Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple, global energy- economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to mid-century. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary for driving widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient for bringing low-carbon vehicles to mass market, though it can certainly play a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonised energy supply

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets

Several major economies rely heavily on fossil-fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels.1-4 This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil-fuel ventures1,2, which could become stranded as a result. Here we use an integrated global economy environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether new climate policies are adopted or not; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2°C target are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production (‘sell-out’) despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of $1-4tn; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (e.g. net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (e.g. Russia, the US or Canada, which could see their fossil-fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP.The authors acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (JFM, fellowship no. EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (JFM, PS, JV, EPSRC grant no EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant no ES/N013174/1), NERC (NRE, PH, HP, grant no NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (PS), the Philomathia Foundation (JV), the Cambridge Humanities Research Grants Scheme (JV), and Horizon 2020 (HP, JFM; Sim4Nexus project)

Autism diagnosis differentiates neurophysiological responses to faces in adults with tuberous sclerosis complex

- Background: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a common and highly heritable neurodevelopmental disorder that is likely to be the outcome of complex aetiological mechanisms. One strategy to provide insight is to study ASD within tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC), a rare disorder with a high incidence of ASD, but for which the genetic cause is determined. Individuals with ASD consistently demonstrate face processing impairments, but these have not been examined in adults with TSC using event-related potentials (ERPs) that are able to capture distinct temporal stages of processing. - Methods: For adults with TSC (n = 14), 6 of which had a diagnosis of ASD, and control adults (n = 13) passively viewed upright and inverted human faces with direct or averted gaze, with concurrent EEG recording. Amplitude and latency of the P1 and N170 ERPs were measured. - Results: Individuals with TSC + ASD exhibited longer N170 latencies to faces compared to typical adults. Typical adults and adults with TSC-only exhibited longer N170 latency to inverted versus upright faces, whereas individuals with TSC + ASD did not show latency differences according to face orientation. In addition, individuals with TSC + ASD showed increased N170 latency to averted compared to direct gaze, which was not demonstrated in typical adults. A reduced lateralization was shown for the TSC + ASD groups on P1 and N170 amplitude. - Conclusions: The findings suggest that individuals with TSC + ASD may have similar electrophysiological abnormalities to idiopathic ASD and are suggestive of developmental delay. Identifying brain-based markers of ASD that are similar in TSC and idiopathic cases is likely to help elucidate the risk pathways to ASD

ACE2-angiotensin-(1-7)-Mas axis in renal ischaemia/reperfusion injury in rats

AngII (angiotensin II), ACE (angiotensin I-converting enzyme) and the AT(1) receptor (AngII type I receptor) are associated with the inflammatory process and microvascular dysfunction of AKI (acute kidney injury) induced by renal I/R (ischaemia/reperfusion). However, Ang-(1-7) [angiotensin-(1-7)], ACE2 (angiotensin I-converting enzyme 2) and the Mas receptor also play a role in renal disease models. Therefore, in the present study, we have examined the renal profile of Ang-(1-7), ACE2 and the Mas receptor in renal I/R and compared them with that of AngII, ACE and the AT(1) receptor. Male Wistar rats were submitted to left nephrectomy and ischaemia (45 min) followed by reperfusion (2 or 4 h) in the right kidney. At 4 h of reperfusion, renal AngII was increased (P < 0.01) and renal Ang-(1-7) was decreased substantially (P < 0.05), although plasma levels of both angiotensins were unchanged. in addition, renal I/R decreased the renal mRNA expression of renin (P < 0.05), AT(1) receptors (P < 0.001) and ACE2 (P < 0.05). At 2 and 4 h of reperfusion, renal ACE activity was reduced (P < 0.05). On the other hand, renal expression of the Mas receptor was greatly increased at 4 h of reperfusion (P < 0.01), which was confirmed by immunohistochemical and Western blot analysis. in conclusion, increased renal expression of the Mas receptor associated with changes in the RAS (renin-angiotensin-system)-related peptidases support an important role for the ACE2 Ang-(1-7) Mas axis in AKI.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG)Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Inst Biol Sci, Dept Physiol & Biophys, BR-31270901 Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Dept Biophys, BR-04044020 São Paulo, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Dept Pathol, BR-31270901 Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Dept Microbiol, BR-31270901 Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Clin Pathol Unit COLTEC, BR-31270901 Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Dept Biochem, Inst Biol Sci, BR-31270901 Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Dept Pediat, Fac Med, BR-31270901 Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Dept Biophys, BR-04044020 São Paulo, SP, BrazilCAPES: PRDEX2009CNPq: 8701480/1997-4FAPEMIG: CBS 2044/96Web of Scienc

Changes in plant communities over three decades on two disturbed bogs in southeastern Quebec.

