Modelling and forecasting volatility of JSE sectoral indices: a Model Confidence Set exercise

Volatility plays an important role in option pricing and risk management. It is crucial that volatility is modelled as accurately as possible in order to forecast with confidence. The challenge is in the selection of the ‘best’ model with so many available models and selection criteria. The Model Confidence Set (MCS) solves this problem by choosing a group of models that are equally good. A set of GARCH models were estimated for several JSE indices and the MCS was used to trim the group of models to a subset of equally superior models. Using the Mean Squared Error to evaluate the relative performance of the MCS, GARCH (1,1) and Random Walk, it was found that the MCS, with an equally weighted combination of models, performed better than the GARCH (1,1) and Random Walk for instances where volatility in the returns data was high. For instances of low volatility in the returns, the GARCH (1,1) had superior 5-day forecasts but the MCS had better performance for 10-days and greater. The EGARCH (2,1) volatility model was selected by the MCS for 5 out of the 6 indices as the most superior model. The Random Walk was shown to have better long term forecasting performance

Results of A Local Combination Therapy Antibiogram For \u3cem\u3ePseudomonas Aeruginosa\u3c/em\u3e Isolates: Is Double Worth The Trouble?

Purpose: To determine the frequency at which fluoroquinolones and aminoglycosides demonstrate in vitro activity against non-urinary, non-skin/skin structure Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates exhibiting decreased susceptibilities to one or more β-lactam agents. Methods: β-lactam-non-susceptible P. aeruginosa isolates recovered from blood, bone, lower respiratory tract, pleural fluid, cerebrospinal fluid, or peritoneal fluid cultures between October 2010 and October 2014 were reviewed from four community hospitals within a single health-system. Only the first isolate per patient was included for analysis. The likelihood that each isolate was susceptible to a non-β-lactam antimicrobial was then determined and summarized within a combination antibiogram. Results: In total, 179 P. aeruginosa isolates with decreased susceptibilities to one or more β-lactam agents were assessed. Because no appreciable differences in antimicrobial susceptibility profile were observed between hospitals, the isolates were evaluated in aggregate. Susceptibility rates for β-lactam monotherapy ranged from 34% to 75%. Aminoglycosides possessed increased antibacterial activity compared to fluoroquinolones. Tobramycin was the non-β-lactam most likely to expand antimicrobial coverage against β-lactam-non-susceptible P. aeruginosa with activity against 64%, 66%, and 65% of cefepime-, piperacillin-tazobactam-, and meropenem-non-susceptible isolates, respectively (p \u3c 0.001 for all). Conclusions: The results of this study support the use of aminoglycosides over fluoroquinolones for achieving optimal, empiric antimicrobial combination therapy for P. aeruginosa when dual antimicrobial therapy is clinically necessary. Future efforts aimed at optimizing combination therapy for P. aeruginosa should focus on systemic interventions that limit the selection of fluoroquinolones in combination with β-lactams to expand coverage based on local susceptibility rates

Compliant rolling-contact architected materials for shape reconfigurability.

Architected materials can achieve impressive shape-changing capabilities according to how their microarchitecture is engineered. Here we introduce an approach for dramatically advancing such capabilities by utilizing wrapped flexure straps to guide the rolling motions of tightly packed micro-cams that constitute the material's microarchitecture. This approach enables high shape-morphing versatility and extreme ranges of deformation without accruing appreciable increases in strain energy or internal stress. Two-dimensional and three-dimensional macroscale prototypes are demonstrated, and the analytical theory necessary to design the proposed materials is provided and packaged as a software tool. An approach that combines two-photon stereolithography and scanning holographic optical tweezers is demonstrated to enable the fabrication of the proposed materials at their intended microscale

A novel route to a finite center-of-mass momentum pairing state; current driven FFLO state

The previously studied Fulde-Ferrell-Larkin-Ovchinnikov (FFLO) state is stabilized by a magnetic field via the Zeeman coupling in spin-singlet superconductors. Here we suggest a novel route to achieve non-zero center-of-mass momentum pairing states in superconductors with Fermi surface nesting. We investigate two-dimensional superconductors under a uniform external current, which leads to a finite pair-momentum of ${\bf q}_{e}$. We find that an FFLO state with a spontaneous pair-momentum of ${\bf q}_{s}$ is stabilized above a certain critical current which depends on the direction of the external current. A finite ${\bf q}_s$ arises in order to make the total pair-momentum of ${\bf q}_t(={\bf q}_s + {\bf q}_e)$ perpendicular to the nesting vector, which lowers the free energy of the FFLO state, as compared to the superconducting and normal states. We also suggest experimental signatures of the FFLO state.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Testing Modeling Assumptions in the West Africa Ebola Outbreak

The Ebola virus in West Africa has infected almost 30,000 and killed over 11,000 people. Recent models of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have often made assumptions about how the disease spreads, such as uniform transmissibility and homogeneous mixing within a population. In this paper, we test whether these assumptions are necessarily correct, and offer simple solutions that may improve disease model accuracy. First, we use data and models of West African migration to show that EVD does not homogeneously mix, but spreads in a predictable manner. Next, we estimate the initial growth rate of EVD within country administrative divisions and find that it significantly decreases with population density. Finally, we test whether EVD strains have uniform transmissibility through a novel statistical test, and find that certain strains appear more often than expected by chance.Comment: 16 pages, 14 figure

Analysis and comparison of Scalextric, SCX, and Carrera Digital slot car systems: A mechatronic engineering design case study

Digital slot cars operate by transmitting both power and data over a single pair of wires much like DCC-controlled model railways and some home automation systems. In this manuscript we analyse and compare the cars, track, controllers, and electronic data transmission protocols of the three popular digital slot car systems