Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Overweight and obesity is a global epidemic. Forecasting future trajectories of the epidemic is crucial for providing an evidence base for policy change. In this study, we examine the historical trends of the global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future trajectories to 2050. Methods: Leveraging established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among individuals aged 25 years and older by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2050. Retrospective and current prevalence trends were derived based on both self-reported and measured anthropometric data extracted from 1350 unique sources, which include survey microdata and reports, as well as published literature. Specific adjustment was applied to correct for self-report bias. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models were used to synthesise data, leveraging both spatial and temporal correlation in epidemiological trends, to optimise the comparability of results across time and geographies. To generate forecast estimates, we used forecasts of the Socio-demographic Index and temporal correlation patterns presented as annualised rate of change to inform future trajectories. We considered a reference scenario assuming the continuation of historical trends. Findings: Rates of overweight and obesity increased at the global and regional levels, and in all nations, between 1990 and 2021. In 2021, an estimated 1·00 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·989–1·01) adult males and 1·11 billion (1·10–1·12) adult females had overweight and obesity. China had the largest population of adults with overweight and obesity (402 million [397–407] individuals), followed by India (180 million [167–194]) and the USA (172 million [169–174]). The highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed in countries in Oceania and north Africa and the Middle East, with many of these countries reporting prevalence of more than 80% in adults. Compared with 1990, the global prevalence of obesity had increased by 155·1% (149·8–160·3) in males and 104·9% (95% UI 100·9–108·8) in females. The most rapid rise in obesity prevalence was observed in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region, where age-standardised prevalence rates in males more than tripled and in females more than doubled. Assuming the continuation of historical trends, by 2050, we forecast that the total number of adults living with overweight and obesity will reach 3·80 billion (95% UI 3·39–4·04), over half of the likely global adult population at that time. While China, India, and the USA will continue to constitute a large proportion of the global population with overweight and obesity, the number in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region is forecasted to increase by 254·8% (234·4–269·5). In Nigeria specifically, the number of adults with overweight and obesity is forecasted to rise to 141 million (121–162) by 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest population with overweight and obesity. Interpretation: No country to date has successfully curbed the rising rates of adult overweight and obesity. Without immediate and effective intervention, overweight and obesity will continue to increase globally. Particularly in Asia and Africa, driven by growing populations, the number of individuals with overweight and obesity is forecast to rise substantially. These regions will face a considerable increase in obesity-related disease burden. Merely acknowledging obesity as a global health issue would be negligent on the part of global health and public health practitioners; more aggressive and targeted measures are required to address this crisis, as obesity is one of the foremost avertible risks to health now and in the future and poses an unparalleled threat of premature disease and death at local, national, and global levels. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Receptor-defined subtypes of breast cancer in indigenous populations in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most common female cancer in Africa. Receptor-defined subtypes are a major determinant of treatment options and disease outcomes but there is considerable uncertainty regarding the frequency of poor prognosis estrogen receptor (ER) negative subtypes in Africa. We systematically reviewed publications reporting on the frequency of breast cancer receptor-defined subtypes in indigenous populations in Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Medline, Embase, and Global Health were searched for studies published between 1st January 1980 and 15th April 2014. Reported proportions of ER positive (ER+), progesterone receptor positive (PR+), and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 positive (HER2+) disease were extracted and 95% CI calculated. Random effects meta-analyses were used to pool estimates. Fifty-four studies from North Africa (n=12,284 women with breast cancer) and 26 from sub-Saharan Africa (n=4,737) were eligible. There was marked between-study heterogeneity in the ER+ estimates in both regions (I2>90%), with the majority reporting proportions between 0.40 and 0.80 in North Africa and between 0.20 and 0.70 in sub-Saharan Africa. Similarly, large between-study heterogeneity was observed for PR+ and HER2+ estimates (I2>80%, in all instances). Meta-regression analyses showed that the proportion of ER+ disease was 10% (4%-17%) lower for studies based on archived tumor blocks rather than prospectively collected specimens, and 9% (2%-17%) lower for those with ≥ 40% versus those with <40% grade 3 tumors. For prospectively collected samples, the pooled proportions for ER+ and triple negative tumors were 0.59 (0.56-0.62) and 0.21 (0.17-0.25), respectively, regardless of region. Limitations of the study include the lack of standardized procedures across the various studies; the low methodological quality of many studies in terms of the representativeness of their case series and the quality of the procedures for collection, fixation, and receptor testing; and the possibility that women with breast cancer may have contributed to more than one study. CONCLUSIONS: The published data from the more appropriate prospectively measured specimens are consistent with the majority of breast cancers in Africa being ER+. As no single subtype dominates in the continent availability of receptor testing should be a priority, especially for young women with early stage disease where appropriate receptor-specific treatment modalities offer the greatest potential for reducing years of life lost. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Nutritional Profile and Carbohydrate Characterization of Spray-Dried Lentil, Pea and Chickpea Ingredients

