Wave propagation in the Portuguese Nearshore, with application to wave energy resource assessment

Trabalho de projecto de mestrado em Ciências Geofísicas (Oceanografia), apresentado à Universidade de Lisboa, através da Faculdade de Ciências, 2009SWAN wave model (Simulating Waves Nearshore, TU Delft) has been validated against in situ observations for two months: October and June (wave climate) analyzing salient wave parameters (Hs, Te, θ and Energy Flux (P) ) for the Portuguese Pilot Zone (PZ). The model slightly over predicts Hs, while Te is underestimated. Energy Flux (P) also shows mis estimation. θ is well predicted. Mis estimation is certainly due to improper boundary conditions (WAM 2D spectra). Extreme (stormy) observed sea states, typical for winter, are mis predicted by wave model; milder condition, typical in summer, are better predicted but still some important differences are observable

A non-parametric model-based approach to uncertainty and risk analysis of macroeconomic forecast

It has increasingly become standard practice to supplement point macroeconomic forecasts with an appraisal of the degree of uncertainty and the prevailing direction of risks. Several alternative approaches have been proposed in the literature to compute the probability distribution of macroeconomic forecasts; all of them rely on combining the predictive density of model-based forecasts with subjective judgment about the direction and intensity of prevailing risks. We propose a non-parametric, model-based simulation approach, which does not require specific assumptions to be made regarding the probability distribution of the sources of risk. The probability distribution of macroeconomic forecasts is computed as the result of model-based stochastic simulations which rely on re-sampling from the historical distribution of risk factors and are designed to deliver the desired degree of skewness. By contrast, other approaches typically make a specific, parametric assumption about the distribution of risk factors. The approach is illustrated using the Bank of Italy’s Quarterly Macroeconometric Model. The results suggest that the distribution of macroeconomic forecasts quickly tends to become symmetric, even if all risk factors are assumed to be asymmetrically distributed.macroeconomic forecasts, stochastic simulations, balance of risks, uncertainty, fan-charts

Giocare con la luce. Idee per attività di osservazione ed esplorazione

pp.57-75Con le attività che presentiamo in questo capitolo ci si propone di studiare alcuni aspetti fisici della luce partendo da osservazioni di fatti del mondo di ogni giorno, come per esempio riconoscere gli effetti dovuti alla propagazione rettilinea della luce, collegare la scomposizione della luce bianca ai colori, individuare varie situazioni della percezione delle immagini. Le esperienze suggerite sono tutte realizzabili con materiali "poveri" che fanno parte del mondo quotidiano dei bambini e che, oltre a costare poco, non li spaventano ed anzi li invitano ad assumere l'abitudine di porsi delle domande sulle cose che li circondano.With the activities we present in this chapter, we intend to study some physical aspects of light from observations of everyday world events, such as recognizing the effects of the direct propagation of light, linking the white light to the color , to identify various situations of image perception. Suggested experiences are all feasible with "poor" materials that are part of the everyday world of children and that, in addition to cost a little, they do not frighten them and even invite them to take the habit of asking questions about the things around them

Orangulas: effect of scheduled visual enrichment on behavioral and endocrine aspects of a captive orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus)

Captivity may have adverse effects on captive great apes, as they spend much more of their time engaged in foraging and other activities in the wild. Enrichment interventions have the potential to alleviate the adverse effects of captivity by introducing novel stimuli. In orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus), interactive digital enrichment has proven effective at engaging users out of their own free will, in exchange for nothing but the experience. This article reports the results of scheduled visual enrichment in the form of “orangulas”—one-hour long videos of footage consisting mainly of open spaces in different environments, with which the pongid participant could engage at free will. The efficacy of the orangulas were measured with both behavioural and endocrine measurements, concluding that scheduled visual enrichment has the potential to improve the welfare of captive orangutans by providing novel stimuli in the context of largely stable environments

Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Case Study of Korea Investment Corporation

Based on \u201cin-depth study\u201d, the aim of the paper is to investigate Korea Investment Corporation (KIC), a non-commodity Sovereign Wealth Fund, in order to analyze its investment strategies over the time (2005-2012) and evaluate any form of \u201cpolitical bias\u201d. Our results suggest that KIC pursues financial objectives, aiming to maximize the portfolio risk/return relationship, as it manages foreign excess reserves of those managed by Bank of Korea. We also argue that a form of \u2018internal political bias\u2019 affects investment process, as most of the financial resources are managed in-house. Overall, we support the hypothesis that in Korea Investment Corporation both financial and political objectives coexis

Improving the effectiveness and efficiency of outpatient services: a scoping review of interventions at the primary-secondary care interface.

