27,450 research outputs found

    Transfer Problem Dynamics: Macroeconomics of the Franco-Prussian War Indemnity

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    We study the classic transfer problem of predicting the effects of an international transfer on the terms of trade and the current account. A two-country model with debt and capital allows for realistic features of historical transfers: they follow wartime increases in government spending and are financed partly by borrowing. The model is applied to the largest historical transfer, the Franco-Prussian War indemnity of 1871-1873. In these three years, France transferred to Germany an amount equal to 22 percent of a year's GDP. When the transfer is combined with measured shocks to fiscal policy and a proxy for productivity shocks over the period, the model provides a very close fit to the historical sample paths of French GDP, terms of trade, net exports, and aggregate consumption. This makes a strong case for the dynamic general equilibrium approach to studying the transfer problem.transfer problem, current account, terms of trade

    Sequence stratigraphy, chemostratigraphy and facies analysis of Cambrian Series 2 – Series 3 boundary strata in northwestern Scotland

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    Globally, the Series 2 – Series 3 boundary of the Cambrian System coincides with a major carbon isotope excursion, sea-level changes and trilobite extinctions. Here we examine the sedimentology, sequence stratigraphy and carbon isotope record of this interval in the Cambrian strata (Durness Group) of NW Scotland. Carbonate carbon isotope data from the lower part of the Durness Group (Ghrudaidh Formation) show that the shallow-marine, Laurentian margin carbonates record two linked sea-level and carbon isotopic events. Whilst the carbon isotope excursions are not as pronounced as those expressed elsewhere, correlation with global records (Sauk I – Sauk II boundary and Olenellus biostratigraphic constraint) identifies them as representing the local expression of the ROECE and DICE. The upper part of the ROECE is recorded in the basal Ghrudaidh Formation whilst the DICE is seen around 30m above the base of this unit. Both carbon isotope excursions co-occur with surfaces interpreted to record regressive–transgressive events that produced amalgamated sequence boundaries and ravinement/flooding surfaces overlain by conglomerates of reworked intraclasts. The ROECE has been linked with redlichiid and olenellid trilobite extinctions, but in NW Scotland, Olenellus is found after the negative peak of the carbon isotope excursion but before sequence boundary formation

    Dynamic Analysis of Executables to Detect and Characterize Malware

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    It is needed to ensure the integrity of systems that process sensitive information and control many aspects of everyday life. We examine the use of machine learning algorithms to detect malware using the system calls generated by executables-alleviating attempts at obfuscation as the behavior is monitored rather than the bytes of an executable. We examine several machine learning techniques for detecting malware including random forests, deep learning techniques, and liquid state machines. The experiments examine the effects of concept drift on each algorithm to understand how well the algorithms generalize to novel malware samples by testing them on data that was collected after the training data. The results suggest that each of the examined machine learning algorithms is a viable solution to detect malware-achieving between 90% and 95% class-averaged accuracy (CAA). In real-world scenarios, the performance evaluation on an operational network may not match the performance achieved in training. Namely, the CAA may be about the same, but the values for precision and recall over the malware can change significantly. We structure experiments to highlight these caveats and offer insights into expected performance in operational environments. In addition, we use the induced models to gain a better understanding about what differentiates the malware samples from the goodware, which can further be used as a forensics tool to understand what the malware (or goodware) was doing to provide directions for investigation and remediation.Comment: 9 pages, 6 Tables, 4 Figure

    Observation of Muon Neutrino Disappearance with the MINOS Detectors in the NuMI Neutrino Beam

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    This Letter reports results from the MINOS experiment based on its initial exposure to neutrinos from the Fermilab NuMI beam. The rates and energy spectra of charged current ν_μ interactions are compared in two detectors located along the beam axis at distances of 1 and 735 km. With 1.27×10^(20) 120 GeV protons incident on the NuMI target, 215 events with energies below 30 GeV are observed at the Far Detector, compared to an expectation of 336±14 events. The data are consistent with ν_μ disappearance via oscillations with Δm_(32)^2|=2.74_(-0.26)^(+0.44)×10^(-3)  eV^2 and sin^2(2θ_(23))>0.87 (68% C.L.)

