Applying Bayesian model averaging for uncertainty estimation of input data in energy modelling

Background Energy scenarios that are used for policy advice have ecological and social impact on society. Policy measures that are based on modelling exercises may lead to far reaching financial and ecological consequences. The purpose of this study is to raise awareness that energy modelling results are accompanied with uncertainties that should be addressed explicitly. Methods With view to existing approaches of uncertainty assessment in energy economics and climate science, relevant requirements for an uncertainty assessment are defined. An uncertainty assessment should be explicit, independent of the assessor’s expertise, applicable to different models, including subjective quantitative and statistical quantitative aspects, intuitively understandable and be reproducible. Bayesian model averaging for input variables of energy models is discussed as method that satisfies these requirements. A definition of uncertainty based on posterior model probabilities of input variables to energy models is presented. Results The main findings are that (1) expert elicitation as predominant assessment method does not satisfy all requirements, (2) Bayesian model averaging for input variable modelling meets the requirements and allows evaluating a vast amount of potentially relevant influences on input variables and (3) posterior model probabilities of input variable models can be translated in uncertainty associated with the input variable. Conclusions An uncertainty assessment of energy scenarios is relevant if policy measures are (partially) based on modelling exercises. Potential implications of these findings include that energy scenarios could be associated with uncertainty that is presently neither assessed explicitly nor communicated adequately

Balancing the immune response in the brain: IL-10 and its regulation

Background: The inflammatory response is critical to fight insults, such as pathogen invasion or tissue damage, but if not resolved often becomes detrimental to the host. A growing body of evidence places non-resolved inflammation at the core of various pathologies, from cancer to neurodegenerative diseases. It is therefore not surprising that the immune system has evolved several regulatory mechanisms to achieve maximum protection in the absence of pathology. Main body: The production of the anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin (IL)-10 is one of the most important mechanisms evolved by many immune cells to counteract damage driven by excessive inflammation. Innate immune cells of the central nervous system, notably microglia, are no exception and produce IL-10 downstream of pattern recognition receptors activation. However, whereas the molecular mechanisms regulating IL-10 expression by innate and acquired immune cells of the periphery have been extensively addressed, our knowledge on the modulation of IL-10 expression by central nervous cells is much scattered. This review addresses the current understanding on the molecular mechanisms regulating IL-10 expression by innate immune cells of the brain and the implications of IL-10 modulation in neurodegenerative disorders. Conclusion: The regulation of IL-10 production by central nervous cells remains a challenging field. Answering the many remaining outstanding questions will contribute to the design of targeted approaches aiming at controlling deleterious inflammation in the brain.We acknowledge the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) for providing a PhD grant to DLS (SFRH/BD/88081/2012) and a post-doctoral fellowship to SR (SFRH/BPD/72710/2010). DS, AGC and SR were funded by FEDER through the Competitiveness Factors Operational Programme (COMPETE) and National Funds through FCT under the scope of the project POCI-01-0145-FEDER007038; and by the project NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000013, supported by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). The MS lab was financed by Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional (FEDER) funds through the COMPETE 2020—Operacional Programme for Competitiveness and Internationalisation (POCI), Portugal 2020, and by Portuguese funds through FCT in the framework of the project “Institute for Research and Innovation in Health Sciences ” (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007274). MS is a FCT Associate Investigator. The funding body had no role in the design of the study and collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data and in writing the manuscript

Exploring new physics frontiers through numerical relativity

The demand to obtain answers to highly complex problems within strong-field gravity has been met with significant progress in the numerical solution of Einstein's equations - along with some spectacular results - in various setups. We review techniques for solving Einstein's equations in generic spacetimes, focusing on fully nonlinear evolutions but also on how to benchmark those results with perturbative approaches. The results address problems in high-energy physics, holography, mathematical physics, fundamental physics, astrophysics and cosmology

H2S biosynthesis and catabolism: new insights from molecular studies

Hydrogen sulfide (H2S) has profound biological effects within living organisms and is now increasingly being considered alongside other gaseous signalling molecules, such as nitric oxide (NO) and carbon monoxide (CO). Conventional use of pharmacological and molecular approaches has spawned a rapidly growing research field that has identified H2S as playing a functional role in cell-signalling and post-translational modifications. Recently, a number of laboratories have reported the use of siRNA methodologies and genetic mouse models to mimic the loss of function of genes involved in the biosynthesis and degradation of H2S within tissues. Studies utilising these systems are revealing new insights into the biology of H2S within the cardiovascular system, inflammatory disease, and in cell signalling. In light of this work, the current review will describe recent advances in H2S research made possible by the use of molecular approaches and genetic mouse models with perturbed capacities to generate or detoxify physiological levels of H2S gas within tissue

The Hawthorne Effect: a randomised, controlled trial

Background: The 'Hawthorne Effect' may be an important factor affecting the generalisability of clinical research to routine practice, but has been little studied. Hawthorne Effects have been reported in previous clinical trials in dementia but to our knowledge, no attempt has been made to quantify them. Our aim was to compare minimal follow- up to intensive follow-up in participants in a placebo controlled trial of Ginkgo biloba for treating mild-moderate dementia.Methods: Participants in a dementia trial were randomised to intensive follow- up (with comprehensive assessment visits at baseline and two, four and six months post randomisation) or minimal follow-up (with an abbreviated assessment at baseline and a full assessment at six months). Our primary outcomes were cognitive functioning (ADAS-Cog) and participant and carer-rated quality of life (QOL-AD).Results: We recruited 176 participants, mainly through general practices. The main analysis was based on Intention to treat (ITT), with available data. In the ANCOVA model with baseline score as a co- variate, follow-up group had a significant effect on outcome at six months on the ADAS-Cog score (n = 140; mean difference = -2.018; 95% Cl -3.914, -0.121; p = 0.037 favouring the intensive follow-up group), and on participant- rated quality of life score (n = 142; mean difference = -1.382; 95% Cl -2.642, -0.122; p = 0.032 favouring minimal follow-up group). There was no significant difference on carer quality of life.Conclusion: We found that more intensive follow-up of individuals in a placebo-controlled clinical trial of Ginkgo biloba for treating mild-moderate dementia resulted in a better outcome than minimal follow-up, as measured by their cognitive functioning

