Econometric Explorations on Bounded Rationality: The Case of Job Changing Behavior

In this paper we question the hypothesis of full rationality in the context of job changing behaviour, via simple econometric explorations on microdata drawn from WHIP (Worker Histories Italian Panel). A rational outcome of the job matching process implies a positive tradeoff between future wages and risk-on-the-job. The main result of this paper is that no “rational” tradeoff is observable after controlling for a variety of possible shifters. However, if we control for individual characteristics and replace wage growth by its predictor net of individual effects, the picture changes with the emergence of a significantly positive tradeoff between wage growth and risk-on-the-job. The interpretation is suggestive: while market forces (net of individual effects) drive towards a rational outcome, individual characteristics, instead of reinforcing the “rationality” of a positive tradeoff, lead towards the opposite direction of confounding good and bad options. Our explanation for these findings is that people act on the basis of bounded rationality à la Simon. If our assessment is correct, the implications are powerful: are there reasons to believe that such patterns are found only in the context of job search and worker mobility and not in other instances of economic behaviour ? Recent literature on bounded rationality strongly suggests the contrary. . Why, then, should economists leave unchallenged and unchallengeable the hypothesis of full rationality ? Had our investigation aimed at estimating the elasticities of wage growth and job safety of the workers’ utilities, we would have miserably failed. Is this a consequence of a mis-specified model or of the wrong behavioral assumptions ? Our support unquestionably goes to the latter.

Econometric explorations on bounded rationality: the case of job changing behavior

In this paper we question the hypothesis of full rationality in the context of job changing behavior, via simple econometric explorations on microdata drawn from WHIP (Worker Histories Italian Panel). A rational outcome of the job matching process implies a positive tradeoff between future wages and risk-on-the-job. The main result of this paper is that no rational tradeoff is observable after controlling for a variety of possible shifters. However, if we control for individual characteristics and replace wage growth by its predictor net of individual effects, the picture changes with the emergence of a significantly positive tradeoff between wage growth and risk-on-the-job. The interpretation is suggestive: while market forces (net of individual effects) drive towards a rational outcome, individual characteristics, instead of reinforcing the rationality of a positive tradeoff, lead towards the opposite direction of confounding good and bad options. Our explanation for these findings is that people act on the basis of bounded rationality à la Simon. If our assessment is correct, the implications are powerful: are there reasons to believe that such patterns are found only in the context of job search and worker mobility and not in other instances of economic behavior? Recent literature on bounded rationality strongly suggests the contrary. Why, then, should economists leave unchallenged and unchallengeable the hypothesis of full rationality? Had our investigation aimed at estimating the elasticities of wage growth and job safety of the workers' utilities, we would have miserably failed. Is this a consequence of a misspecified model or of the wrong behavioral assumptions? Our support unquestionably goes to the latte

Bridgeness: a novel centrality measure to detect global bridges

International audienceFinding nodes occupying interesting positions in a graph is useful to extract meaningful information from large datasets. While numerous measures have been proposed to evaluate the centrality of nodes, few indicators quantify the capacity of nodes to connect different regions of the graph. Usually, betweenness centrality is used for this purpose, but we show here that it gives equal scores to “local” centers (i.e. nodes of high degree central to a single region) and to “global” bridges, which connect different regions. This distinction is important because the roles of these nodes are quite diverse. For example, in networks of scientific collaborations, local centers correspond to nodes which are important for a single sub-discipline, while bridges correspond to nodes which connect different sub-disciplines, leading to interdisciplinary collaborations. We show that a new measure of network topology, the bridgeness, is able to discriminate between local centers and global bridges, in synthetic and real networks

