Modelle und Strategien zur Einführung des Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) – Ein Literaturüberblick

Deutsch: Im Rahmen der seit einigen Jahren verstärkten Aktivitäten von Wissenschaft und Wirtschaft im Bereich der digital vernetzten Produktion kann eine Auseinandersetzung mit den Erfahrungen und Erkenntnissen von Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) hilfreich sein. Hierfür werden in diesem Beitrag 37 CIM-Modelle kurz beschrieben, weiterführende Literaturhinweise angegeben und die Visualisierungen der Grundstrukturen abgebildet. Darüber hinaus werden Literaturhinweise zu einigen Planungs- und Umsetzungsstrategien im Kontext CIM gegeben sowie der Stand verfügbarer CIM-Reifegradmodelle dargestellt. English: Within the framework of the activities of science and business in the area of digitally networked production, which has been intensified for a number of years, an examination of the experiences and knowledge of Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) can be helpful. For this purpose, 37 CIM models are briefly described in this article, additional literature references are given and the visualisations of the basic structures are depicted. In addition, there are references to some planning and implementation strategies in the CIM context, as well as the status of available CIM maturity models

Born Weak, Growing Strong: Anti-Government Protests as a Signal of Rebel Strength in the Context of Civil Wars

All rebel organizations start weak, but how do they grow and achieve favorable conflict outcomes? We present a theoretical model that allows for rebel organizations to gain support beyond their "core" and build their bargaining power during fighting. We highlight that rebel organizations need to win over crucial parts of society to generate the necessary support that allows them to attain favorable civil conflict outcomes. We find empirical support for the argument that low-income individuals who initially fight the government (rebel organizations) have to convince middle-class individuals to turn out against the government to gain government concessions. Empirically, we demonstrate that government concessions in the form of peace agreements and the onset of negotiations become more likely when protest occurs in the context of civil conflicts

Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas

Missing observations are pervasive throughout empirical research, especially in the social sciences. Despite multiple approaches to dealing adequately with missing data, many scholars still fail to address this vital issue. In this paper, we present a simple-to-use method for generating multiple imputations using a Gaussian copula. The Gaussian copula for multiple imputation (Hoff, 2007) allows scholars to attain estimation results that have good coverage and small bias. The use of copulas to model the dependence among variables will enable researchers to construct valid joint distributions of the data, even without knowledge of the actual underlying marginal distributions. Multiple imputations are then generated by drawing observations from the resulting posterior joint distribution and replacing the missing values. Using simulated and observational data from published social science research, we compare imputation via Gaussian copulas with two other widely used imputation methods: MICE and Amelia II. Our results suggest that the Gaussian copula approach has a slightly smaller bias, higher coverage rates, and narrower confidence intervals compared to the other methods. This is especially true when the variables with missing data are not normally distributed. These results, combined with theoretical guarantees and ease-of-use suggest that the approach examined provides an attractive alternative for applied researchers undertaking multiple imputations

Of the Necessity of a Censorship of the Press, 1808

2 pages, correspondenceMetternich argues to Count Stadion that, in order to effectively thwart revolutionary activity, the government must censor the press (1808)

Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion

While some borders are real firewalls against conflicts, others appear like tinder just waiting for the smallest spark. Only recently has research focused on the transnational perspective of conflict and current research has focused mostly on isolated aspects of this phenomenon. In this article, we provide a unified framework for conflict contagion that takes into account receiver, sender, dyad, and network effects. This is a novel perspective on conflict contagion, and our empirical results suggest that distinguishing between sender and receiver effects allows for a better understanding of spillover effects. We provide insights that especially excluded ethnic groups impact the risk of countries sending and receiving conflicts from its neighbors

A guide to develop competency-oriented Lean Learning Factories systematically

In the last decade, various lean learning factories were established in industry and academia around the globe. They are used for experience-based training, education, and practice-oriented research. Learning factories provide a reality-conform production environment as a learning environment. Processes and technologies of the learning factory are based on real industrial sites. Learning factories doesn't only contain single workplaces or machines, but changeable multilink value added chains. Trainees can test and discover lean approaches in this environment and experience the holistic range of technological, organizational, and social issues linked to the approaches. The main goal of learning factories is an effective competency development, i.e. the development of the participants’ ability (including motivational and emotional aspects) to master complex, unfamiliar situations. In order to reach this goal a systematic approach for the competency-oriented design of learning factory courses and systems is needed. Such a competency-oriented approach for the development of lean learning factories is presented, integrating the conceptual design levels ‘learning factory’, ‘teaching module’, and ‘learning situation’. This approach addresses issues of intuitively designed learning factories and therefore enables an effective development of intended competencies. As a result lean learning factories including teaching modules and learning situations meeting the requirements of industry can be designed with a reduced effort and an increased success in the transfer to real problem situations. Among others, a case study of designing a learning module in the environment of the process learning factory CiP in the field of "Lean Quality" is presented in detail

Splitting It Up: The spduration Split-Population Duration Regression Package for Time-Varying Covariates

We present an implementation of split-population duration regression in the spduration (Beger et al., 2017) package for R that allows for time-varying covariates. The statistical model accounts for units that are immune to a certain outcome and are not part of the duration process the researcher is primarily interested in. We provide insights for when immune units exist, that can significantly increase the predictive performance compared to standard duration models. The package includes estimation and several post-estimation methods for split-populationWeibull and log-logistic models. We provide an empirical application to data on military coups

Introduction: Forecasting in peace research

Prediction and forecasting have now fully reached peace and conflict research. We define forecasting as predictions about unrealized outcomes given model estimates from realized data, and predictions more generally as the assignment of probability distributions to realized or unrealized outcomes. Increasingly, scholars present within- and out-of-sample prediction results in their publications and sometimes even forecasts for unrealized, future outcomes. The articles in this special issue demonstrate the ability of current approaches to forecast events of interest and contributes to the formulation of best practices for forecasting within peace research. We highlight the role of forecasting for theory evaluation and as a bridge between academics and policymakers, summarize the contributions in the special issue, and provide some thoughts on how research on forecasting in peace research should proceed. We suggest some best practices, noting the importance of theory development, interpretability of models, replicability of results, and data collection

Continuous flow chemistry: a discovery tool for new chemical reactivity patterns

Continuous flow chemistry as a process intensification tool is well known. However, its ability to enable chemists to perform reactions which are not possible in batch is less well studied or understood. Here we present an example, where a new reactivity pattern and extended reaction scope has been achieved by transferring a reaction from batch mode to flow. This new reactivity can be explained by suppressing back mixing and precise control of temperature in a flow reactor set up.EPSRC/EP/F069685/1EPSRC/ EP/F069685/1Fonds der Chemischen Industri

Antigovernment networks in civil conflicts : how network structures affect conflictual behavior

In this article, we combine a game-theoretic treatment of public goods provision in networks with a statistical network analysis to show that fragmented opposition network structures lead to an increase in conflictual actions. Current literature concentrates on the dyadic relationship between the government and potential challengers. We shift the focus toward exploring how network structures affect the strategic behavior of political actors. We derive and examine testable hypotheses and use latent space analysis to infer actors’ positions vis-à-vis each other in the network. Network structure is examined and used to test our hypotheses with data on conflicts in Thailand from 2001 to 2010. We show the influential role of network structure in generating conflictual behavior