Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think

Standard models of exchange rates, based on macroeconomic variables such as prices, interest rates, output, etc., are thought by many researchers to have failed empirically. We present evidence to the contrary. First, we emphasize the point that "beating a random walk" in forecasting is too strong a criterion for accepting an exchange rate model. Typically models should have low forecasting power of this type. We then propose a number of alternative ways to evaluate models. We examine in-sample fit, but emphasize the importance of the monetary policy rule, and its effects on expectations, in determining exchange rates. Next we present evidence that exchange rates incorporate news about future macroeconomic fundamentals, as the models imply. We demonstrate that the models might well be able to account for observed exchange-rate volatility. We discuss studies that examine the response of exchange rates to announcements of economic data. Then we present estimates of exchange-rate models in which expected present values of fundamentals are calculated from survey forecasts. Finally, we show that out-of-sample forecasting power of models can be increased by focusing on panel estimation and long-horizon forecasts.

Estudio de la viabilidad comercial para la creación de un spa para hombres de 25 a 59 años en la ciudad de Chiclayo, 2015

La presente tesis tuvo como objetivo principal investigar la viabilidad comercial de implementar un Spa exclusivamente para hombres en la ciudad de Chiclayo, debido a que diversos estudios indicaron que en la actualidad los índices de estrés, ya sea laboral o psicológico, son elevados y se requiere desarrollar modelos de negocio que permitan atenuarlos. Por ello, la presente investigación, basándose en una segmentación que abarca hombres de 25 a 59 años, de estilos de vida sofisticados y progresistas, realizó mediante encuestas, entrevistas y grupos focales, un estudio para verificar la viabilidad de ejecución del spa masculino, del cual se obtuvo resultados positivos con respecto al crecimiento de éste sector, demostrando la aceptación del proyecto como parte del cuidado masculino, de modo que éste pueda brindar un servicio innovador, exclusivo y necesario, que ayude a mejorar la calidad de vida y satisfacción de los clientes, a través de las preferencias, características y sugerencias recolectadas en el estudio y análisis del mercado Chiclayano, por lo que se concluyó del estudio que sí es viable la creación de un spa para hombres en dicha ciudad.Tesi

Preheating in Derivatively-Coupled Inflation Models

We study preheating in theories where the inflaton couples derivatively to scalar and gauge fields. Such couplings may dominate in natural models of inflation, in which the flatness of the inflaton potential is related to an approximate shift symmetry of the inflaton. We compare our results with previously studied models with non-derivative couplings. For sufficiently heavy scalar matter, parametric resonance is ineffective in reheating the universe, because the couplings of the inflaton to matter are very weak. If scalar matter fields are light, derivative couplings lead to a mild long-wavelength instability that drives matter fields to non-zero expectation values. In this case however, long-wavelength fluctuations of the light scalar are produced during inflation, leading to a host of cosmological problems. In contrast, axion-like couplings of the inflaton to a gauge field do not lead to production of long-wavelength fluctuations during inflation. However, again because of the weakness of the couplings to the inflaton, parametric resonance is not effective in producing gauge field quanta.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figure

Social technologies for online learning: theoretical and contextual issues

Three exemplars are presented of social technologies deployed in educational contexts: wikis; a photo-sharing environment; and a social bookmarking tool. Students were found to engage with the technologies selectively, sometimes rejecting them, in the light of their prior conceptions of education. Some students (a minority in all the studies) were unsympathetic to the educational philosophy underpinning the technology’s adoption. The paper demonstrates, through an examination of in-context use, the importance of socio-cultural factors in relation to education, and the non-deterministic nature of educational technology. The academic study of technology has increasingly called into question the deterministic views which are so pervasive in popular discourse and among policy makers. Instead, socio-cultural factors play a crucial role in shaping and defining technology and educational technology is no exception, as the examples in the paper show. The paper concludes by drawing out some implications of the examples for the use of social technologies in education

Ties Across the Sea

A partnership in legal education links Japan and the Law, esqxessing itself in the regular interchange of people and ideas, as shown by the articles chat lollo\+-

Making Sense of Japan\u27s Sokaiya Rackteers

How do legal, regulatory, and organizational systems affect the emergence and development of corporate extortion? The question arises whether the extortionist is a potential plaintiff seeking settlement, a labor uniion threatening to strike, or the lucky finder of the mouse-in-the-soda-bottle of urban legend. In each case, including those in which extortion may be lawful and even desirable, the extortionist\u27s threat and the corporation\u27s response depend on the institutional context in which the extortion take place. In the Japanese system, corporate extortion by sokaiya (literally, general meeting operators ) take several forms, a sokaiya typically is defined as a nominal shareholder who either attempts to extort money from a company to suppress opposition at the meeting. Surprisingly, Japanese executives pay sokaiya despite the fact that payment can result in civil and criminal liability not only for sokaiya, but for the executive as well. The following article is excerpted from Information, Institutions, and Extortion in Japan and the United States: Making Sense of Sokaiya Racketeers, which will appear in its complete form in 93 Northwestern University Law Review this summer. Publication is by permission

A measure of honor

People in Japan sue despite low damages—and win—over some things that sound rather silly. The rules increase people’s chances of winning, but even if they had a 100 percent chance of success, shouldn’t they be able to get over it

Haley and the Blowfish

In this Article, I want to explore these two insights of Haley’s in an off-the-beaten-path subject of regulation: blowfish. (That I am able to get so far off the beaten path is a luxury I owe to Haley, who, with a few others, created the path in the first place.) I ask two questions. First, why have blowfish poisoning rates fallen over time? Second, why do so few blowfish poisoning cases go to court