Modelling the Longitudinal Properties of Financial Ratios of European Firms

The use of financial ratios by analysts to compare the performance of firms from one accounting period to the next is of growing importance with continued European economic integration. Recent studies suggest that the individual component series of financial ratios exhibit nonstationarity which is not eliminated by the ratio transformation. In this paper, w e derive a generalised model that incorporates stochastic and deterministic trends and allows for restricted and unrestricted proportionate growth in the ratio numerator and denominator. When the individual firm series are included in a panel structure with large N and small T, we are unable to reject convincingly a joint hypothesis of nonstationarity, whilst in about one third of the individual firm panels there is no evidence of a unit root. Although the components of financial ratios are correlated variables, our estimates show that any cointegrating effects decay rapidly.financial ratios, nonstationarity, proportionate growth, cointegration, panel methods

Evaluating an online support package delivered within a disability unemployment service: study protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility study

Background Mental health problems such as anxiety and depression are known to be higher in those who are unemployed. Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is a recognised support for people with such problems and can improve the ability of people to get back to work.<p></p> Methods/design Participants with symptoms of low mood will be recruited from the disability employment service, Remploy. Participants will receive either immediate or delayed access to an online CBT-based life skills intervention, the “Living Life” package. The primary end point will be at 3 months when the delayed group will be offered the intervention. This feasibility study will test the trial design and assess recruitment, retention, acceptability and adherence, as well as providing efficacy data.<p></p> Discussion The study will inform the design and sample size for a future full randomised controlled trial (RCT) which will be carried out to determine the effectiveness of the online package in improving mood and employment status.<p></p&gt

Wearable activity technology and action-planning (WATAAP) to promote physical activity in cancer survivors: Randomised controlled trial protocol

Background/Objective: Colorectal and gynecologic cancer survivors are at cardiovascular risk due to comorbidities and sedentary behaviour, warranting a feasible intervention to increase physical activity. The Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) is a promising theoretical frame-work for health behaviour change, and wearable physical activity trackers offer a novel means of self-monitoring physical activity for cancer survivors. Method: Sixty-eight survivors of colorectal and gynecologic cancer will be randomised into 12- week intervention and control groups. Intervention group participants will receive: a Fitbit AltaTM to monitor physical activity, HAPA-based group sessions, booklet, and support phone-call. Participants in the control group will only receive the HAPA-based booklet. Physical activity (using accelerometers), blood pressure, BMI, and HAPA constructs will be assessed at baseline, 12-weeks (post-intervention) and 24-weeks (follow-up). Data analysis will use the Group x Time interaction from a General Linear Mixed Model analysis. Conclusions: Physical activity interventions that are acceptable and have robust theoretical underpinnings show promise for improving the health of cancer survivors

Over 10 million seawater temperature records for the United Kingdom Continental Shelf between 1880 and 2014 from 17 Cefas (United Kingdom government) marine data systems

The datasets described here bring together quality-controlled seawater temperature measurements from over 130 years of departmental government-funded marine science investigations in the UK (United Kingdom). Since before the foundation of a Marine Biological Association fisheries laboratory in 1902 and through subsequent evolutions as the Directorate of Fisheries Research and the current Centre for Environment Fisheries & Aquaculture Science, UK government marine scientists and observers have been collecting seawater temperature data as part of oceanographic, chemical, biological, radiological, and other policy-driven research and observation programmes in UK waters. These datasets start with a few tens of records per year, rise to hundreds from the early 1900s, thousands by 1959, and hundreds of thousands by the 1980s, peaking with  >  1 million for some years from 2000 onwards. The data source systems vary from time series at coastal monitoring stations or offshore platforms (buoys), through repeated research cruises or opportunistic sampling from ferry routes, to temperature extracts from CTD (conductivity, temperature, depth) profiles, oceanographic, fishery and plankton tows, and data collected from recreational scuba divers or electronic devices attached to marine animals. The datasets described have not been included in previous seawater temperature collation exercises (e.g. International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set, Met Office Hadley Centre sea surface temperature data set, the centennial in situ observation-based estimates of sea surface temperatures), although some summary data reside in the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC) archive, the Marine Environment Monitoring and Assessment National (MERMAN) database and the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) data centre. We envisage the data primarily providing a biologically and ecosystem-relevant context for regional assessments of changing hydrological conditions around the British Isles, although cross-matching with satellite-derived data for surface temperatures at specific times and in specific areas is another area in which the data could be of value (see e.g. Smit et al., 2013). Maps are provided indicating geographical coverage, which is generally within and around the UK Continental Shelf area, but occasionally extends north from Labrador and Greenland to east of Svalbard and southward to the Bay of Biscay. Example potential uses of the data are described using plots of data in four selected groups of four ICES rectangles covering areas of particular fisheries interest. The full dataset enables extensive data synthesis, for example in the southern North Sea where issues of spatial and numerical bias from a data source are explored. The full dataset also facilitates the construction of long-term temperature time series and an examination of changes in the phenology (seasonal timing) of ecosystem processes. This is done for a wide geographic area with an exploration of the limitations of data coverage over long periods. Throughout, we highlight and explore potential issues around the simple combination of data from the diverse and disparate sources collated here. The datasets are available on the Cefas Data Hub (https://www.cefas.co.uk/cefas-data-hub/). The referenced data sources are listed in Sect. 5

Does Board Independence Reduce the Cost of Debt?

Using the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and the associated change in listing standards as a natural experiment, we find that while board independence decreases the cost of debt when credit conditions are strong or leverage low, it increases the cost of debt when credit conditions are poor or leverage high. We also document that independent directors set corporate policies that increase firm risk. These results suggest that, acting in the interest of shareholders, independent directors are increasingly costly to bondholders with the intensification of the agency conflict between these two stakeholders

Getting shot of elves: healing, witchcraft and fairies in the Scottish witchcraft trials

This paper re-examines the evidence of the Scottish witchcraft trials for beliefs associated by scholars with "elf-shot." Some supposed evidence for elf-shot is dismissed, but other material illuminates the interplay between illness, healing and fairy-lore in early modern Scotland, and the relationship of these beliefs to witchcraft itself

Prosocial preferences do not explain human cooperation in public-goods games

It has become an accepted paradigm that humans have "prosocial preferences" that lead to higher levels of cooperation than those that would maximize their personal financial gain. However, the existence of prosocial preferences has been inferred post hoc from the results of economic games, rather than with direct experimental tests. Here, we test how behavior in a public-goods game is influenced by knowledge of the consequences of actions for other players. We found that (i) individuals cooperate at similar levels, even when they are not informed that their behavior benefits others; (ii) an increased awareness of how cooperation benefits others leads to a reduction, rather than an increase, in the level of cooperation; and (iii) cooperation can be either lower or higher than expected, depending on experimental design. Overall, these results contradict the suggested role of the prosocial preferences hypothesis and show how the complexity of human behavior can lead to misleading conclusions from controlled laboratory experiments

One-Loop n-Point Gauge Theory Amplitudes, Unitarity and Collinear Limits

We present a technique which utilizes unitarity and collinear limits to construct ansatze for one-loop amplitudes in gauge theory. As an example, we obtain the one-loop contribution to amplitudes for $n$ gluon scattering in $N=4$ supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory with the helicity configuration of the Parke-Taylor tree amplitudes. We prove that our $N=4$ ansatz is correct using general properties of the relevant one-loop $n$-point integrals. We also give the ``splitting amplitudes'' which govern the collinear behavior of one-loop helicity amplitudes in gauge theories.Comment: 52 pages (including figures), minor typographical errors corrected, SLAC-PUB-641

Isolation of Angola-like Marburg virus from Egyptian rousette bats from West Africa.

Marburg virus (MARV) causes sporadic outbreaks of severe Marburg virus disease (MVD). Most MVD outbreaks originated in East Africa and field studies in East Africa, South Africa, Zambia, and Gabon identified the Egyptian rousette bat (ERB; Rousettus aegyptiacus) as a natural reservoir. However, the largest recorded MVD outbreak with the highest case-fatality ratio happened in 2005 in Angola, where direct spillover from bats was not  shown. Here, collaborative studies by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Njala University, University of California, Davis USAID-PREDICT, and the University of Makeni identify MARV circulating in ERBs in Sierra Leone. PCR, antibody and virus isolation data from 1755 bats of 42 species shows active MARV infection in approximately 2.5% of ERBs. Phylogenetic analysis identifies MARVs that are similar to the Angola strain. These results provide evidence of MARV circulation in West Africa and demonstrate the value of pathogen surveillance to identify previously undetected threats