    First observations of separated atmospheric ν_μ and ν̅ _μ events in the MINOS detector

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    The complete 5.4 kton MINOS far detector has been taking data since the beginning of August 2003 at a depth of 2070 meters water-equivalent in the Soudan mine, Minnesota. This paper presents the first MINOS observations of ν_μ and ν̅ _μ charged-current atmospheric neutrino interactions based on an exposure of 418 days. The ratio of upward- to downward-going events in the data is compared to the Monte Carlo expectation in the absence of neutrino oscillations, giving R^(data)_(up/down/R^(MC)_(up/down) = 0:62^(+0.19)_(0:14)(stat.) ± 0.02(sys.). An extended maximum likelihood analysis of the observed L/E distributions excludes the null hypothesis of no neutrino oscillations at the 98% confidence level. Using the curvature of the observed muons in the 1.3 T MINOS magnetic field ν_μ and ν̅ _μ interactions are separated. The ratio of ν̅ _μ to ν_μ events in the data is compared to the Monte Carlo expectation assuming neutrinos and antineutrinos oscillate in the same manner, giving R^(data)_(ν_μ/ν̅ _μ) / R^(MC)_(ν_μ/ν̅ _μ) = 0.96^(+0:38)_(0.27)(stat.) ± 0.15(sys.), where the errors are the statistical and systematic uncertainties. Although the statistics are limited, this is the first direct observation of atmospheric neutrino interactions separately for ν_μ and ν̅ _μ

    Growth, processing, and optical properties of epitaxial Er_2O_3 on silicon

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    Erbium-doped materials have been investigated for generating and amplifying light in low-power chip-scale optical networks on silicon, but several effects limit their performance in dense microphotonic applications. Stoichiometric ionic crystals are a potential alternative that achieve an Er^(3+) density 100× greater. We report the growth, processing, material characterization, and optical properties of single-crystal Er_2O_3 epitaxially grown on silicon. A peak Er^(3+) resonant absorption of 364 dB/cm at 1535nm with minimal background loss places a high limit on potential gain. Using high-quality microdisk resonators, we conduct thorough C/L-band radiative efficiency and lifetime measurements and observe strong upconverted luminescence near 550 and 670 nm

    Comprehensive simulations of superhumps

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    (Abridged) We use 3D SPH calculations with higher resolution, as well as with more realistic viscosity and sound-speed prescriptions than previous work to examine the eccentric instability which underlies the superhump phenomenon in semi-detached binaries. We illustrate the importance of the two-armed spiral mode in the generation of superhumps. Differential motions in the fluid disc cause converging flows which lead to strong spiral shocks once each superhump cycle. The dissipation associated with these shocks powers the superhump. We compare 2D and 3D results, and conclude that 3D simulations are necessary to faithfully simulate the disc dynamics. We ran our simulations for unprecedented durations, so that an eccentric equilibrium is established except at high mass ratios where the growth rate of the instability is very low. Our improved simulations give a closer match to the observed relationship between superhump period excess and binary mass ratio than previous numerical work. The observed black hole X-ray transient superhumpers appear to have systematically lower disc precession rates than the cataclysmic variables. This could be due to higher disc temperatures and thicknesses. The modulation in total viscous dissipation on the superhump period is overwhelmingly from the region of the disc within the 3:1 resonance radius. As the eccentric instability develops, the viscous torques are enhanced, and the disc consequently adjusts to a new equilibrium state, as suggested in the thermal-tidal instability model. We quantify this enhancement in the viscosity, which is ~10 per cent for q=0.08. We characterise the eccentricity distributions in our accretion discs, and show that the entire body of the disc partakes in the eccentricity.Comment: 18 pages (mn2e LaTeX), 14 figures, 5 tables, Accepted for publication in MNRA
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