Real Income Convergence between Central Eastern and Western Europe: Past, Present, and Prospects

The paper presents an analysis of real income convergence between the 11 countries of Central Eastern Europe which have joined the European Union (EU11) and 15 countries of Western Europe (EU15) in the period 1993-2015. The evolution of the income gap between the two groups of countries in terms of GDP per capita at PPP reveals a clear-cut tendency towards income convergence over the analyzed period, confirmed also by the results of beta and sigma convergence tests. However, the catching-up process was not continuous, showing some breaks and divergence episodes. The most intensive convergence appeared in the years 2000-2007, just before and after the EU's major enlargement. This suggests that the increasing economic integration stimulated the convergence process. But the global economic crisis, along with financial perturbations in the euro area, have slowed down the convergence in most CEE countries, as reflected by changes in the income gap observed in the years 2007-2015. The paper also presents some projections of the convergence prospects, with three scenarios as to the future economic growth. The first two scenarios assume the continuation of past or current growth trends and the maintenance of positive growth rate differentials, indicating the probable length of the period needed by the individual CEE countries to attain the average GDP per capita level seen in Western Europe. The third scenario, based on a long-term economic forecast for the EU economies, warns that economic growth in the region may slow down due mainly to unfavorable demographic trends, with the resulting deceleration of the convergence process, up to its total halt or reversal into divergence. Proper social and economic policies are needed, both on the country level and in the framework of the common European policy, in order to assure a healthy economic growth in the CEE area and to maintain the convergence process within the EU

Comparative Economic Performance: Poland and the European Union

The aim of this chapter is to assess changes in the competitiveness of the Polish economy from 2010 to 2015. The analysis covers the basic indicators of economic development, such as GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, balance of public finances, and current account balance. Poland’s economic indicators are compared with those reported by other European Union member states

Income Convergence in Poland vis-à-vis the EU: Major Trends and Prospects

The chapter intends to assess income convergence among the 11 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries that joined the EU in 2004, 2007, and 2013: Poland, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia (EU11). Convergence in these countries is analyzed in relation to the old EU members (EU15). We also present a simulative forecast of the catching-up process between the CEE countries and Western Europe. Our forecast (or, more precisely, simulation) will be made according to three hypothetical scenarios

Nowe i stare kraje Unii Europejskiej: : konwergencja czy dywergencja?

The article shows the empirical evidence on real convergence of the CEE countries towards Western Europe. Referring to our earlier analyses, we present new and updated projections of decreasing the income gap between Poland and other CEE countries to EU-15. In the optimistic scenario, based on extrapolation of the 1994-2010 economic growth, Poland would need 19 years - starting from 2010 - to achieve the average level of GDP per capita at PPP of the EU-15. In the moderate scenario, based on the medium-term IMF projection of economic growth and the long-term Eurostat demographic projection, Poland would need 23 years to close up the income gap. If the income gap was measured at current exchange rates, that period would increase to about 40 years. In the warning scenario, based on the European Commission's long-term forecast indicating decreasing population and further ageing of the society, we show the appearance of divergence tendencies about 2040. (original abstract)Artykuł omawia wyniki dotychczasowych badań nad konwergencją dochodową krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej i Europy Zachodniej. Nawiązując do naszych wcześniejszych badań, przedstawiliśmy nowe, zaktualizowane prognozy zmniejszania luki dochodowej między Polską i pozostałymi krajami tego regionu a zachodnią "piętnastką". W scenariuszu optymistycznym, opartym na ekstrapolacji trendów wzrostu gospodarczego z okresu 1994-2010, Polska potrzebowałaby 19 lat, licząc od 2010 r., aby osiągnąć przeciętny poziom PKB per capita wg PSN w krajach UE15. W scenariuszu umiarkowanym, opartym na średniookresowej prognozie wzrostu PKB sporządzonej przez MFW i długookresowej prognozie demograficznej Eurostatu, likwidacja istniejącej luki dochodowej byłaby możliwa w ciągu 23 lat. Gdyby lukę dochodową mierzyć według bieżących kursów walutowych, okres ten wydłużyłby się do około 40 lat. W ostrzegawczym scenariuszu, opartym na długookresowej prognozie Komisji Europejskiej, uwzględniającej dalszy spadek liczby ludności i starzenie się społeczeństwa, sygnalizujemy możliwość odwrócenia tendencji konwergencyjnych około 2040 r. i ponownego zwiększania się luki rozwojowej między Europą Środkowo-Wschodnią a Europą Zachodnią. (abstrakt oryginalny

Neoadjuvant therapy for breast cancer patients and its impact on surgical treatment and radiotherapy (part 1.)

Neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) is increasingly applied in patients with initially inoperable breast cancers and, frequently, in those with tumours that are initially operable, too. In most cases, the response to the applied NAT affects the scope of surgical treatment and radiotherapy, and in some situations also the complementary systemic postoperative treatment. The available studies indicate importance of response to NAT within the breast and regional lymph nodes. Assessment of response to treatment allows personalization of treatment and in some cases a change of therapy, which improves long-term outcomes. This article summarizes the current rules of conduct in patients with early breast cancer qualified for neoadjuvant thera­py, paying attention to the practical aspects and possibilities of national health insurance-covered therapies in Poland. It discusses in detail the applied regimens of systemic therapy, surgical techniques, eligibility rules and complementary radiotherapy. Systems for assessing response to neoadjuvant treatment are also presented

Transition, Integration and Convergence. The Case of Romania

This volume comprises several studies and papers published in the last decades. They have been selected and ranged so that to provide a minimum of coherence concerning the phases which Romania has crossed in her way to the advanced socio-economic system of European type: transition to the market economy, accession to the EU, the economic convergence in the three fundamental domains: institutions, real economy, and nominal economy. The readers may find in this volume a description of debates, difficulties and solutions adopted for building-up the market economy by a state being in a profound transformation from weak transition institutions towards hard democratic institutions. Because the transition to the market economy and the association of Romania with the EU and then the integration presenting strategic political decisions, I have included in this work two studies devoted to the political forces state and political parties that elaborated and applied these strategic decisions underlining their structure, role and function and their transformation. Integration into the EU of a country like Romania, which emerged from a different system comparing with the West-European one, has proved to be difficult and lasting many years because of the structural transformations. In five chapters I am referring to the essential characteristics of the integration process, such as: market liberalization, competitiveness of the local (national) firms on the national and EU markets, institutional reforms so that the institutions of candidate countries have to become compatible with those of the EU and finally the perspective assessment to find out the real and nominal convergence. Putting into practice the EU competitivity and cohesion principles, Romania has good prospects to close, in a reasonable time, the economic gap and to be admitted into the Euro Zone. Although the real convergence of Romania with the EU requires higher growth rates for the former, a new approach is compulsory to take into consideration the environment quality, the natural resources and the equity between the present and the future generations as natural resource consumers. Just these problems have determined me to include in this volume the last two chapters which, on the one hand, try to prove the necessity of the economy growth harmonization with the environment evolution as well as the saving of the energy resources, and, on the other hand, to point out the main ways to be followed and instruments to be used

Composite Indicators of Economic Situation for Polish Economy Based on Results of Researches

This is follow-up study to the paper presented at the 24th CIRET Conference in Wellington. The paper contains an updated and revised analysis of the applicability of survey data in monitoring systems based on barometric methods, devised to evaluate the current condition of the economy. The first part shows the use of survey data in macroeconomic barometers for Poland, developed by the author according to OECD standards. The second part compares various concepts of the synthetic indicator of business activity for Poland, filled with survey data. Some of the alternative variants refer to the EU concept of economic sentiment indicator (ESI) while other are more closely linked to the GDP concept. The choice of the most adequate formula requires observation of the performance of alternative indicators over a longer time

General Indicator of Business activity for Poland

The article presents to concept of composite indicator of business activity for Poland based on monthly data reflecting the activity levels in the main sectors of the economy (industry, construction, agriculture, transports and trade) accounts for 60-80% of the GDP. Three alternative specifications of the composite index field with the data covering the period from 1975 to 1995, have been analyzed using the X11-ARIMA model and the OECD PAT procedure to identify the cyclical component movements. The discussion of the results has been preceded by a brief presentation of the basic concepts and procedures used in the analysis. The deseasonalized and detrended time series of the composite index reveal distinct fluctuations of the shape typical of the business cycle. The implant chronology of the cycles and characteristics of the amplitudes have been presented at some prevented with graphs showing the reconstructed picture of fluctuation

Synthetic Indicators of Economic Activity for Poland Based on the CSO Survey Data (1999)

This is a follow-up study to an earlier analysis by the author. Five altemative formulas of a generał indicator of economic activity for Poland, based on survey data, have been developed and tested in this study. Ali of them were filled with the CSO survey data for manufacturing, construction and retail trade, supplemented with consumer sentiment indicator provided by Demoskop and by the Warsaw exchange share - price - index. The resulting time series of general indicator, covering the period from November 1993 till December 1998, have been analyzed, using XI1-ARIMA and CCF procedures, in order to find the most adequate formula. Cyclical components of the generał indicator ZGG have been confronted with the reference index of economic activity GCI, developed by the author. As the result, three variants of the generał indicator have been selected for further testing. The final choice will be made in the course of the forthcoming analysis