Bridgeness: a novel centrality measure to detect global bridges

International audienceFinding nodes occupying interesting positions in a graph is useful to extract meaningful information from large datasets. While numerous measures have been proposed to evaluate the centrality of nodes, few indicators quantify the capacity of nodes to connect different regions of the graph. Usually, betweenness centrality is used for this purpose, but we show here that it gives equal scores to “local” centers (i.e. nodes of high degree central to a single region) and to “global” bridges, which connect different regions. This distinction is important because the roles of these nodes are quite diverse. For example, in networks of scientific collaborations, local centers correspond to nodes which are important for a single sub-discipline, while bridges correspond to nodes which connect different sub-disciplines, leading to interdisciplinary collaborations. We show that a new measure of network topology, the bridgeness, is able to discriminate between local centers and global bridges, in synthetic and real networks

a model for filter diagnostics in a syngas fed chp plant

Abstract Biomass gasification is an important opportunity for power generation and combined heat and power (CHP), as it allows for biomass use in high efficiency, low emissions energy systems, e.g., internal combustion engines. Biomass-based CHP is particularly interesting for the service sector, as it allows to use a programmable renewable energy source to produce both electricity and heat, unlike photovoltaic systems which are typically used in this sector. Yet, small-scale gasification and CHP systems have a poor diffusion, due to a lack of acknowledged reliability. To improve reliability and performance, accurate simulation models may be useful, in particular for system control and diagnosis. For this purpose, the project SYNBIOSE proposes the installation, testing and simulation of a commercial-grade system for the gasification of lignocellulosic woodchips and pellets coupled to CHP in the campus of the University of Parma. One of the project deliverables is a simulation model of the whole gasification and CHP plant, for system diagnosis. The model has a modular structure (to allow for improvements and applications) and is implemented in MATLAB®/Simulink®. The present work focuses on syngas filters, which are among the most critical components. The outcome is a model able to predict the operation of filters taking into account inlet gas characteristics and fouling. Model analysis, sensitivity analysis and validation showed that simulation outputs are consistent with the physical behavior and experimental data. The model proved to be useful for system and components simulation and diagnosis

Energy Performance Assessment of the Heating System Refurbishment on a School Building in Modena, Italy

Abstract The aim of this paper is the energy performance assessment of the school building Istituto Comprensivo "G. Marconi", located in Modena, Italy. This work describes the dynamic modeling of the building envelope and its heating system, carried out by means of the simulation software TRNSYS 17. According to the developed model, the school space heating loads, as well as the seasonal energy requirements, are evaluated by considering the actual heating system, which consists of gas-fired condensing boilers coupled to high temperature radiators. Then, the school heating system refurbishment is simulated: the paper evaluates the energy savings obtained by replacing boilers and radiators with an air-to-water multi-compressor heat pump, coupled to low temperature aluminum radiators, and by improving the system control strategy. Finally, the impact of the discussed energy saving measures on building energy performance and students thermal comfort is reported

Influence of the hydronic loop configuration on the energy performance of a CO2 heat pump for domestic hot water production in a multi-family building

In this work, a numerical analysis of the influence of the hydronic loop on the energy performance of a CO2 heat pump dedicated to DHW production for an apartment block located in Bologna (Italy) is presented. The energy model of the whole heating system, implemented in TRNSYS17, has been validated by means of a monitoring campaign performed during the winter season of 2017- 2018. The experimental results highlighted a poor and unexpected energy performance of the heat pump. The comparison between experimental and numerical results showed a significant penalty of the heat pump performance due to an erroneous use of the hot stratified thermal storage system. Outcomes of this paper confirm that CO2 heat pumps are very sensible to the temperature of the fresh water at the inlet of the gas cooler. This value can be strongly reduced thanks to the presence of the stratified tank in the hydronic loop

a library for the simulation of smart energy systems the case of the campus of the university of parma

Abstract Smart energy systems are complex systems (i.e. composed of windmills, PV panels, solar collectors, heat pumps, CHP systems, etc) in which synergies rise through the ICT (Information and Communications Technology) based management and control of the whole system. In the development of efficient smart energy systems, a fundamental step is the optimization of total energy conversion, transmission and utilization processes within the whole system. To this extent, mathematical models can represent very useful tools for the simulation of the behavior of the system. In this paper, a library for the dynamic simulation of smart energy systems is presented. The library is implemented in Matlab ® /Simulink ® and each component (i.e. the energy conversion and distribution systems and the end-users) is developed through a modular approach. Therefore, the modules are designed by considering a standardized input/output and causality structure. Finally, the capabilities of this approach are evaluated through the application to the district heating and cooling network of the Campus of the University of Parma. The case study is based on a branch which feeds twelve buildings with a total heating volume of about 150 000 m 3 and peak thermal power demand of about 8 MW. Results reported in the paper demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach and the capability in term of system optimization