Abstract Questions: Have the natural plant communities of two mined bogs experienced changes in composition and richness over a three-decade period, and are these changes associated with anthropogenic disturbances? Location: Bas-Saint-Laurent region, southeastern Que´bec, Canada. Methods: We monitored three decades of floristic changes in two disturbed bogs by revisiting 57 plots in 1998, which were previously sampled in 1965 and 1966. Changes in species richness and composition were evaluated using Wilcoxon signed rank tests, principal component analysis and partial redundancy analyses (pRDA). We also used pRDA and an indicator species analysis to determine which species had undergone the greatest changes over time. Variation partitioning was used to evaluate the relative influence of human disturbance in compositional change. Results: The main changes in the vegetation of the two bogs were 1) a decrease of overall species diversity, 2) an increase in the percent cover of trees and of species tolerant of shade or drought, and 3) a decrease in the cover of heliophilous species. Picea mariana, Sphagnum fuscum and Pleurozium schreberi increased in percent cover while Chamaedaphne calyculata and Sphagnum rubellum decreased in percent cover. Variation partitioning suggested that human activities had a significant impact on vegetation composition. Conclusion: The results indicated that substantial changes occurred in the vegetation of the natural fragments of these severely disturbed bogs. Although human activities were partially responsible for the changes, our study suggested that the drying of the peat surface due to drought during the 1960s and 1980s may have contributed to the vegetation changes

Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement aims to address the gap between existing climate policies and policies consistent with ‘holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2C’. The feasibility of meeting the target has been questioned both in terms of the possible requirement for negative emissions, and ongoing debate on the sensitivity of the climate-carbon cycle system. Using a sequence of ensembles of a fully dynamic three-dimensional climate-carbon cycle model, forced by emissions from an integrated assessment model of regional-level climate policy, economy, and technological transformation, we show that a reasonable interpretation of the Paris Agreement is still technically achievable. Specifically, limiting peak (decadal) warming to less than 1.7°C, or end-century warming to less than 1.54°C, occurs in 50% of our simulations in a policy scenario without net negative emissions or excessive stringency in any policy domain. We evaluate two mitigation scenarios, with 200 GTC and 307 GTC post-2017 emissions, quantifying spatio-temporal variability of warming, precipitation, ocean acidification and marine productivity. Under rapid decarbonisation decadal variability dominates the mean response in critical regions, with significant implications for decision making, demanding impact methodologies that address non-linear spatio-temporal responses. Ignoring carbon-cycle feedback uncertainties (explaining 47% of peak warming uncertainty) becomes unreasonable under strong mitigation conditions.We acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (to J.-F.M., fellowship number EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (to J.-F.M., P.S. and J.E.V., EPSRC grant number EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant number ES/N013174/1), NERC (to N.R.E., P.H. and H.P., grant number NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (to P.S.), the Philomathia Foundation (to J.E.V.) and Horizon 2020 (to H.E.P. and J.-F.M., the Sim4Nexus project)

Exploring the possibility space: taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have emerged as key tools for building and assessing long term climate mitigation scenarios. Due to their central role in the recent IPCC assessments, and international climate policy analyses more generally, and the high uncertainties related to future projections, IAMs have been critically assessed by scholars from different fields receiving various critiques ranging from adequacy of their methods to how their results are used and communicated. Although IAMs are conceptually diverse and evolved in very different directions, they tend to be criticised under the umbrella of 'IAMs'. Here we first briefly summarise the IAM landscape and how models differ from each other. We then proceed to discuss six prominent critiques emerging from the recent literature, reflect and respond to them in the light of IAM diversity and ongoing work and suggest ways forward. The six critiques relate to (a) representation of heterogeneous actors in the models, (b) modelling of technology diffusion and dynamics, (c) representation of capital markets, (d) energy-economy feedbacks, (e) policy scenarios, and (f) interpretation and use of model results

System complexity and policy integration challenges: The Brazilian Energy- Water-Food Nexus

The Energy-Water-Food Nexus is one of the most complex sustainability challenges faced by the world. This is particularly true in Brazil, where insufficiently understood interactions within the Nexus are contributing to large-scale deforestation and land-use change, water and energy scarcity, and increased vulnerability to climate change. The reason is a combination of global environmental change and global economic change, putting unprecedented pressures on the Brazilian environment and ecosystems. In this paper, we identify and discuss the main Nexus challenges faced by Brazil across sectors (e.g. energy, agriculture, water) and scales (e.g. federal, state, municipal). We use four case studies to explore all nodes of the Nexus. For each, we analyse data from economic and biophysical modelling sources in combination with an overview of the legislative and policy landscape, in order to identify governance shortcomings in the context of growing challenges. We analyse the complex interdependence of developments at the global and local (Brazilian) levels, highlighting the impact of global environmental and economic change on Brazil and, conversely, that of developments in Brazil for other countries and the world. We conclude that there is a need to adjust the scientific approach to these challenges as an enabling condition for stronger science-policy bridges for sustainability policy-making. © 2019 The Author(s

Environmental and health impacts of atmospheric CO₂ removal by enhanced rock weathering depend on nations’ energy mix

Enhanced Rock Weathering is a proposed Carbon Dioxide Removal technology involving the application of crushed silicate rocks, such as basalt, to agricultural soils with potential co-benefits for crops and soils, and mitigation of ocean acidification. Here we address the requirement of diverse stakeholders for informative studies quantifying possible environmental and health risks of Enhanced Rock Weathering. Using life-cycle assessment modelling of potential supply chain impacts for twelve nations undertaking Enhanced Rock Weathering deployment to deliver up to net 2 Gt CO2 yr−1 CDR, we find that rock grinding rather than mining exerts the dominant influence on environmental impacts. This finding holds under both a business-as-usual and clean energy mix scenario to 2050 but transitioning to undertaking Enhanced Rock Weathering in the future with low carbon energy systems improves the sustainability of the Enhanced Rock Weathering supply chain. We find that Enhanced Rock Weathering is competitive with other large-scale Carbon Dioxide Removal strategies in terms of energy and water demands