A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting

The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: Hl Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H2 The relative advantage of objective over subjective methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. H3 Causal methods provide more accuracy than do naive methods. H4 The relative advantage of causal over naive methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. Support for these hypotheses was then obtained from the literature and from a study of a single market. The study used three different models to make ex ante forecasts of the U.S. air travel market from 1963 through 1968. These hypotheses imply that econometric methods are more accurate for long range market forecasting than are the major alternatives, expert judgment and extrapolation, and that the relative superiority of econometric methods increases as the time span of the forecast increases.long-range market forecasting, forecasting methods, forecasting

Impact of Radiotherapy, Chemotherapy and Surgery in Multimodal Treatment of Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer

Objectives: It was the aim of this study to assess our institutional experience with definitive chemoradiation (CRT) versus induction chemotherapy followed by CRT with or without surgery (C-CRT/S) in esophageal cancer. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 129 institutional patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer who had been treated by either CRT in analogy to the RTOG 8501 trial (n = 78) or C-CRT/S (n = 51). Results: The median, 2-and 5-year overall survival (OS) of the entire collective was 17.6 months, 42 and 24%, respectively, without a significant difference between the CRT and C-CRT/S groups. In C-CRT/S patients, surgery statistically improved the locoregional control (LRC) rates (2-year LRC 73.6 vs. 21.2%; p = 0.003); however, this was translated only into a trend towards improved OS (p = 0.084). The impact of escalated radiation doses (>= 60.0 vs. <60.0 Gy) on LRC was detectable only in T1-3 N0-1 M0 patients of the CRT group (2-year LRC 77.8 vs. 42.3%; p = 0.036). Conclusion: Definitive CRT and a trimodality approach including surgery (C-CRT/S) had a comparable outcome in this unselected patient collective. Surgery and higher radiation doses improve LRC rates in subgroups of patients, respectively, but without effect on OS. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Changes in undergraduate student alcohol consumption as they progress through university

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy alcohol use amongst university students is a major public health concern. Although previous studies suggest a raised level of consumption amongst the UK student population there is little consistent information available about the pattern of alcohol consumption as they progress through university. The aim of the current research was to describe drinking patterns of UK full-time undergraduate students as they progress through their degree course. METHOD: Data were collected over three years from 5895 undergraduate students who began their studies in either 2000 or 2001. Longitudinal data (i.e. Years 1–3) were available from 225 students. The remaining 5670 students all responded to at least one of the three surveys (Year 1 n = 2843; Year 2 n = 2219; Year 3 n = 1805). Results: Students reported consuming significantly more units of alcohol per week at Year 1 than at Years 2 or 3 of their degree. Male students reported a higher consumption of units of alcohol than their female peers. When alcohol intake was classified using the Royal College of Physicians guidelines [1] there was no difference between male and females students in terms of the percentage exceeding recommended limits. Compared to those who were low level consumers students who reported drinking above low levels at Year 1 had at least 10 times the odds of continuing to consume above low levels at year 3. Students who reported higher levels of drinking were more likely to report that alcohol had a negative impact on their studies, finances and physical health. Consistent with the reduction in units over time students reported lower levels of negative impact during Year 3 when compared to Year 1. CONCLUSION: The current findings suggest that student alcohol consumption declines over their undergraduate studies; however weekly levels of consumption at Year 3 remain high for a substantial number of students. The persistence of high levels of consumption in a large population of students suggests the need for effective preventative and treatment interventions for all year groups

A Bayesian method for evaluating and discovering disease loci associations

Background: A genome-wide association study (GWAS) typically involves examining representative SNPs in individuals from some population. A GWAS data set can concern a million SNPs and may soon concern billions. Researchers investigate the association of each SNP individually with a disease, and it is becoming increasingly commonplace to also analyze multi-SNP associations. Techniques for handling so many hypotheses include the Bonferroni correction and recently developed Bayesian methods. These methods can encounter problems. Most importantly, they are not applicable to a complex multi-locus hypothesis which has several competing hypotheses rather than only a null hypothesis. A method that computes the posterior probability of complex hypotheses is a pressing need. Methodology/Findings: We introduce the Bayesian network posterior probability (BNPP) method which addresses the difficulties. The method represents the relationship between a disease and SNPs using a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model, and computes the likelihood of such models using a Bayesian network scoring criterion. The posterior probability of a hypothesis is computed based on the likelihoods of all competing hypotheses. The BNPP can not only be used to evaluate a hypothesis that has previously been discovered or suspected, but also to discover new disease loci associations. The results of experiments using simulated and real data sets are presented. Our results concerning simulated data sets indicate that the BNPP exhibits both better evaluation and discovery performance than does a p-value based method. For the real data sets, previous findings in the literature are confirmed and additional findings are found. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that the BNPP resolves a pressing problem by providing a way to compute the posterior probability of complex multi-locus hypotheses. A researcher can use the BNPP to determine the expected utility of investigating a hypothesis further. Furthermore, we conclude that the BNPP is a promising method for discovering disease loci associations. © 2011 Jiang et al

Early and efficient detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in sputum by microscopic observation of broth cultures.

Early, efficient and inexpensive methods for the detection of pulmonary tuberculosis are urgently needed for effective patient management as well as to interrupt transmission. These methods to detect M. tuberculosis in a timely and affordable way are not yet widely available in resource-limited settings. In a developing-country setting, we prospectively evaluated two methods for culturing and detecting M. tuberculosis in sputum. Sputum samples were cultured in liquid assay (micro broth culture) in microplate wells and growth was detected by microscopic observation, or in Löwenstein-Jensen (LJ) solid media where growth was detected by visual inspection for colonies. Sputum samples were collected from 321 tuberculosis (TB) suspects attending Bugando Medical Centre, in Mwanza, Tanzania, and were cultured in parallel. Pulmonary tuberculosis cases were diagnosed using the American Thoracic Society diagnostic standards. There were a total of 200 (62.3%) pulmonary tuberculosis cases. Liquid assay with microscopic detection detected a significantly higher proportion of cases than LJ solid culture: 89.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 84.7% to 93.3%) versus 77.0% (95% CI, 71.2% to 82.8%) (p = 0.0007). The median turn around time to diagnose tuberculosis was significantly shorter for micro broth culture than for the LJ solid culture, 9 days (interquartile range [IQR] 7-13), versus 21 days (IQR 14-28) (p<0.0001). The cost for micro broth culture (labor inclusive) in our study was US $4.56 per sample, versus US$11.35 per sample for the LJ solid culture. The liquid assay (micro broth culture) is an early, feasible, and inexpensive method for detection of pulmonary tuberculosis in resource limited settings

Effect of vitamin K2 on postural sway in older people who fall:a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVES: Vitamin K is thought to be involved in both bone health and maintenance of neuromuscular function. We tested the effect of vitamin K2 supplementation on postural sway, falls, healthcare costs, and indices of physical function in older people at risk of falls.DESIGN: Parallel-group double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trial.SETTING: Fourteen primary care practices in Scotland, UK.PARTICIPANTS: A total of 95 community-dwelling participants aged 65 and older with at least two falls, or one injurious fall, in the previous year.INTERVENTION: Once/day placebo, 200 μg or 400 μg of oral vitamin K2 for 1 year.MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was anteroposterior sway measured using sway plates at 12 months, adjusted for baseline. Secondary outcomes included the Short Physical Performance Battery, Berg Balance Scale, Timed Up &amp; Go Test, quality of life, health and social care costs, falls, and adverse events.RESULTS: Mean participant age was 75 (standard deviation [SD] = 7) years. Overall, 58 of 95 (61%) were female; 77 of 95 (81%) attended the 12-month visit. No significant effect of either vitamin K2 dose was seen on the primary outcome of anteroposterior sway (200 μg vs placebo: -.19 cm [95% confidence interval [CI] -.68 to .30; P = .44]; 400 μg vs placebo: .17 cm [95% CI -.33 to .66; P = .50]; or 400 μg vs 200 μg: .36 cm [95% CI -.11 to .83; P = .14]). Adjusted falls rates were similar in each group. No significant treatment effects were seen for other measures of sway or secondary outcomes. Costs were higher in both vitamin K2 arms than in the placebo arm.CONCLUSION: Oral vitamin K2 supplementation did not improve postural sway or physical function in older people at risk of falls.</p