Objectives Variation in patterns of referral from primary care can lead to inappropriate overuse or underuse of specialist resources. Our aim was to review the literature on strategies involving primary care that are designed to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of outpatient services. Methods A scoping review to update a review published in 2006. We conducted a systematic literature search and qualitative evidence synthesis of studies across five intervention domains: transfer of services from hospital to primary care; relocation of hospital services to primary care; joint working between primary care practitioners and specialists; interventions to change the referral behaviour of primary care practitioners and interventions to change patient behaviour. Results The 183 studies published since 2005, taken with the findings of the previous review, suggest that transfer of services from secondary to primary care and strategies aimed at changing referral behaviour of primary care clinicians can be effective in reducing outpatient referrals and in increasing the appropriateness of referrals. Availability of specialist advice to primary care practitioners by email or phone and use of store-and-forward telemedicine also show potential for reducing outpatient referrals and hence reducing costs. There was little evidence of a beneficial effect of relocation of specialists to primary care, or joint primary/secondary care management of patients on outpatient referrals. Across all intervention categories there was little evidence available on cost-effectiveness. Conclusions There are a number of promising interventions which may improve the effectiveness and efficiency of outpatient services, including making it easier for primary care clinicians and specialists to discuss patients by email or phone. There remain substantial gaps in the evidence, particularly on cost-effectiveness, and new interventions should continue to be evaluated as they are implemented more widely. A move for specialists to work in the community is unlikely to be cost-effective without enhancing primary care clinicians' skills through education or joint consultations with complex patients.This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme (project number 12/135/02).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from SAGE via http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1355819616648982

Quality assessment of medical record as a tool for clinical risk management: a three year experience of a teaching hospital Policlinico Umberto I, Rome

Introduction: The medical record was defined by the Italian Ministry of Health in 1992 as "the information tool designed to record all relevant demographic and clinical information on a patient during a single hospitalization episode". Retrospective analysis of medical records is a tool for selecting direct and indirect indicators of critical issues (organizational, management and technical). The project’s aim being the promotion of an evaluation and self-evaluation process of medical records as a Clinical Risk Management tool to improve the quality of care within hospitals. Methods: The Authors have retrospectively analysed, using a validated grid, 1,184 medical records of patients admitted to the Teaching Hospital “Umberto I” in Rome during a three-year period (2013-2015). Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS for Windows © 19:00. All duly filled out criteria (92) were examined. “Strengths” and "Weaknesses" were identified through data analysis and Best and Bad Practice were identified based on established criteria. Conclusion: The data analysis showed marked improvements (statistically significant) in the quality of evaluated clinical documentation and indirectly upon behaviour. However, when examining some sub-criteria, critical issues emerge; these could be subject to future further corrective action

Shear bond strength of self-etch and total-etch bonding systems at different dentin depths

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the dentin shear bond strength of four adhesive systems (Adper Single Bond 2, Adper Prompt L-Pop, Magic Bond DE and Self Etch Bond) in regards to buccal and lingual surfaces and dentin depth. Forty extracted third molars had roots removed and crowns bisected in the mesiodistal direction. The buccal and lingual surfaces were fixed in a PVC/acrylic resin ring and were divided into buccal and lingual groups assigned to each selected adhesive. The same specimens prepared for the evaluation of superficial dentin shear resistance were used to evaluate the different depths of dentin. The specimens were identified and abraded at depths of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 mm. Each depth was evaluated by ISO TR 11405 using an EMIC-2000 machine regulated at 0.5 mm/min with a 200 Kgf load cell. We performed statistical analyses on the results (ANOVA, Tukey and Scheffé tests). Data revealed statistical differences (p < 0.01) in the adhesive and depth variation as well as adhesive/depth interactions. The Adper Single Bond 2 demonstrated the highest mean values of shear bond strength. The Prompt L-Pop product, a self-etching adhesive, revealed higher mean values compared with Magic Bond DE and Self Etch Bond adhesives, a total and self-etching adhesive respectively. It may be concluded that the shear bond strength of dentin is dependent on material (adhesive system), substrate depth and adhesive/depth interaction