Although many consumers know that pulses are nutritious, long preparation times are frequently a barrier to consumption of lentils, dried peas and chickpeas. Therefore, a product has been developed which can be used as an ingredient in a wide variety of dishes without presoaking or precooking. Dried green peas, chickpeas or lentils were soaked, cooked, homogenized and spray-dried. Proximate analyses were conducted on the pulse powders and compared to an instant mashed potato product. Because the health benefits of pulses may be due in part to their carbohydrate content, a detailed carbohydrate analysis was carried out on the pulse powders. Pulse powders were higher in protein and total dietary fibre and lower in starch than potato flakes. After processing, the pulse powders maintained appreciable amounts of resistant starch (4.4%–5.2%). Total dietary fibre was higher in chickpeas and peas (26.2% and 27.1% respectively) than lentils (21.9%), whereas lentils had the highest protein content (22.7%). Pulse carbohydrates were rich in glucose, arabinose, galactose and uronic acids. Stachyose, a fermentable fibre, was the most abundant oligosaccharide, making up 1.5%–2.4% of the dried pulse powders. Spray-drying of cooked, homogenized pulses produces an easy to use ingredient with strong nutritional profile

Experimentally testing the dependence of momentum transport on second derivatives using Gaussian process regression

It remains an open question to explain the dramatic change in intrinsic rotation induced by slight changes in electron density (White et al 2013 Phys. Plasmas 20 056106). One proposed explanation is that momentum transport is sensitive to the second derivatives of the temperature and density profiles (Lee et al 2015 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 57 125006), but it is widely considered to be impossible to measure these higher derivatives. In this paper, we show that it is possible to estimate second derivatives of electron density and temperature using a nonparametric regression technique known as Gaussian process regression. This technique avoids over-constraining the fit by not assuming an explicit functional form for the fitted curve. The uncertainties, obtained rigorously using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, are small enough that it is reasonable to explore hypotheses which depend on second derivatives. It is found that the differences in the second derivatives of and between the peaked and hollow rotation cases are rather small, suggesting that changes in the second derivatives are not likely to explain the experimental results

Factors Associated With, and Mitigation Strategies for, Health Care Disparities Faced by Patients With Headache Disorders

ObjectiveTo review contemporary issues of health care disparities in headache medicine with regard to race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), and geography and propose solutions for addressing these disparities.MethodsAn Internet and PubMed search was performed and literature was reviewed for key concepts underpinning disparities in headache medicine. Content was refined to areas most salient to our goal of informing the provision of equitable care in headache treatment through discussions with a group of 16 experts from a range of headache subspecialties.ResultsTaken together, a multitude of factors, including racism, SES, insurance status, and geographical disparities, contribute to the inequities that exist within the health care system when treating headache disorders. Interventions such as improving public education, advocacy, optimizing telemedicine, engaging in community outreach to educate primary care providers, training providers in cultural sensitivity and competence and implicit bias, addressing health literacy, and developing recruitment strategies to increase representation of underserved groups within headache research are proposed as solutions to ameliorate disparities.ConclusionNeurologists have a responsibility to provide and deliver equitable care to all. It is important that disparities in the management of headache disorders are identified and addressed.</jats:sec

Video3_Calcium signaling mediates proliferation of the precursor cells that give rise to the ciliated left-right organizer in the zebrafish embryo.MOV

Several of our internal organs, including heart, lungs, stomach, and spleen, develop asymmetrically along the left-right (LR) body axis. Errors in establishing LR asymmetry, or laterality, of internal organs during early embryonic development can result in birth defects. In several vertebrates—including humans, mice, frogs, and fish—cilia play a central role in establishing organ laterality. Motile cilia in a transient embryonic structure called the “left-right organizer” (LRO) generate a directional fluid flow that has been proposed to be detected by mechanosensory cilia to trigger asymmetric signaling pathways that orient the LR axis. However, the mechanisms that control the form and function of the ciliated LRO remain poorly understood. In the zebrafish embryo, precursor cells called dorsal forerunner cells (DFCs) develop into a transient ciliated structure called Kupffer’s vesicle (KV) that functions as the LRO. DFCs can be visualized and tracked in the embryo, thereby providing an opportunity to investigate mechanisms that control LRO development. Previous work revealed that proliferation of DFCs via mitosis is a critical step for developing a functional KV. Here, we conducted a targeted pharmacological screen to identify mechanisms that control DFC proliferation. Small molecule inhibitors of the sarcoplasmic/endoplasmic reticulum Ca2+-ATPase (SERCA) were found to reduce DFC mitosis. The SERCA pump is involved in regulating intracellular calcium ion (Ca2+) concentration. To visualize Ca2+ in living embryos, we generated transgenic zebrafish using the fluorescent Ca2+ biosensor GCaMP6f. Live imaging identified dynamic cytoplasmic Ca2+ transients (“flux”) that occur unambiguously in DFCs. In addition, we report Ca2+ flux events that occur in the nucleus of DFCs. Nuclear Ca2+ flux occurred in DFCs that were about to undergo mitosis. We find that SERCA inhibitor treatments during DFC proliferation stages alters Ca2+ dynamics, reduces the number of ciliated cells in KV, and alters embryo laterality. Mechanistically, SERCA inhibitor treatments eliminated both cytoplasmic and nuclear Ca2+ flux events, and reduced progression of DFCs through the S/G2 phases of the cell cycle. These results identify SERCA-mediated Ca2+ signaling as a mitotic regulator of the precursor cells that give rise to the ciliated LRO.</p

