The dynamics of land use-land cover changes for the years 1984, 1992, 2001 and 2014 in Mutasa district, Zimbabwe

Tropical woodlands in southern Africa are a primary focus of conservation efforts because they are currently under threat from rapid clearing for agriculture and human settlements. A study was carried out in Mutasa district (18°35′0″S and 32°45′0″E) in northern Eastern Zimbabwe using data that spanned the period 1984 to 2014 in order to quantify the spatial and following the conversion to agricultural lands. The land cover changes analysis for the district showed a marked decline in land areas under woodland and considerable increase in area devoted to cultivation. Temporal land-use and land cover changes in Mutasa district on the woodland and plantation forests cover.The annual rate of net cover change from natural woodland to cropland in the district was 0.8% and this was generally higher than the annual rate of net cover changes in tropical Africa which averages 0.36%. The period from 1992 to witnessed the highest daily conversion rate of commercial farm land under woodland (miombo) and forest plantations to cropland of about 3 ha per day and this also coincided with the Fast Track Land Reform Programme which started in 2000

The biomechanical role of periodontal ligament in bonded and replanted vertically fractured teeth under cyclic biting forces

After teeth are replanted, there are two possible healing responses: periodontal ligament healing or ankylosis with subsequent replacement resorption. The purpose of this study was to compare the fatigue resistance of vertically fractured teeth after bonding the fragments under conditions simulating both healing modes. Thirty-two human premolars were vertically fractured and the fragments were bonded together with Super-Bond C&B. They were then randomly distributed into four groups (BP, CP, CA, BA). The BP and CP groups were used to investigate the periodontal ligament healing mode whilst the BA and CA groups simulated ankylosis. All teeth had root canal treatment performed. Metal crowns were constructed for the CP and CA groups. The BP and BA groups only had composite resin restorations in the access cavities. All specimens were subjected to a 260 N load at 4 Hz until failure of the bond or until 2×106 cycles had been reached if no fracture occurred. Cracks were detected by stereomicroscope imaging and also assessed via dye penetration tests. Finally, interfaces of the resin luting agent were examined by scanning electron microscope. The results confirmed that the fatigue resistance was higher in the groups with simulated periodontal ligament healing. Periodontal reattachment showed important biomechanical role in bonded and replanted vertically fractured teeth

Laboratory and field investigations into the Theileria parva carrier-state in cattle in Zimbabwe

The Theileria parva carrier-state in cattle on commercial farms on Zimbabwe was investigated using parasitological and serological methods. The proportion of cattle showing Theileria piroplasms on two farms, which had recent histories of disease outbreaks, were 64% ( n=106, total of heifers and weaned calves examined) and 71.5% ( n=60) while the proportion of T. parva antibodies for the same animals were 59% and 98.5%, respectively. On four farms where no cases of the disease occurred for over 10 years, the average proportion of animals showing piroplasms and antibodies were 55.4% (range 32-82, n=223) and 73% (range 47-91, n=223), respectively. However, on another three farms which had no history of theileriosis outbreaks these proportions were very low, being 11.4% (0-24, n=157) for piroplasms and 12.2% (5-23, n=157) for antibodies. The mean infection rate in unfed Rhipicephalus appendiculatus adults collected from farms with a high prevalence of cattle which were carriers of Theileria piroplasms during the tick activity season was 29% (range 12-60%) with 9.3 (range 2-18.7) mean infected acini per infected tick. The infectivity of different tick batches to susceptible cattle produced a wide spectrum of theileriosis reactions. Laboratory controlled experiments were carried out to study the persistence of T. parva (Boleni) piroplasms in cattle immunized with this strain as well as its infectivity for ticks and its subsequent transmissibility to cattle. Examination of the salivary glands of 15 batches of ticks collected from six immunized cattle on three different occasions over 18 months showed that none were infected with Theileria parasites. However, the infectivity of other ticks in the same batches to susceptible animals was demonstrated 6, 10 and 18 months after cattle had been immunized with Boleni stabilate.The articles have been scanned in colour with a HP Scanjet 5590; 600dpi. Adobe Acrobat v.9 was used to OCR the text and also for the merging and conversion to the final presentation PDF-format.Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). DANIDA. Government of Zimbabwe.mn201

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Exposure of cattle immunized with different stocks of Theileria parva to buffalo-associated Theileria challenge on two game parks in Zimbabwe

