Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

BackgroundIn many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome.MethodsWe develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard.ResultsThe proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care.ConclusionsA valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived

Climate change promotes parasitism in a coral symbiosis.

Coastal oceans are increasingly eutrophic, warm and acidic through the addition of anthropogenic nitrogen and carbon, respectively. Among the most sensitive taxa to these changes are scleractinian corals, which engineer the most biodiverse ecosystems on Earth. Corals' sensitivity is a consequence of their evolutionary investment in symbiosis with the dinoflagellate alga, Symbiodinium. Together, the coral holobiont has dominated oligotrophic tropical marine habitats. However, warming destabilizes this association and reduces coral fitness. It has been theorized that, when reefs become warm and eutrophic, mutualistic Symbiodinium sequester more resources for their own growth, thus parasitizing their hosts of nutrition. Here, we tested the hypothesis that sub-bleaching temperature and excess nitrogen promotes symbiont parasitism by measuring respiration (costs) and the assimilation and translocation of both carbon (energy) and nitrogen (growth; both benefits) within Orbicella faveolata hosting one of two Symbiodinium phylotypes using a dual stable isotope tracer incubation at ambient (26 °C) and sub-bleaching (31 °C) temperatures under elevated nitrate. Warming to 31 °C reduced holobiont net primary productivity (NPP) by 60% due to increased respiration which decreased host %carbon by 15% with no apparent cost to the symbiont. Concurrently, Symbiodinium carbon and nitrogen assimilation increased by 14 and 32%, respectively while increasing their mitotic index by 15%, whereas hosts did not gain a proportional increase in translocated photosynthates. We conclude that the disparity in benefits and costs to both partners is evidence of symbiont parasitism in the coral symbiosis and has major implications for the resilience of coral reefs under threat of global change

Value of epidermal growth factor receptor status compared with growth fraction and other factors for prognosis in early breast cancer.

The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is a transmembrane glycoprotein whose expression is important in the regulation of breast cancer cell growth. The relationship between EGFR status (determined by an immunocytochemical assay) and various prognostic factors was investigated in 164 primary breast cancers. Overall 56% of tumours were EGFR-positive and the expression of EGFR was unrelated to axillary node status, tumour size and histological grade; and it was poorly associated with the tumour proliferative activity measured by Ki-67 immuno-cytochemistry. The relapse-free survival (RFS) probability at 3-years was significantly worse for patients with EGFR positive tumours (P = 0.003) and for those whose Ki-67 score was > 7.5% (P = 0.0027), as well as in patients with axillary node involvement (P = 0.01) and with poorly differentiated tumours (P = 0.04). Immunocytochemical determination of EGFR and cell kinetics gave superimposable prognostic information for predicting RFS with odds ratios of 3.51, when evaluated singly. In our series of patients EGFR, Ki-67 and node status retain their prognostic value concerning RFS in multivariate analysis. The 3-year probability of overall survival (OS) was significantly better in node-negative patients (P = 0.04) and was similar in EGFR-positive and negative patients. In conclusion, EGFR status appears to be a significant and independent indicator of recurrence in human breast cancer and the concomitant measurement of the tumour proliferative activity seems to improve the selection of patients with different risks of recurrence

Radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery in small breast carcinoma : Long-term results of a randomized trial

Background: Breast-conserving surgery followed by radiotherapy is a widely accepted form of treatment in patients with breast cancer of limited extent. Many attempts have been made to identify subgroups of patients who might avoid radiotherapy. Patients and methods: Between 1987 and 1989, 579 women with carcinoma of the breast were randomly assigned to quadrantectomy, axillary dissection and radiotherapy (299) and to quadrantectomy with axillary dissection without radiotherapy (280). Eligible patients were women with a breast carcinoma less than 2.5 cm in maximum diameter up to 70 years of age. Primary endpoints were intra-breast tumour reappearance (IBTR) and all-cause mortality. Results: The number of IBTRs was significantly higher in patients treated with surgery alone (59 cases out of 273; 10-year crude cumulative incidence of 23.5%) than in patients treated with surgery plus radiotherapy (16 cases out of 294; 10-year crude cumulative incidence of 5.8%). The difference in IBTR frequency between the two treatments appeared to be particularly high in women up to 45 years of age, tending to decrease with increasing age up to no apparent difference in women older than 65 years. Overall survival curves for the two groups, did not differ significantly (P = 0.326). However, a limited survival advantage was evident after radiotherapy for node-positive women. Conclusions: After breast-conserving surgery radiotherapy appears indicated in all patients up to 55 years of age, in patients with positive axillary nodes, and in patients with extensive intraductal component at histology. The data suggest that radiotherapy may be avoided in patients older than 65, and may be optional in women aged 56-65 years with negative nodes

Don’t forget the porpoise: acoustic monitoring reveals fine scale temporal variation between bottlenose dolphin and harbour porpoise in Cardigan Bay SAC

