Robust multi-year climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems

Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well-observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state-of-the-art decadal prediction systems that have been initialized with the observed state before volcanic aerosols are introduced. The impact of the volcanic aerosols is found by subtracting the results of a reference experiment where the volcanic aerosols are omitted. We look for the robust impact across models and volcanoes by combining all the experiments, which helps reveal a signal even if it is weak in the models. The models used in this study simulate realistic levels of warming in the stratosphere, but zonal winds are weaker than the observations. As a consequence, models can produce a pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in the first winter following the eruption, but the response and impact on surface temperatures is weaker than in observations. Reproducing the pattern, but not the amplitude, may be related to a known model error. There are also impacts in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work contributes towards improving the interpretation of decadal predictions in the case of a future large tropical volcanic eruption

Estimating the Decadal Predictability of a Coupled AOGCM.

On seasonal time scales, ENSO prediction has become feasible in an operational framework in recent years. On decadal to multidecadal time scales, the variability of the oceanic circulation is assumed to provide a potential for climate prediction. To investigate the decadal predictability of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) European Centre-Hamburg model version 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), a 500-yr-long control integration and “perfect model” predictability experiments are analyzed. The results show that the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Atlantic, Nordic Seas, and Southern Ocean exhibit predictability on multidecadal time scales. Over the ocean, the predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) is very similar to that of SST. Over land, there is little evidence of decadal predictability of SAT except for some small maritime-influenced regions of Europe. The AOGCM produces predictable signals in lower-tropospheric temperature and precipitation over the North Atlantic, but not in sea level pressure

The Migration of Elites in a Borderless World: Citizenship as an Incentive for Professionals and Managers?

Der Artikel geht der Frage nach, inwiefern die geöffneten Türen für die Immigration Hochqualifizierter in den OECD-Ländern tatsächlich zu einer verstärkten Migrationsbewegung führen. Die Analyse von Daten zu Eliten- und Hochqualifiziertenmigration in Ostasien, Europa und den USA führt zu dem Ergebnis, dass diese dem Muster einer „brain circulation“ folgt und die Staatsbürgerrechte dabei keine entscheidende Rolle spielen

Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C

The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.5 °C. Such excursions would not necessarily exceed the Paris Agreement, but would provide a warning that the threshold is being approached. Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5‐year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events

How Four Key Christological New Testament Passages Can Keep Us From Heresy

Journal Article, Faculty of Theology, Unit for Reformational Theology and Dev of the SA Society-- Potchefstroom CampusThis article explores the Christocentric biblical outlook found in John 1:1,14, 18; Philippians 2:5-11; Hebrews 2:5-18, and Colossians 1:15-20. The aim of this article is to prepare Christian Evangelicals in Mpumalanga Province to be able to silence the heretics who raise questions related to Christ’s deity; particularly in the areas of apologetics and evangelism. Some analysis and critique of some questionable views found in Black Theology, the Prosperity Gospel, African Initiated Churches like the AmaNazaretha Shembe Baptist Church, and the Zion Christian Church were predominantly echoed during the first four century AD ecumenical councils. This was indifferent forms like Ebionism, Docetism, Arianism, Apollinarianism and Modalism. Preachers of these contemporary Christological errors tout a religion of selfdeification coupled in some instances with syncretistic elements of mysticism and/or ancestral worship. Jesus Christ is often presented as ‘less than’ who He actually is. It is important to know that Jesus Christ is not a created being; He is eternal God in that He is the creator (Col 1:15-17), He is the Head of the Church (Col 1:18) and Christ is the beloved Son of God. Christ being fully man and fully God, Him, the Father, and the Holy Spirit are God and equal. Indeed, Jesus Christ is the sole reason for the existence of the Church

Recent progress in understanding and predicting Atlantic decadal climate variability

Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems