Confidence assessment in the teaching of basic science

A scheme is described for including information about confidence in the computer‐based assessment of students. After each answer, students declare a confidence level of 1, 2, or 3. If the answer is correct, then this is the mark awarded. If not, marks of 0, ‐2, or ‐6 are awarded Students do well on this scheme if they can discriminate between when they are sure of correct answers and when they are partly guessing. In self‐assessment, students are trained to reflect on their reasoning, and to develop the skills of correct confidence judgement. The task of writing tests is simplified, since it becomes less important to ask complex questions. Simple direct questions discriminate better between students than they do with ordinary marking. Good students answer correctly with high confidence, while weak students moderate their confidence level if they know they are uncertain, or else lose heavily when they make mistakes. Preliminary data are presented from self‐assessment trials amongst medical students

Localist representation can improve efficiency for detection and counting

Almost all representations have both distributed and localist aspects, depending upon what properties of the data are being considered. With noisy data, features represented in a localist way can be detected very efficiently, and in binary representations they can be counted more efficiently than those represented in a distributed way. Brains operate in noisy environments, so the localist representation of behaviourally important events is advantageous, and fits what has been found experimentally. Distributed representations require more neurons to perform as efficiently, but they do have greater versatility

Remote sensing of bubble clouds in seawater

We report on the influence of submerged bubble clouds on the remote sensing properties of water. We show that the optical effect of bubbles on radiative transfer and on the estimate of the ocean color is significant. We present a global map of the volume fraction of air in water derived from daily wind speed data. This map, together with the parameterization of the microphysical properties, shows the possible significance of bubble clouds on the albedo of incoming solar energyComment: 17 pages, 6 Postscript figures, see also http://atol.ucsd.edu/~pflatau publications for related papers. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc. in press 200

Association of the CCR5 gene with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

The CC chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5) has been shown to be important in the recruitment of T-helper cells to the synovium, where they accumulate, drive the inflammatory process and the consequent synovitis and joint destruction. A 32 base-pair insertion/deletion variant (CCR5Δ32) within the gene leads to a frame shift and a nonfunctional receptor. CCR5Δ32 has been investigated for its association with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), with conflicting results. The aim of this study was to investigate whether CCR5Δ32 is associated with JIA in an UK population. CCR5Δ32 was genotyped in JIA cases (n=1054) and healthy controls (n=3129) and genotype and allele frequencies were compared. A meta-analysis of our study combined with previously published studies was performed. CCR5Δ32 was significantly associated with protection from developing JIA, in this UK data set (P(trend)=0.006, odds ratio (OR) 0.79 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.66-0.94). The meta-analysis of all published case-control association studies confirmed the protective association with JIA (P=0.001 OR 0.82 95% CI: 0.73-0.93). CCR5Δ32 is a functional variant determining the number of receptors on the surface of T cells, and it is hypothesized that the level of CCR5 expression could influence the migration of proinflammatory T cells into the synovium and thus susceptibility to JIA

The effectiveness of a multidisciplinary foot care program for children and adolescents with juvenile idiopathic arthritis: an exploratory trial

Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness of multidisciplinary foot-care, and to evaluate the methodological considerations of a trial of multidisciplinary care in juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Design: Exploratory randomised controlled trial. Subjects/Patients: Children/adolescents with juvenile idiopathic arthritis and inflammatory joint disease affecting the foot/ankle. Methods: Standard medical care was compared with a 12 month program of multidisciplinary foot-care informed by musculoskeletal ultrasound. This program was centred on strict disease control through rigorous examination and interventions delivered by a team comprised of a paediatric rheumatologist, podiatrist, physiotherapist and musculoskeletal ultrasonographer. Patients were assessed on foot impairment and disability scores using the Juvenile Arthritis Foot Disability Index. Results: Forty-four participants, aged 3-17 years were randomly assigned to receive the experimental (n = 21) or usual care (n = 23) interventions. There was an overall improvement in levels of foot related impairments in both groups over 12 months. Between-group differences in change scores for the Juvenile Arthritis Foot Disability Index were not statistically significant at 6 or 12 month follow-ups. Conclusion: The integrated multidisciplinary foot care interventions described in this trial were safe, but did not improve foot impairment levels relative to usual care. This trial identified several methodological challenges including recruitment/retention, difficulties with outcome tools and potential confounders.</p

Association of the AFF3 gene and IL2/IL21 gene region with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Recent genetic studies have led to identification of numerous loci that are associated with susceptibility to autoimmune diseases. The strategy of using information from these studies has facilitated the identification of novel juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) susceptibility loci, specifically, PTPN22 and IL2RA. Several novel autoimmune susceptibility loci have recently been identified, and we hypothesise that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within these genes may also be JIA susceptibility loci. Five SNPs within the genes AFF3, IL2/IL21, IL7R, CTLA4 and CD226, previously associated with multiple autoimmune diseases were genotyped, in a large data set of Caucasian JIA patients and controls, and tested for association with JIA. We identified two susceptibility loci for JIA, AFF3 and the IL2/IL21 region and additional weak evidence supporting an association with the CTLA4 and IL7R genes, which warrant further investigation. All results require validation in independent JIA data sets. Further characterisation of the specific causal variants will be required before functional studies can be performed

Automated processing of oceanic bubble images for measuring bubble size distributions underneath breaking waves

Accurate in situ measurements of oceanic bubble size distributions beneath breaking waves are needed for a better understanding of air–sea gas transfer and aerosol production processes. To achieve this goal, a novel high-resolution optical instrument for imaging oceanic bubbles was designed and built in 2013 for the High Wind Gas Exchange Study (HiWinGS) campaign in the North Atlantic Ocean. The instrument is able to operate autonomously and can continuously capture high-resolution images at 15 frames per second over an 8-h deployment. The large number of images means that it is essential to use an automated processing algorithm to process these images. This paper describes an automated algorithm for processing oceanic images based on a robust feature extraction technique. The main advantages of this robust algorithm are it is significantly less sensitive to the noise and insusceptible to the background changes in illumination, can extract circular bubbles as small as one pixel (approximately 20 μm) in radius accurately, has low computing time (approximately 5 seconds per image), and is simple to implement. The algorithm was successfully used to analyze a large number of images (850 000 images) from deployment in the North Atlantic Ocean as part of the HiWinGS campaign in 2013

Annual Progress Report, Study of Dynamic Rigidity of Marine Sediments

The report is divided into two tasks with each task summary being prepared by the principal investigators of that task. Task 1 includes a study of the dynamic rigidity, acoustic, and other engineering properties of marine sediments. Task 2 covers a study of upper ocean turbulence as related to acoustic measurements. (Author)http://archive.org/details/studyofdynamicri00and

Confidence and competence with mathematical procedures

Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N = 345) in five different secondary schools in England responded to the use of a CA instrument designed to incentivise the eliciting of truthful confidence ratings in the topic of directed (positive and negative) numbers. Pupils readily understood the negative marking aspect of the CA process and their facility correlated with their mean confidence with r = .546, N = 336, p < .001, indicating that pupils were generally well calibrated. Pupils’ comments indicated that the vast majority were positive about the CA approach, despite its dramatic differences from more usual assessment practices in UK schools. Some pupils felt that CA promoted deeper thinking, increased their confidence and had a potential role to play in classroom formative assessment