Extension Property

Here, we study games of incomplete information and argue that it is important to correctly specify the “context ” within which hierarchies of beliefs lie. We consider a situation where the players understand more than the analyst: It is transparent to the players—but not to the analyst—that certain hierarchies of beliefs are precluded. In particular, the players ’ type structure can be viewed as a strict subset of the analyst’s type structure. How does this affect a Bayesian equilibrium analysis? One natural conjecture is that this doesn’t change the analysis—i.e., every equilibrium of the players’ type structure can be associated with an equilibrium of the analyst’s type structure. We show that this conjecture is wrong. Bayesian equilibrium may fail an Extension Property. This can occur even in the case where the game is finite and the analyst uses the so-called universal structure (to analyze the game)—and, even, if the associated Bayesian game has an equilibrium. We go on to explore specific situations in which th

The effect of dividends on consumption

Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock returns in the form of dividends. Using two micro data sets, we show that investors are indeed far more likely to consume from dividends than capital gains. In the Consumer Expenditure Survey, household consumption increases with dividend income, controlling for total wealth, total portfolio returns, and other sources of income. In a sample of household investment accounts data from a brokerage, net withdrawals from the accounts increase one-for-one with ordinary dividends of moderate size, controlling for total portfolio returns, and also increase with mutual fund and special dividends. We comment on several potential explanations for the results

Remarks on the method of comparison equations (generalized WKB method) and the generalized Ermakov-Pinney equation

The connection between the method of comparison equations (generalized WKB method) and the Ermakov-Pinney equation is established. A perturbative scheme of solution of the generalized Ermakov-Pinney equation is developed and is applied to the construction of perturbative series for second-order differential equations with and without turning points.Comment: The collective of the authors is enlarged and the calculations in Sec. 3 are correcte

A Dynamic Model of Interactions of Ca^(2+), Calmodulin, and Catalytic Subunits of Ca^(2+)/Calmodulin-Dependent Protein Kinase II

During the acquisition of memories, influx of Ca^(2+) into the postsynaptic spine through the pores of activated N-methyl-D-aspartate-type glutamate receptors triggers processes that change the strength of excitatory synapses. The pattern of Ca^(2+) influx during the first few seconds of activity is interpreted within the Ca^(2+)-dependent signaling network such that synaptic strength is eventually either potentiated or depressed. Many of the critical signaling enzymes that control synaptic plasticity, including Ca^(2+)/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII), are regulated by calmodulin, a small protein that can bind up to 4 Ca^(2+) ions. As a first step toward clarifying how the Ca^(2+)-signaling network decides between potentiation or depression, we have created a kinetic model of the interactions of Ca^(2+), calmodulin, and CaMKII that represents our best understanding of the dynamics of these interactions under conditions that resemble those in a postsynaptic spine. We constrained parameters of the model from data in the literature, or from our own measurements, and then predicted time courses of activation and autophosphorylation of CaMKII under a variety of conditions. Simulations showed that species of calmodulin with fewer than four bound Ca^(2+) play a significant role in activation of CaMKII in the physiological regime, supporting the notion that processing ofCa^(2+) signals in a spine involves competition among target enzymes for binding to unsaturated species of CaM in an environment in which the concentration of Ca^(2+) is fluctuating rapidly. Indeed, we showed that dependence of activation on the frequency of Ca^(2+) transients arises from the kinetics of interaction of fluctuating Ca^(2+) with calmodulin/CaMKII complexes. We used parameter sensitivity analysis to identify which parameters will be most beneficial to measure more carefully to improve the accuracy of predictions. This model provides a quantitative base from which to build more complex dynamic models of postsynaptic signal transduction during learning

Using Administrative Data to Count Local Populations

There is growing evidence that official population statistics based on the decennial census are inaccurate at the local authority level—the fundamental administrative unit of the UK. This paper investigates the use of locally available administrative data sets for counting populations. The method uses truth tables for combining different data sources with different population coverage according to a defined and therefore replicable set of rules. The result is timelier and geographically more flexible data which is more cost-effective to produce than a survey-based census. Associated techniques for linking diverse data sources at individual and household level are briefly discussed. The methodology is then applied to administrative data from a London borough with about 170,000 people. The results are evaluated and compared with other population sources. The paper concludes by discussing potential improvements including scaling up the work to cover multiple local authorities. The practicalities of using alternative central government data sets are briefly considered. A sequel paper in this journal provides examples of key applications of this approach at local level

The systematic guideline review: method, rationale, and test on chronic heart failure

