Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets

We study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of knowledgeable informants, i.e., in thin markets. Our results show that none of the three approaches differ in forecasting accuracy in a low knowledge-heterogeneity environment. However, where there is high knowledge-heterogeneity, the VSM approach outperforms the CJF approach, which in turn outperforms the KI approach. Hence, our results provide useful insight into when each of the three approaches might be most effectively applied

Corrections to the Central Limit Theorem for Heavy-Tailed Probability Densities

Classical Edgeworth expansions provide asymptotic correction terms to the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) up to an order that depends on the number of moments available. In this paper, we provide subsequent correction terms beyond those given by a standard Edgeworth expansion in the general case of regularly varying distributions with diverging moments (beyond the second). The subsequent terms can be expressed in a simple closed form in terms of certain special functions (Dawson's integral and parabolic cylinder functions), and there are qualitative differences depending on whether the number of moments available is even, odd or not an integer, and whether the distributions are symmetric or not. If the increments have an even number of moments, then additional logarithmic corrections must also be incorporated in the expansion parameter. An interesting feature of our correction terms for the CLT is that they become dominant outside the central region and blend naturally with known large-deviation asymptotics when these are applied formally to the spatial scales of the CLT

On the negative spectrum of two-dimensional Schr\"odinger operators with radial potentials

For a two-dimensional Schr\"odinger operator $H_{\alpha V}=-\Delta-\alpha V$ with the radial potential $V(x)=F(|x|), F(r)\ge 0$, we study the behavior of the number $N_-(H_{\alpha V})$ of its negative eigenvalues, as the coupling parameter $\alpha$ tends to infinity. We obtain the necessary and sufficient conditions for the semi-classical growth $N_-(H_{\alpha V})=O(\alpha)$ and for the validity of the Weyl asymptotic law.Comment: 13 page

Dynamic charge density correlation function in weakly charged polyampholyte globules

We study solutions of statistically neutral polyampholyte chains containing a large fraction of neutral monomers. It is known that, even if the quality of the solvent with respect to the neutral monomers is good, a long chain will collapse into a globule. For weakly charged chains, the interior of this globule is semi-dilute. This paper considers mainly theta-solvents, and we calculate the dynamic charge density correlation function g(k,t) in the interior of the globules, using the quadratic approximation to the Martin-Siggia-Rose generating functional. It is convenient to express the results in terms of dimensionless space and time variables. Let R be the blob size, and let T be the characteristic time scale at the blob level. Define the dimensionless wave vector q = R k, and the dimensionless time s = t/T. We find that for q<1, corresponding to length scales larger than the blob size, the charge density fluctuations relax according to g(q,s) = q^2(1-s^(1/2)) at short times s < 1, and according to g(q,s) = q^2 s^(-1/2) at intermediate times 1 < s 0.1, where entanglements are unimportant.Comment: 12 pages RevTex, 1 figure ps, PACS 61.25.Hq, reason replacement: Expression for dynamic corr. function g(k,t) in old version was incorrect (though expression for Fourier transform g(k,w) was correct, so the major part of the calculation remains.) Also major textual chang

ac-Field-Controlled Anderson Localization in Disordered Semiconductor Superlattices

An ac field, tuned exactly to resonance with the Stark ladder in an ideal tight binding lattice under strong dc bias, counteracts Wannier-Stark localization and leads to the emergence of extended Floquet states. If there is random disorder, these states localize. The localization lengths depend non-monotonically on the ac field amplitude and become essentially zero at certain parameters. This effect is of possible relevance for characterizing the quality of superlattice samples, and for performing experiments on Anderson localization in systems with well-defined disorder.Comment: 10 pages, Latex; figures available on request from [email protected]

Screening of Hydrodynamic Interactions in Semidilute Polymer Solutions: A Computer Simulation Study

We study single-chain motion in semidilute solutions of polymers of length N = 1000 with excluded-volume and hydrodynamic interactions by a novel algorithm. The crossover length of the transition from Zimm (short lengths and times) to Rouse dynamics (larger scales) is proportional to the static screening length. The crossover time is the corresponding Zimm time. Our data indicate Zimm behavior at large lengths but short times. There is no hydrodynamic screening until the chains feel constraints, after which they resist the flow: "Incomplete screening" occurs in the time domain.Comment: 3 figure

Evidence for a Low-Spin to Intermediate-Spin State Transition in LaCoO3

We present measurements of the magnetic susceptibility and of the thermal expansion of a LaCoO$_3$ single crystal. Both quantities show a strongly anomalous temperature dependence. Our data are consistently described in terms of a spin-state transition of the Co$^{3+}$ ions with increasing temperature from a low-spin ground state to an intermediate-spin state without (100K - 500K) and with (>500K) orbital degeneracy. We attribute the lack of orbital degeneracy up to 500K to (probably local) Jahn-Teller distortions of the CoO$_6$ octahedra. A strong reduction or disappearance of the Jahn-Teller distortions seems to arise from the insulator-to-metal transition around 500 K.Comment: an error in the scaling factor of Eq.(4) and consequently 2 values of table I have been corrected. The conclusions of the paper remain unchanged. See also: C. Zobel et al. Phys. Rev. B 71, 019902 (2005) and J. Baier et al. Phys. Rev. B 71, 014443 (2005

Horizontal Branch Stars: The Interplay between Observations and Theory, and Insights into the Formation of the Galaxy

We review HB stars in a broad astrophysical context, including both variable and non-variable stars. A reassessment of the Oosterhoff dichotomy is presented, which provides unprecedented detail regarding its origin and systematics. We show that the Oosterhoff dichotomy and the distribution of globular clusters (GCs) in the HB morphology-metallicity plane both exclude, with high statistical significance, the possibility that the Galactic halo may have formed from the accretion of dwarf galaxies resembling present-day Milky Way satellites such as Fornax, Sagittarius, and the LMC. A rediscussion of the second-parameter problem is presented. A technique is proposed to estimate the HB types of extragalactic GCs on the basis of integrated far-UV photometry. The relationship between the absolute V magnitude of the HB at the RR Lyrae level and metallicity, as obtained on the basis of trigonometric parallax measurements for the star RR Lyrae, is also revisited, giving a distance modulus to the LMC of (m-M)_0 = 18.44+/-0.11. RR Lyrae period change rates are studied. Finally, the conductive opacities used in evolutionary calculations of low-mass stars are investigated. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 56 pages, 22 figures. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

Ultrasonic evidence of an uncorrelated cluster formation temperature in manganites with first-order magnetic transition at T_C

Ultrasonic attenuation and phase velocity measurements have been carried out in the ferromagnetic perovskites La_{2/3}Ca_{1/3}MnO_3 and La_{2/3}Sr_{1/3}MnO_3. Data show that the transition at the Curie temperature, T_C, changes from first- to second-order as Sr replaces Ca in the perovskite. The compound with first-order transition shows also another transition at a temperature T* > T_C. We interpret the temperature window T_C < T < T* as a region of coexistence of a phase separated regime of metallic and insulating regions, in the line of recent theoretical proposals.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Clinical Outcome Scoring of Intra-articular Calcaneal Fractures

Outcome reporting of intra-articular calcaneal fractures is inconsistent. This study aimed to identify the most cited outcome scores in the literature and to analyze their reliability and validity. A systematic literature search identified 34 different outcome scores. The most cited outcome score was the American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) hindfoot score, followed by the Maryland Foot Score (MFS) and the Creighton-Nebraska score (CN). Reliability (internal consistency) and validity (content, construct, and criterion) were determined for the 3 outcome scoring systems. Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha, reliability) was similar for the Maryland Foot Score (α = 0.82) and American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society hindfoot score (α = 0.78), but lower for the Creighton-Nebraska (α = 0.61). Floor and ceiling effects were good for all 3 scores. The individual items within these outcome scores showing best content validity were pain, return to work, subtalar range of motion, walking distance, ankle range of motion, and gait abnormalities or limping. Construct validity was good for all individual items except sagittal motion, stability at physical exam, and shoe size. The 3 outcome scores showed high correlation with patient satisfaction as measured with a visual analog scale (VAS, criterion validity) and indication for an arthrodesis. In conclusion, pending consensus, we would recommend choosing between the widely accepted, reliable and valid AOFAS hindfoot and the Maryland Foot Score as the scoring systems of choice. Level of Clinical Evidence: 2