Toward estimating the impact of changes in immigrants' insurance eligibility on hospital expenditures for uncompensated care

BACKGROUND: The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996 gave states the option to withdraw Medicaid coverage of nonemergency care from most legal immigrants. Our goal was to assess the effect of PRWORA on hospital uncompensated care in the United States. METHODS: We collected the following state-level data for the period from 1994 through 1999: foreign-born, noncitizen population and health uninsurance rates (US Census Current Population Survey); percentage of teaching hospitals (American Hospital Association Annual Survey of Hospitals); and each state's decision whether to implement the PRWORA Medicaid bar for legal permanent residents or to continue offering nonemergency Medicaid coverage using state-only funds (Urban Institute). We modeled uncompensated care expenditures by state (also from the Annual Survey of Hospitals) in both univariate and multivariable regression analyses. RESULTS: When measured at the state level, there was no significant relationship between uncompensated care expenditures and states' percentage of noncitizen immigrants. Uninsurance rates were the only significant factor in predicting uncompensated hospital care expenditures by state. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing the number of uninsured patients would most surely reduce hospital expenditures for uncompensated care. However, data limitations hampered our efforts to obtain a monetary estimate of hospitals' financial losses due specifically to the immigrant eligibility changes in PRWORA. Quantifying the impact of these provisions on hospitals will require better data sources

Heterozygosity for Pten Promotes Tumorigenesis in a Mouse Model of Medulloblastoma

BACKGROUND: Recent publications have described an important role for cross talk between PI-3 kinase and sonic hedgehog signaling pathways in the pathogenesis of medulloblastoma. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We crossed mice with constitutive activation of Smoothened, SmoA1, with Pten deficient mice. Both constitutive and conditional Pten deficiency doubled the incidence of mice with symptoms of medulloblastoma and resulted in decreased survival. Analysis revealed a clear separation of gene signatures, with up-regulation of genes in the PI-3 kinase signaling pathway, including downstream activation of angiogenesis in SmoA1+/-; Pten +/- medulloblastomas. Western blotting and immunohistochemistry confirmed reduced or absent Pten, Akt activation, and increased angiogenesis in Pten deficient tumors. Down-regulated genes included genes in the sonic hedgehog pathway and tumor suppressor genes. SmoA1+/-; Pten +/+ medulloblastomas appeared classic in histology with increased proliferation and diffuse staining for apoptosis. In contrast, Pten deficient tumors exhibited extensive nodularity with neuronal differentiation separated by focal areas of intense staining for proliferation and virtually absent apoptosis. Examination of human medulloblastomas revealed low to absent PTEN expression in over half of the tumors. Kaplan-Meier analysis confirmed worse overall survival in patients whose tumor exhibited low to absent PTEN expression. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This suggests that PTEN expression is a marker of favorable prognosis and mouse models with activation of PI-3 kinase pathways may be important tools for preclinical evaluation of promising agents for the treatment of medulloblastoma

Species diversity of sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) during different seasons and in different environments in the district of Taquaruçú, state of Tocantins, Brazil

Phlebotomine sandflies are the vectors for the protozoan parasites that cause leishmaniasis. The present study investigated the species composition of sandfly fauna in the rural district of Taquaruçú, municipality of Palmas, state of Tocantins, Brazil and compared the diversity of species among intradomicile, peridomicile and forest environments during the dry and rainy seasons. Sandflies were collected using CDC light traps over the course of three months during the dry and rainy seasons. A total of 767 specimens were captured, belonging to different 32 species. The most abundant species were Micropygomyia goiana (Martins, Falcão & Silva), Sciopemyia sordellii (Shannon & Del Ponte), Evandromyia carmelinoi (Ryan Fraiha, Lainson & Shaw), Evandromyia termitophila (Martins, Falcão & Silva), Nyssomyia whitmani (Antunes & Coutinho) and Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva). The highest species diversity (30) and the greatest percentage of specimens (78.3%) were obtained during the rainy season. During the dry season, the species richness and abundance were greater in domestic environments. However, during the rainy season, the forest displayed the highest species richness and the domestic environment exhibited the greatest species abundance. Several important vector species are reported in this study

Measuring the stability of fundamental constants with a network of clocks

The detection of variations of fundamental constants of the Standard Model would provide us with compelling evidence of new physics, and could lift the veil on the nature of dark matter and dark energy. In this work, we discuss how a network of atomic and molecular clocks can be used to look for such variations with unprecedented sensitivity over a wide range of time scales. This is precisely the goal of the recently launched QSNET project: A network of clocks for measuring the stability of fundamental constants. QSNET will include state-of-the-art atomic clocks, but will also develop next-generation molecular and highly charged ion clocks with enhanced sensitivity to variations of fundamental constants. We describe the technological and scientific aims of QSNET and evaluate its expected performance. We show that in the range of parameters probed by QSNET, either we will discover new physics, or we will impose new constraints on violations of fundamental symmetries and a range of theories beyond the Standard Model, including dark matter and dark energy models