Background: Evidence-based guidelines have the potential to improve healthcare. However, their de-novo-development requires substantial resources-especially for complex conditions, and adaptation may be biased by contextually influenced recommendations in source guidelines. In this paper we describe a new approach to guideline development-the systematic guideline review method (SGR), and its application in the development of an evidence-based guideline for family physicians on chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: A systematic search for guidelines was carried out. Evidence-based guidelines on CHF management in adults in ambulatory care published in English or German between the years 2000 and 2004 were included. Guidelines on acute or right heart failure were excluded. Eligibility was assessed by two reviewers, methodological quality of selected guidelines was appraised using the AGREE instrument, and a framework of relevant clinical questions for diagnostics and treatment was derived. Data were extracted into evidence tables, systematically compared by means of a consistency analysis and synthesized in a preliminary draft. Most relevant primary sources were re-assessed to verify the cited evidence. Evidence and recommendations were summarized in a draft guideline. Results: Of 16 included guidelines five were of good quality. A total of 35 recommendations were systematically compared: 25/35 were consistent, 9/35 inconsistent, and 1/35 un-rateable (derived from a single guideline). Of the 25 consistencies, 14 were based on consensus, seven on evidence and four differed in grading. Major inconsistencies were found in 3/9 of the inconsistent recommendations. We re-evaluated the evidence for 17 recommendations (evidence-based, differing evidence levels and minor inconsistencies) - the majority was congruent. Incongruity was found where the stated evidence could not be verified in the cited primary sources, or where the evaluation in the source guidelines focused on treatment benefits and underestimated the risks. The draft guideline was completed in 8.5 man-months. The main limitation to this study was the lack of a second reviewer. Conclusion: The systematic guideline review including framework development, consistency analysis and validation is an effective, valid, and resource saving-approach to the development of evidence-based guidelines

The pseudogap: friend or foe of high Tc?

Although nineteen years have passed since the discovery of high temperature superconductivity, there is still no consensus on its physical origin. This is in large part because of a lack of understanding of the state of matter out of which the superconductivity arises. In optimally and underdoped materials, this state exhibits a pseudogap at temperatures large compared to the superconducting transition temperature. Although discovered only three years after the pioneering work of Bednorz and Muller, the physical origin of this pseudogap behavior and whether it constitutes a distinct phase of matter is still shrouded in mystery. In the summer of 2004, a band of physicists gathered for five weeks at the Aspen Center for Physics to discuss the pseudogap. In this perspective, we would like to summarize some of the results presented there and discuss its importance in the context of strongly correlated electron systems.Comment: expanded version, 20 pages, 11 figures, to be published, Advances in Physic

Spinal involvement in mucopolysaccharidosis IVA (Morquio-Brailsford or Morquio A syndrome): presentation, diagnosis and management.

Mucopolysaccharidosis IVA (MPS IVA), also known as Morquio-Brailsford or Morquio A syndrome, is a lysosomal storage disorder caused by a deficiency of the enzyme N-acetyl-galactosamine-6-sulphate sulphatase (GALNS). MPS IVA is multisystemic but manifests primarily as a progressive skeletal dysplasia. Spinal involvement is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in MPS IVA. Early diagnosis and timely treatment of problems involving the spine are critical in preventing or arresting neurological deterioration and loss of function. This review details the spinal manifestations of MPS IVA and describes the tools used to diagnose and monitor spinal involvement. The relative utility of radiography, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the evaluation of cervical spine instability, stenosis, and cord compression is discussed. Surgical interventions, anaesthetic considerations, and the use of neurophysiological monitoring during procedures performed under general anaesthesia are reviewed. Recommendations for regular radiological imaging and neurologic assessments are presented, and the need for a more standardized approach for evaluating and managing spinal involvement in MPS IVA is addressed

The effect of nutrient limitation on bacterial wax ester production

Nutrient limitation is widely employed to alter the behaviour of micro-organisms. Here, the impact of nitrogen and, for the first time, phosphate limitation is investigated on the production of bacterial storage lipids; specifically wax esters, a class of storage lipids of industrial interest, by the bacterium Acinetobacter baylyi ADP1 grown on the low-cost substrate acetate. Studies determined the absolute and temporal effects of nutrient limitation and identified a maximum wax titre of 132 mg/L and content of 17 % of biomass. A 4-fold increase in wax production was achievable by manipulating carbon: phosphate ratio. Multivariable analysis identified a novel interaction effect between carbon: nitrogen and carbon: phosphate ratios on wax production. Extreme phosphate starvation shifted the dominant lipid class from wax esters to triacylglycerols, the first report of the potential of phosphate limitation to alter the type of lipid generated. These findings offer valuable insights for future microbial bioproduction studies

Are isomeric alkenes used in species recognition among neo-tropical stingless bees (Melipona spp)

The majority of our understanding of the role of cuticular hydrocarbons (CHC) in recognition is based largely on temperate ant species and honey bees. The stingless bees remain relatively poorly studied, despite being the largest group of eusocial bees, comprising more than 400 species in some 60 genera. The Meliponini and Apini diverged between 80-130 Myr B.P. so the evolutionary trajectories that shaped the chemical communication systems in ants, honeybees and stingless bees may be very different. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to study if a unique species CHC signal existed in Neotropical stingless bees, as shown for many temperate species, and if so what compounds are involved. This was achieved by collecting CHC data from 24 colonies belonging to six species of Melipona from North-eastern Brazil and comparing this new data with all previously published CHC studies on Melipona. We found that each of the eleven Melipona species studied so far each produced a unique species CHC signal based around their alkene isomer production. A remarkable number of alkene isomers, up to 25 in M. asilvai, indicated the diversification of alkene positional isomers among the stingless bees. The only other group to have really diversified in alkene isomer production are the primitively eusocial Bumblebees (Bombus spp), which are the sister group of the stingless bees. Furthermore, among the eleven Neotropical Melipona species we could detect no effect of the environment on the proportion of alkane production as has been suggested for some other species