Populations of bottlenose dolphin and harbour porpoise inhabit Cardigan Bay, which was designated a Special Area of Conservation (SAC), with bottlenose dolphin listed as a primary feature for its conservation status. Understanding the abundance, distribution and habitat use of species is fundamental for conservation and the implementation of management. Bottlenose dolphin and harbour porpoise usage of feeding sites within Cardigan Bay SAC was examined using passive acoustic monitoring. Acoustic detections recorded with calibrated T-PODs (acoustic data loggers) indicated harbour porpoise to be present year round and in greater relative abundance than bottlenose dolphin. Fine-scale temporal partitioning between the species occurred at three levels: (1) seasonal differences, consistent between years, with porpoise detections peaking in winter months and dolphin detections in summer months; (2) diel variation, consistent across sites, seasons and years, with porpoise detections highest at night and dolphin detections highest shortly after sunrise; and (3) tidal variation was observed with peak dolphin detections occurring during ebb at the middle of the tidal cycle and before low tide, whereas harbour porpoise detections were highest at slack water, during and after high water with a secondary peak recorded during and after low water. General Additive Models (GAMs) were applied to better understand the effects of each covariate. The reported abundance and distribution of the two species, along with the temporal variation observed, have implications for the design and management of protected areas. Currently, in the UK, no SACs have been formally designated for harbour porpoise while three exist for bottlenose dolphins. Here, we demonstrate a need for increased protection and species-specific mitigation measures for harbour porpoise

Expanding the perspective of translational medicine: the value of observational data

In 2003, the Journal of Translational Medicine was launched to foster the publication of high quality research in both "bench-to-bedside" as well as ex vivo human observation. In spite of the success of several large-scale observational studies, e.g. Framingham Heart Study, the opportunity to expand upon the ex vivo human observation has remained limited within the field of translational medicine. We believe that this presents a significant opportunity that merits consideration in both the planning and analysis of large scale observational studies and can contribute greatly to expanding our approaches in translational medicin

The impact of seawater saturation state and bicarbonate ion concentration on calcification by new recruits of two Atlantic corals

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Coral Reefs 30 (2011): 321-328, doi:10.1007/s00338-010-0697-z.Rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are changing the carbonate chemistry of the oceans, a process known as ocean acidification (OA). Absorption of this CO2 by the surface oceans is increasing the amount of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and bicarbonate ion (HCO3 -) available for marine calcification, yet is simultaneously lowering the seawater pH and carbonate ion concentration ([CO3 2-]), and thus the saturation state of seawater with respect to aragonite (Ωar). We investigated the relative importance of [HCO3 -] versus [CO3 2-] for early calcification by new recruits (primary polyps settled from zooxanthellate larvae) of two tropical coral species, Favia fragum and Porites astreoides. The polyps were reared over a range of Ωar values, which were manipulated by both acid-addition at constant pCO2 (decreased total [HCO3 -] and [CO3 2-]) and by pCO2 elevation at constant alkalinity (increased [HCO3 -], decreased [CO3 2-]). Calcification after two weeks was quantified by weighing the complete skeleton (corallite) accreted by each polyp over the course of the experiment. Both species exhibited the same negative response to decreasing [CO3 2-] whether Ωar was lowered by acid-addition or by pCO2 elevation - calcification did not follow total DIC or [HCO3 -]. Nevertheless, the calcification response to decreasing [CO3 2-] was non-linear. A statistically significant decrease in calcification was only detected between Ωar = < 2.5 and Ωar = 1.1 – 1.5, where calcification of new recruits was reduced by 22 – 37 % per 1.0 decrease in Ωar. Our results differ from many previous studies that report a linear coral calcification response to OA, and from those showing that calcification increases with increasing [HCO3 -]. Clearly, the coral calcification response to OA is variable and complex. A deeper understanding of the biomineralization mechanisms and environmental conditions underlying these 3 variable responses is needed to support informed predictions about future OA impacts on corals and coral reefs.This study was supported by NSF award 0648157 (Cohen and McCorkle), NSF 1041106 (Cohen, McCorkle), NSF 1041052 (de Putron), the VITA foundation (de Putron), WHOI Ocean Life Institute (Cohen), PEI and EEB Departments at Princeton University, Bill and Anne Charrier, and the Anthony B. Evnin, Dean’s Roundtable, and Edmund Hayes Sr. senior thesis funds (Dillon)

Vascular endothelial growth factor in node-positive breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant tamoxifen

In 212 postmenopausal women with node-positive oestrogen receptor-positive (ER(LBA)) breast cancer subjected to radical surgery and adjuvant tamoxifen, the risk of 6-year relapse increased with increasing values of intratumoral vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in patients whose tumours had a low/intermediate ER(LBA) content compared to patients with high-ER(LBA) tumours. These findings indicate that tumour progression, activated or sustained by high VEGF levels, may be counteracted in high-ER(LBA) cancers by tamoxifen, which in contrast fails to contrast the metastatic potential in low-ER(LBA) tumours