Voter Turnout: Theory and Evidence from Texas Liquor Referenda

This paper uses data from Texas liquor referenda to explore a new approach to understanding voter turnout, inspired by the theoretical work of Harsanyi (1980) and Feddersen and Sandroni (2001). It presents a model based on this approach and structurally estimates it using the referendum data. It then compares the performance of the model with two alternative models of turnout. The results are encouraging: the structural estimation yields sensible parameter estimates and the model performs better than the two alternatives considered.

The Performance of the Pivotal-Voter Model in Small-Scale Elections: Evidence from Texas Liquor Referenda

How well does the pivotal-voter model explain voter participation in small-scale elections? This paper explores this question using data from Texas liquor referenda. It first structurally estimates the parameters of a pivotal-voter model using the Texas data. It then uses the estimates to evaluate both the within and out-of-sample performance of the model. The analysis shows that the model is capable of predicting turnout in the data fairly well, but tends, on average, to predict closer electoral outcomes than are observed in the data. This difficulty allows the pivotal-voter model to be outperformed by a simple alternative model based on the idea of expressive voting.

Industrial Pollution in Coles County, Illinois

The Anaconda American Brass Company at Mattoon, Coles County, Illinois was found to discharge waste containing excessive amounts of copper, hexavalent chromium, sulfates, acids, and alkalies. These wastes were found to enter an agricultural field tile system and to emit at the Shellhammer tile where they entered a small unnamed creek, a large pond along Interstate 57, and Riley Creek. Tests of the Shellhammer tile and Anaconda American Brass Company effluent were conducted from March, 1970 thru May, 1971. Maximum concentrations determined were as follows: (1) copper -- 15.5 ppm; (2) hexavalent chromium -- 1.5 ppm; (3) pH -- range of 2.3 - 12.4; (4) phosphates -- 8.0 ppm; (5) sulfates -- 1500 ppm. Oil, although not measured chemically, was observed to coat the banks and surface of the receiving waterway on several occasions. The phosphate and oil pollutional sources were not pinpointed in this study. Natural fish kills (393 dead fish collected) below the tile outfall were found to be associated with excessive copper and chromate levels and/or an extremely acidic pH on one occasion while very alkaline pH levels and/or high sulfate levels seemingly accounted for the three remaining kills. Results of two practical.toxicity bioassays using creek chubs (Semotilus atromaculatus) revealed copper (4.2 - 12.5 ppm) and/or hexavalent chromate (0.85 - 1.45 ppm) to apparently cause 100 percent mortality just below the effluent outfall within 72 hours and 100 percent mortality one-half mile below Shellhammer tile outfall within 48 hours. The second experiment showed copper of 8.5 ppm and/or a pH level of 3.3 to apparently cause 100 percent fish mortality within 24 hours. Other biota observed to be adversely affected by the tile effluent were algae, crayfish, and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus). Massive amounts of Ulothrix were noted to succumb during the periods of heavy copper and chromate pollution in July, 1970. However, Ulothrix, Zygnema, Stigeoclonium, Microspora, Spirogyra, and Euglena survived copper concentrations ranging from 0.10 - 2.50 ppm during the spring of 1971

Love at What Price? Estimating the Value of Marriage

Using a law within Social Security that provides clear financial incentives to delay marriage, we estimate the financial value of a month of marriage. Specifically, the law provides that widows who are eligible for Social Security benefits on their deceased spouse\u27s earnings records are eligible for benefits at age 60, unless they remarry before that age. If they remarry before that age, they cannot claim widow benefits and must wait until at least age 62 to claim spousal benefits on their new husband\u27s record, which are typically less generous than widow benefits. To generate an estimate of what this behavior implies about the value of marriage, we use data from five panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation linked to administrative data from Social Security. We estimate the cost of marrying before age 60 imposed by the Social Security program. We develop a model that reflects the institutional details of Social Security and generate a likelihood function that reflects that model. By taking advantage of the variation in these costs and when or whether widows remarry before age 60, we estimate the benefit of marriage to be $8000/month. These estimates appear to be reasonable in the context of the short length of time widows are willing to wait and the high value of Social Security benefits

Entry Deterring Capacity in the Texas Lodging Industry

We test whether capacity is used to deter entry and whether the amount invested in entry deterring capacity is related to market concentration and market presence. We use a unique dataset containing all lodging properties in Texas from 1991 through 1997. For each of the 3,830 properties, we have information on occupancy rate, number of rooms, location and ownership. This information is augmented by market level information such as tax rates, travel expenditures and retail wages. We find that there is higher investment in capacity relative to demand (i.e. idle capacity) in markets with larger Herfindahl index and by firms with larger share of market capacity. These results are consistent with the entry deterrence literature that suggests firms in more concentrated markets and firms with larger market share have greater incentive to invest in entry deterring capacity

Molecular Mechanisms of Flexibility in Nonhomologous End Joining

DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) are highly toxic DNA lesions that play a critical role in human health and disease. The ability to repair these lesions is essential in all kingdoms of life, and in mammals is primarily attributed to the nonhomologous end joining (NHEJ) pathway. NHEJ faces a unique challenge: unlike other forms of DNA damage, DSBs are structurally heterogeneous, varying wildly in end chemistry. To address this problem, NHEJ has evolved uniquely flexible enzymes: DNA polymerases and a DNA ligase that can act on a remarkable variety of substrates, much more so than their counterparts in other pathways. The mechanistic basis of this flexibility, and its significance to biological repair, are unknown. DNA Ligase IV (LIG4) is the only human DNA ligase that participates in NHEJ, and the only one that can efficiently ligate ends across gaps, or with terminal mispairs. We show by single-molecule analysis that terminal mispairs lead NHEJ complexes to mobilize DNA ends and thereby sample more end alignments. This flexibility is what allows LIG4 to join such ends, since pairing flexibility and ligation both require a LIG4-specific structural motif, insert1. Our work showed that pairing flexibility is what enables LIG4 to tolerate a chemically diverse array of substrates, and that this tolerance is essential for cells to survive exogenous DNA damage such as ionizing radiation. NHEJ employs two uniquely flexible polymerases to prepare ends for ligation: DNA polymerase μ (pol µ) and terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase (TdT). These enzymes act on noncanonical substrates that other polymerases cannot engage. We show these polymerases primarily incorporate ribonucleotides (RNA), not deoxynucleotides (DNA), during NHEJ, both during repair of chromosome breaks made by Cas9 and during V(D)J recombination. These ribonucleotides facilitate NHEJ by enabling ligation of ends with adjacent mispairs, and even single strand ligation. Supplementing cells expressing TdT with deoxynucleotides thus blocks repair of Cas9-induced breaks, while ribonucleotide supplementation can improve Cas9-directed mutagenesis. Our results indicate cellular NHEJ often involves transiently embedded ribonucleotides, which promote flexibility in repair at the cost of more fragile intermediates.Doctor of Philosoph

Slippery When Wet: The Effects of Local Alcohol Access Laws on Highway Safety

This paper examines 237 instances of policy changes related to alcohol sales and consumption enacted in Texas communities between 1975 and 1996 to determine their effect on the incidence of alcohol-related motor vehicle accidents. These policies are categorized by location where the alcohol is consumed after sale (on the premises or off) and the type of alcohol available for consumption (beer and wine or hard liquor). After controlling for both county and year fixed effects, we find evidence that (i) the sale of alcohol for consumption on the premises (in bars and restaurants) is associated with a sizeable increase in alcohol-related motor vehicle accidents, (ii) the sale of alcohol (in liquor stores) for consumption off the premises may actually decrease expected accidents, and (iii) the sale of higher proof alcohol (hard liquor) presents greater risk to highway safety