Capitalization of Capital Gains Taxes: Evidence from Stock Price Reactions to the 1997 Rate Reduction

We empirically document that stock prices moved inversely with dividend yields during the May, 1997 week, when the White House and Congress agreed on a budget accord that included a reduction in the capital gains tax rate. The share prices of firms not currently paying dividends increased approximately 6 percentage points more over a five-day window than the share prices of other firms. Among firms paying dividends, the change in share prices was decreasing in dividend yields. The results are consistent with at least two related explanations. First, to the extent a stock's returns are expected to be taxed as capital gains, a reduction in the expected capital gains tax rate enhances the attractiveness of the investment to investors. Second, to the extent a firm's stock is held by shareholders subject to the capital gains tax, a reduction in the expected capital gains tax rate increases its market value. The findings present evidence consistent with neither a sell-off of appreciated securities following the rate reduction nor a reduction in the compensation for capital gains taxes that selling shareholders demand from buyers. The upward price pressure around the accord dominated any downward price pressure imposed by these factors.

The informational advantage of specialized monitors: the case of bank examiners

Large commercial banking firms are monitored by specialized private sector monitors and by specialized government examiners. Previous research suggests that bank exams produce little useful information that is not already reflected in market prices. In this article, we apply a new research methodology to a unique data set, and find that government exams of large national banks produce significant new information which financial markets do not fully internalize for several additional months. Our results indicate that specialized government monitors can identify value-relevant information about private firms, even if those firms are already actively followed by investors and their private-sector agents.Bank supervision ; Bank examination

The Unusual Galactic Center Radio Source N3

Here we report on new, multi-wavelength radio observations of the unusual point source "N3" that appears to be located in the vicinity of the Galactic Center. VLA observations between 2 and 50 GHz reveal that N3 is a compact and bright source (56 mJy at 10 GHz) with a non-thermal spectrum superimposed upon the non-thermal radio filaments (NTFs) of the Radio Arc. Our highest frequency observations place a strict upper limit of 65 x 28 mas on the size of N3. We compare our observations to those of Yusef-Zadeh & Morris (1987) and Lang et al. (1997) and conclude that N3 is variable over long time scales. Additionally, we present the detection of a compact molecular cloud located adjacent to N3 in projection. CH3CN, CH3OH, CS, HC3N, HNCO, SiO, SO, and NH3 are detected in the cloud and most transitions have FWHM line widths of ~20 km/s. The rotational temperature determined from the metastable NH3 transitions ranges from 79 K to 183 K depending on the transitions used. We present evidence that this molecular cloud is interacting with N3. After exploring the relationship between the NTFs, molecular cloud, and N3, we conclude that N3 likely lies within the Galactic Center. We are able to rule out the HII region, young supernova, active star, AGN, and micro-quasar hypotheses for N3. While a micro-blazar may provide a viable explanation for N3, additional observations are needed to determine the physical counterpart of this mysterious source.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal. 19 pages, 11 figure

The Error is the Feature: how to Forecast Lightning using a Model Prediction Error

Despite the progress within the last decades, weather forecasting is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Current satellite-based approaches to predict thunderstorms are usually based on the analysis of the observed brightness temperatures in different spectral channels and emit a warning if a critical threshold is reached. Recent progress in data science however demonstrates that machine learning can be successfully applied to many research fields in science, especially in areas dealing with large datasets. We therefore present a new approach to the problem of predicting thunderstorms based on machine learning. The core idea of our work is to use the error of two-dimensional optical flow algorithms applied to images of meteorological satellites as a feature for machine learning models. We interpret that optical flow error as an indication of convection potentially leading to thunderstorms and lightning. To factor in spatial proximity we use various manual convolution steps. We also consider effects such as the time of day or the geographic location. We train different tree classifier models as well as a neural network to predict lightning within the next few hours (called nowcasting in meteorology) based on these features. In our evaluation section we compare the predictive power of the different models and the impact of different features on the classification result. Our results show a high accuracy of 96% for predictions over the next 15 minutes which slightly decreases with increasing forecast period but still remains above 83% for forecasts of up to five hours. The high false positive rate of nearly 6% however needs further investigation to allow for an operational use of our approach.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figure

A Radio Polarimetric Study of the Galactic Center Threads

Multi-frequency, polarimetric VLA observations of the non-thermal filaments (NTF's), G0.08+0.15, and G359.96+0.09, also known as the Northern and Southern Threads are presented at 20, 6, 3.6 and 2 cm, with high enough spatial resolution to be resolved for the first time at 6 and 3.6 cm. The 20 cm image reveals a wealth of new detail in the radio sources lying within the inner 60 pc of the Galaxy. The Southern Thread has a prominent split along its length, similar to splitting at the ends of previously studied NTF's. With resolutions as fine as 2'', the 3.6 and 6 cm images reveal a high degree of continuity and little substructure internal to the filament. The spectral index of the Northern Thread has been determined over a broad range of frequencies. Its flux density falls with frequency, alpha=-0.5 between 90 and 6 cm, and becomes much steeper (alpha=-2.0) between 6 and 2 cm. The spectral index does not vary significantly along the length of the Northern Thread, which implies either that the diffusion timescale for the emitting electrons is less than their synchrotron lifetime, or that the emitting electrons are reaccelerated continuously at multiple positions along the filament. Because of the lack of spectral index variation, we have not located the source of relativistic electrons. Polarization observations at 6 and 3.6 cm confirm the non-thermal nature of the emission from the Northern Thread. The fractional polarization in the Northern Thread reaches 70% in some regions, although the polarized emission is patchy. Large rotation measures (RM > 2000 rad/m2) have been observed with irregular variations across the filament.The intrinsic magnetic field in the Northern Thread is predominantly aligned along its long axis.Comment: 19 pages, incl. 24 figs; to appear in the Astrophysical Journa

First-Principles Based Matrix-Green's Function Approach to Molecular Electronic Devices: General Formalism

Transport in molecular electronic devices is different from that in semiconductor mesoscopic devices in two important aspects: (1) the effect of the electronic structure and (2) the effect of the interface to the external contact. A rigorous treatment of molecular electronic devices will require the inclusion of these effects in the context of an open system exchanging particle and energy with the external environment. This calls for combining the theory of quantum transport with the theory of electronic structure starting from the first-principles. We present a rigorous yet tractable matrix Green's function approach for studying transport in molecular electronic devices, based on the Non-Equilibrium Green's Function Formalism of quantum transport and the density-functional theory of electronic structure using local orbital basis sets. By separating the device rigorously into the molecular region and the contact region, we can take full advantage of the natural spatial locality associated with the metallic screening in the electrodes and focus on the physical processes in the finite molecular region. This not only opens up the possibility of using the existing well-established technique of molecular electronic structure theory in transport calculations with little change, but also allows us to use the language of qualitative molecular orbital theory to interpret and rationalize the results of the computation. For the device at equilibrium, our method provides an alternative approach for solving the molecular chemisorption problem. For the device out of equilibrium, we show that the calculation of elastic current transport through molecules, both conceptually and computationally, is no more difficult than solving the chemisorption problem.Comment: To appear in Chemical Physic

Toxicity of cancer therapy: what the cardiologist needs to know about angiogenesis inhibitors

Clinical outcomes for patients with a wide range of malignancies have improved substantially over the last two decades. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are potent signalling cascade inhibitors and have been responsible for significant advances in cancer therapy. By inhibiting vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR)-mediated tumour blood vessel growth, VEGFR-TKIs have become a mainstay of treatment for a number of solid malignancies. However, the incidence of VEGFR-TKI-associated cardiovascular toxicity is substantial and previously under-recognised. Almost all patients have an acute rise in blood pressure, and the majority develop hypertension. They are associated with the development of left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD), heart failure and myocardial ischaemia and can have effects on myocardial repolarisation. Attention should be given to rigorous baseline assessment of patients prior to commencing VEGFR-TKIs, with careful consideration of baseline cardiovascular risk factors. Baseline blood pressure measurement, ECG and cardiac imaging should be performed routinely. Hypertension management currently follows national guidelines, but there may be a future role forendothelin-1 antagonism in the prevention or treatment of VEGFR-TKI-associated hypertension. VEGFR-TKI-associated LVSD appears to be independent of dose and is reversible. Patients who develop LVSD and heart failure should be managed with conventional heart failure therapies, but the role of prophylactic therapy is yet to be defined. Serial monitoring of left ventricular function and QT interval require better standardisation and coordinated care. Management of these complex patients requires collaborative, cardio-oncology care to allow the true therapeutic potential from cancer treatment while minimising competing cardiovascular effects