Silvopastoral agroforestry - an option to support sustainable grassland intensification

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Adoption of agroforestry options in land use policy measures in northern and southern Ireland

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New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data

Using euro-area data, we re-examine the empirical success of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPCs). The nature of our re-evaluation relies on the actual empirical underpinnings of such estimates: we find existing estimates un-robust and – given that key parameters are generally calibrated rather than estimated – potentially at odds with the data. We re-estimate with a wellspecified optimizing supply-side (which attempts to treat non-stationarity in factor income shares and mark-ups) and this allows us to derive estimates of technology parameters and marginal costs. Our resulting estimates of the euro-area NKPCs are robust, provide reasonable estimates for fixed-price durations and discount rates and embody plausible dynamic properties. Our method for identifying and estimating New Keynesian Phillips curves has general applicability to a wide set of countries and might also be used in identifying sectoral NKPCs. JEL Classification: E31Euro-Area, Inflation Dynamics, Phillips Curves, Supply-Side

Technology, utilization and inflation: what drives the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?

We argue that the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve literature has failed to deliver a convincing measure of “fundamental inflation”. We start from a careful modeling of optimal price setting allowing for non-unitary factor substitution, non-neutral technical change and timevarying factor utilization rates. This ensures the resulting real marginal cost measures match volatility reductions and level changes witnessed in many US time series. The cost measure comprises conventional counter-cyclical cost elements plus pro-cyclical (and co-varying) utilization rates. Although pro-cyclical elements dominate, real marginal costs are becoming less cyclical over time. Incorporating this richer driving variable produces more plausible price-stickiness estimates than otherwise and suggests a more balanced weight of backward and forward-looking inflation expectations than commonly found. Our results challenge existing views of inflation determinants and have important implications for modeling inflation in New-Keynesian models. JEL Classification: E20, E30cyclicality, inflation, intensive labor, Labor Share, overtime premia, production function, real marginal costs, utilization

The monetary transmission mechanism at the euro-area level: issues and results using structural macroeconomic models

This paper addresses some of the issues faced by macroeconomic model builders in analysing the monetary transmission mechanism. These include the sensitivity of the policy simulation results to changes in the monetary and fiscal policy rule and the introduction of forward-looking behaviour in the model. To illustrate the importance of these issues the paper reports the results of variant monetary policy simulations at the euro-area level using the AWM and NiGEM models JEL Classification: C50, C52, E5euro area, macro models, monetary transmission mechanism

Forecasting inflation with thick models and neural networks

This paper applies linear and neural network-based “thick” models for forecasting inflation based on Phillips–curve formulations in the USA, Japan and the euro area. Thick models represent “trimmed mean” forecasts from several neural network models. They outperform the best performing linear models for “real-time” and “bootstrap” forecasts for service indices for the euro area, and do well, sometimes better, for the more general consumer and producer price indices across a variety of countries. JEL Classification: C12, E31bootstrap, Neural Networks, Phillips Curves, real-time forecasting, Thick Models

Mentoring, teaching and professional transformation

No abstract available

Unemployment, Hysterisis and Transition

We quantify the degree of persistence in the unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. In doing so, we will also characterize the dynamic behavior of unemployment in the CEECs during the past decade. In part of the paper, we will work with the concept of linear ÒHysteresisÓ as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment as in most empirical research on this area. Given that this is potentially a rather narrow definition, we will also take into account the existence of structural breaks and non-linear dynamics in unemployment in order to allow for a richer set of dynamics. Finally, we examine whether CEECsÕ unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria, that is, if it remains locked into a new level whenever a structural change occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria.unemployment, hysterisis, unit root, transition

Fate and impact of organics in an immersed membrane bioreactor applied to brine denitrification and ion exchange regeneration

The application of membrane bioreactors (MBRs) to brine denitrification for ion exchange regeneration has been studied. The developed culture was capable of complete brine denitrification at 50 gNaCl.l−1. Denitrification reduced to c.60% and c.70% when salinity was respectively increased to 75 and 100 g.l−1, presumed to be due to reduced growth rate and the low imposed solids retention time (10 days). Polysaccharide secretion was not induced by stressed cells following salt shocking, implying that cell lysis did not occur. Fouling propensity, monitored by critical flux, was steady at 12–15 l.m−2.h−1 during salinity shocking and after brine recirculation, indicating that the system was stable following perturbation. Low molecular weight polysaccharide physically adsorbed onto the nitrate selective anion exchange resin during regeneration reducing exchange capacity by c.6.5% when operating up to complete exhaustion. However, based on a breakthrough threshold of 10 mgNO3−-N.l−1 the exchange capacity was comparative to that determined when using freshly produced brine for regeneration. It was concluded that a denitrification MBR was an appropriate technology for IEX spent brine reco