Eight cattle immunized with cattle-derived Theileria parva Boleni stabilate together with six susceptible controls were released in Dombawera Game Park on the Highveld of Zimbabwe. This coincided with Rhipicephalus appendiculatus nymphal activity. The cattle grazed together with African buffaloes ( Syncerus caffer) and were not treated against tick infestation. The nymphal tick infestation was high, and seven of the eight immunized cattle and three of the controls had severe and fatal reactions. Subsequently, two stocks of Theileria parva to be tested for their immunizing abilities were prepared - one from adult ticks which were fed as nymphs on one of the sick control animals (Dom 268) and the other from adult ticks collected from pastures grazed by buffaloes (Bv-1). Two groups of cattle were immunized with either the Dom 268-derived strain (eight animals) or the Bv-1-derived strain (four animals). These together with three non-immunized controls, were released in Bally Vaughaun Game Park in the Highveld, where buffaloes are present, during the season of nymphal tick activity. A third group of five cattle, immunized with stabilate Bv-1, and three non-immunized controls were released at the same site during the season of adult tick activity. The nymphal and adult tick infestations of the cattle were large and more than 2000 nymphs and 1000 adult ticks were counted per animal. Cattle were treated with a pyrethroid pour-on preparation to control the tick infestation and screw-worm strike. The immunized cattle in the three groups survived the theileriosis challenge for a period of 18 months, but the non-immunized control cattle suffered a severe and fatal theileriosis 19-23 days after being placed on the pasture.The articles have been scanned in colour with a HP Scanjet 5590; 600dpi. Adobe Acrobat v.9 was used to OCR the text and also for the merging and conversion to the final presentation PDF-format.Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. DANIDA. Government of Zimbabwe.mn201

Epidemiological observations of Zimbabwean theileriosis: disease incidence and pathogenicity in susceptible cattle during Rhipicephalus appendiculatus nymphal and adult seasonal activity

Fifty-nine Hereford cattle susceptible to tick-borne diseases were used as tracer animals to assess the tick challenge and pathogenicity of Theileria parva under field conditions in Zimbabwe. They were moved periodically in groups of five to three commercial farms (one group consisted of four) during seasons of Rhipicephalus appendiculatus nymphal and adult activity. All tracer cattle were herded together with the farm cattle but were not dipped. The nymphal tick counts were high on two of the farms (up to 2000 per animal) but were very low on the third farm (less than ten per animal). On the three farms, 19 out of 24 (76%) tracers had patent Theileria schizonts. There was a range of clinical manifestations of theileriosis with acute and fatal infections occurring on one farm. The adult R. appendiculatus infestations during the wet season numbered 120-800 per animal on the three farms. The disease transmitted by the adults was very pathogenic on the three farms; 30 out of 35 (86%) had severe theileriosis infections. Cattle, which survived the nymphal diseases challenge, showed various degrees of immunity to subsequent T. parva challenge transmitted by adult ticks. Therefore, 13 out of 18 (72%) of these cattle had a second disease episode and the case fatality rate on the three farms was 46%. The factors which determined the epidemiological status of Theileria challenge on the farms, such as the farming systems and presence of wild animals, are discussed.The articles have been scanned in colour with a HP Scanjet 5590; 600dpi. Adobe Acrobat v.9 was used to OCR the text and also for the merging and conversion to the final presentation PDF-format.Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. DANIDA. Government of Zimbabwe.mn201

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Soil seed bank of the invasive Robinia pseudoacacia in planted Pinus nigra stands

Pinus nigra and Robinia pseudoacacia are exotic trees used for afforestation in Hungary. Pinus nigra was non-invasive, however R. pseudoacacia escaped from cultivation and invaded several vegetation types including pine plantations. It has recently been planned to cut P. nigra plantations and replace them by native tree stands, especially in nature reserves. The scattered presence of R. pseudoacacia specimens in pine stands might place constraints on planned tree replacement because of their vegetative resprouting and recolonization from an established seed bank. The aim of this study was to investigate the soil seed bank under the canopy of solitary R. pseudoacacia specimens found in P. nigra plantations. Altogether 250 soil samples were collected from the 0–6 and 6–12 cm soil layers under solitary Robinia trees of varying ages (with basal areas between 62.4 and 1089.3 cm2). Seeds were separated by sieving then scarified and germinated. Seed bank density ranged between 640 and 2285 seedsm–2 with an average distribution of 82.7% and 17.3% in the upper and lower soil layer, respectively. Total density of the seed bank and also the seed bank ratio of the lower soil layer increased with tree age. The accumulated seed bank of R. pseudoacacia should be considered in the careful planning of tree replacement operations in Pinus nigra stands

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation