol. 59,75-81], in this paper we present an innovative approach to sensitivity analysis in Input-Out put model. In particular, we propose a statistical model capable to compute a sensitivity index associated to each technical coefficient. We call the ordered set of these indices Importance Matrix. Finally, in order to show a simple example for this methodology, we consider the case of the Chicago economy. Keywords: Input-Out put Models, Sensitivity Analysis, Importance Matrix JEL Classification: C15, C67, D

Discounting environmental effects in project appraisal

The aim of this paper is to present an alternative methodology for discounting far distant future externalities genereted by an investment project: time-declining discount rates. First I present the experimental evidence on individuals' time-inconsistency. Second I consider the theoretical justification for using hyperbolic discounting in a simple uncertainty framework where marginal social utility is discounted hyperbolically if the investing Government believes that social wealth might increase or decrease over future period with a small probability that wealth will deteriorate below its current level

REGIONAL DISPARITIES IN ITALY OVER THE LONG RUN: THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND TRADE POLICY

The well known Italian dualism in terms of development disparities between the North and the South has been one of the most debated issues in economics over the last few decades. In the aftermath of the Unification of Italy, the gap between North and South in terms of human capital stock was more relevant than the dualism in terms of GDP per capita. In 1871 the percentage of population able to read and write was 57.7% in the North-West and only 15.9% in the South, while there is no evidence of income disparities. Interestingly, in 1951 income per capita in Southern regions was only about 50% of that of the North. Bearing this evidence in mind, and using a novel panel dataset, we in-vestigate the pattern of regional development focusing on the role of initial hu-man capital conditions as a major driver of growth over the period 1891–1951. We provide further empirical evidence on the impact of protectionist trade poli-cies in the late 19th century on long run development. We find that a numerical-ly large human capital stock in the North provided fertile soil for early industri-alization, while the protection of agriculture resulted in an incentive for the South to specialize further in the primary sector, which turned out to be harmful in the long run.REGIONAL DISPARITIES, HUMAN CAPITAL, TRADE POLICY

Structural Convergence of the National Economies of Europe

Analysis of convergence has centered on movement of indices such as per capita incomes or welfare for countries or regions within countries. In this paper, the analysis focuses on the structure of economies in terms of the distribution of production across sectors and explores the implications of convergence of structure for a subset of EU countries. To assist in the exploration, some new methodology is introduced, based on the notion of a field of influence of change. A set of sensitivity indices and an associated importance matrix are constructed for a set of intercountry input-output tables. The results find that sectors at the European level are become more similar than the national economies as a whole.

Individuals Time Preference and Social Discounting: A Survey and a Meta-Analysis

The choice of an appropriate social rate of discount is critical in the decision-making process on public investments. In this paper we review concisely the literature on social discounting and refer explicitly to a recently growing field of related research, that is, individual time preference. The consideration and analysis of behavioural factors of individuals in the definition and use of an appropriate social discount rate are critical for balanced decision-making, for example, in the field of environmental policy. The empirical literature shows quite some variation in the estimated values of individual discount rates. Therefore, we present results from a meta-analysis conducted over more than 40 experimental and field studies reporting individual discount rate estimates. We find that the experimental design of a study has a great impact on these estimates and conclude that our meta-regression function has a low transfer value

Spatial health inequality and regional disparities: historical evidence from Italy

Geography and the quality of the environment may have long lasting effects on the living standards of individuals and this, in its turn, may affect even substantially the distribution of income and regional disparities. In this paper I consider malaria as a measure of “bad geography” and propose some evidence showing that it was a major determinant of the health of individuals (as measured by the height of conscripts) and its disparities between individuals and regions in Italy. In particular, to estimate the relationship between malaria exposure and height, I rely on the “fetal origins hypothesis”, that is I hypothesize that exposure to malaria in utero or during childhood has persistent effects on health. Periods under scrutiny in this paper are the last two decades of the XIX century, a period without major public health interventions, and the years around the eradication era in the 1950s. My results support the hypothesis that geographically targeted policies may reduce health inequality between regions and within regions

Path Dependence, Institutions and the Density of Economic Activities: Evidence from Italian Cities

In recent years a growing body of literature has begun to consider the possible presence of path dependence in the development processes of countries. This phenomenon has always been recognized in regional and urban studies because the path of development almost naturally follows a history-dependent spatial diffusion influenced by both physical geography and the quality of institutions. In this paper, I consider the case of firm concentration in Italy and its impact on local development. A large and growing literature has argued in favour of persisting effects of past institutions on current outcomes. Hence, in order to identify the impact of firm density on income, I use instruments from the history of a set of Italian cities: namely the presence of a university and status as a free-city state in the Early Middle Ages. I first show that those two variables had an important effect on the process of urban development between 1300 and 1861, together with favourable geographic conditions. Then, when I use these instruments to predict firm density, I find that the elasticity of income to firm density is close to 0.1. This result is interpreted as providing evidence of the historical roots of agglomeration economies in Italy.Path dependence, Urban development, Geography, Institutions, Firm density