Video5_Calcium signaling mediates proliferation of the precursor cells that give rise to the ciliated left-right organizer in the zebrafish embryo.AVI

Several of our internal organs, including heart, lungs, stomach, and spleen, develop asymmetrically along the left-right (LR) body axis. Errors in establishing LR asymmetry, or laterality, of internal organs during early embryonic development can result in birth defects. In several vertebrates—including humans, mice, frogs, and fish—cilia play a central role in establishing organ laterality. Motile cilia in a transient embryonic structure called the “left-right organizer” (LRO) generate a directional fluid flow that has been proposed to be detected by mechanosensory cilia to trigger asymmetric signaling pathways that orient the LR axis. However, the mechanisms that control the form and function of the ciliated LRO remain poorly understood. In the zebrafish embryo, precursor cells called dorsal forerunner cells (DFCs) develop into a transient ciliated structure called Kupffer’s vesicle (KV) that functions as the LRO. DFCs can be visualized and tracked in the embryo, thereby providing an opportunity to investigate mechanisms that control LRO development. Previous work revealed that proliferation of DFCs via mitosis is a critical step for developing a functional KV. Here, we conducted a targeted pharmacological screen to identify mechanisms that control DFC proliferation. Small molecule inhibitors of the sarcoplasmic/endoplasmic reticulum Ca2+-ATPase (SERCA) were found to reduce DFC mitosis. The SERCA pump is involved in regulating intracellular calcium ion (Ca2+) concentration. To visualize Ca2+ in living embryos, we generated transgenic zebrafish using the fluorescent Ca2+ biosensor GCaMP6f. Live imaging identified dynamic cytoplasmic Ca2+ transients (“flux”) that occur unambiguously in DFCs. In addition, we report Ca2+ flux events that occur in the nucleus of DFCs. Nuclear Ca2+ flux occurred in DFCs that were about to undergo mitosis. We find that SERCA inhibitor treatments during DFC proliferation stages alters Ca2+ dynamics, reduces the number of ciliated cells in KV, and alters embryo laterality. Mechanistically, SERCA inhibitor treatments eliminated both cytoplasmic and nuclear Ca2+ flux events, and reduced progression of DFCs through the S/G2 phases of the cell cycle. These results identify SERCA-mediated Ca2+ signaling as a mitotic regulator of the precursor cells that give rise to the ciliated LRO.</p

Image1_Calcium signaling mediates proliferation of the precursor cells that give rise to the ciliated left-right organizer in the zebrafish embryo.TIFF

Several of our internal organs, including heart, lungs, stomach, and spleen, develop asymmetrically along the left-right (LR) body axis. Errors in establishing LR asymmetry, or laterality, of internal organs during early embryonic development can result in birth defects. In several vertebrates—including humans, mice, frogs, and fish—cilia play a central role in establishing organ laterality. Motile cilia in a transient embryonic structure called the “left-right organizer” (LRO) generate a directional fluid flow that has been proposed to be detected by mechanosensory cilia to trigger asymmetric signaling pathways that orient the LR axis. However, the mechanisms that control the form and function of the ciliated LRO remain poorly understood. In the zebrafish embryo, precursor cells called dorsal forerunner cells (DFCs) develop into a transient ciliated structure called Kupffer’s vesicle (KV) that functions as the LRO. DFCs can be visualized and tracked in the embryo, thereby providing an opportunity to investigate mechanisms that control LRO development. Previous work revealed that proliferation of DFCs via mitosis is a critical step for developing a functional KV. Here, we conducted a targeted pharmacological screen to identify mechanisms that control DFC proliferation. Small molecule inhibitors of the sarcoplasmic/endoplasmic reticulum Ca2+-ATPase (SERCA) were found to reduce DFC mitosis. The SERCA pump is involved in regulating intracellular calcium ion (Ca2+) concentration. To visualize Ca2+ in living embryos, we generated transgenic zebrafish using the fluorescent Ca2+ biosensor GCaMP6f. Live imaging identified dynamic cytoplasmic Ca2+ transients (“flux”) that occur unambiguously in DFCs. In addition, we report Ca2+ flux events that occur in the nucleus of DFCs. Nuclear Ca2+ flux occurred in DFCs that were about to undergo mitosis. We find that SERCA inhibitor treatments during DFC proliferation stages alters Ca2+ dynamics, reduces the number of ciliated cells in KV, and alters embryo laterality. Mechanistically, SERCA inhibitor treatments eliminated both cytoplasmic and nuclear Ca2+ flux events, and reduced progression of DFCs through the S/G2 phases of the cell cycle. These results identify SERCA-mediated Ca2+ signaling as a mitotic regulator of the precursor cells that give rise to the ciliated LRO.</p