A strategy for the characterization of minute chromosome rearrangements using multiple color fluorescence in situ hybridization with chromosome-specific DNA libraries and YAC clones

The identification of marker chromosomes in clinical and tumor cytogenetics by chromosome banding analysis can create problems. In this study, we present a strategy to define minute chromosomal rearrangements by multicolor fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with whole chromosome painting probes derived from chromosome-specific DNA libraries and Alu-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) products of various region-specific yeast artificial chromosome (YAC) clones. To demonstrate the usefulness of this strategy for the characterization of chromosome rearrangements unidentifiable by banding techniques, an 8p+ marker chromosome with two extra bands present in the karyotype of a child with multiple anomalies, malformations, and severe mental retardation was investigated. A series of seven-color FISH experiments with sets of fluorochrome-labeled DNA library probes from flow-sorted chromosomes demonstrated that the additional segment on 8p+ was derived from chromosome 6. For a more detailed characterization of the marker chromosome, three-color FISH experiments with library probes specific to chromosomes 6 and 8 were performed in combination with newly established telomeric and subtelomeric YAC clones from 6q25, 6p23, and 8p23. These experiments demonstrated a trisomy 6pter6p22 and a monosomy 8pter8p23 in the patient. The present limitations for a broad application of this strategy and its possible improvements are discusse

Sensory Electrical Stimulation Improves Foot Placement during Targeted Stepping Post-Stroke

Proper foot placement is vital for maintaining balance during walking, requiring the integration of multiple sensory signals with motor commands. Disruption of brain structures post-stroke likely alters the processing of sensory information by motor centers, interfering with precision control of foot placement and walking function for stroke survivors. In this study, we examined whether somatosensory stimulation, which improves functional movements of the paretic hand, could be used to improve foot placement of the paretic limb. Foot placement was evaluated before, during, and after application of somatosensory electrical stimulation to the paretic foot during a targeted stepping task. Starting from standing, twelve chronic stroke participants initiated movement with the non-paretic limb and stepped to one of five target locations projected onto the floor with distances normalized to the paretic stride length. Targeting error and lower extremity kinematics were used to assess changes in foot placement and limb control due to somatosensory stimulation. Significant reductions in placement error in the medial–lateral direction (p = 0.008) were observed during the stimulation and post-stimulation blocks. Seven participants, presenting with a hip circumduction walking pattern, had reductions (p = 0.008) in the magnitude and duration of hip abduction during swing with somatosensory stimulation. Reductions in circumduction correlated with both functional and clinical measures, with larger improvements observed in participants with greater impairment. The results of this study suggest that somatosensory stimulation of the paretic foot applied during movement can improve the precision control of foot placement

The price of tumor control: an analysis of rare side effects of anti-CTLA-4 therapy in metastatic melanoma from the ipilimumab network

Background: Ipilimumab, a cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen-4 (CTLA-4) blocking antibody, has been approved for the treatment of metastatic melanoma and induces adverse events (AE) in up to 64% of patients. Treatment algorithms for the management of common ipilimumab-induced AEs have lead to a reduction of morbidity, e.g. due to bowel perforations. However, the spectrum of less common AEs is expanding as ipilimumab is increasingly applied. Stringent recognition and management of AEs will reduce drug-induced morbidity and costs, and thus, positively impact the cost-benefit ratio of the drug. To facilitate timely identification and adequate management data on rare AEs were analyzed at 19 skin cancer centers. Methods and Findings: Patient files (n = 752) were screened for rare ipilimumab-associated AEs. A total of 120 AEs, some of which were life-threatening or even fatal, were reported and summarized by organ system describing the most instructive cases in detail. Previously unreported AEs like drug rash with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS), granulomatous inflammation of the central nervous system, and aseptic meningitis, were documented. Obstacles included patientś delay in reporting symptoms and the differentiation of steroid-induced from ipilimumab-induced AEs under steroid treatment. Importantly, response rate was high in this patient population with tumor regression in 30.9% and a tumor control rate of 61.8% in stage IV melanoma patients despite the fact that some patients received only two of four recommended ipilimumab infusions. This suggests that ipilimumab-induced antitumor responses can have an early onset and that severe autoimmune reactions may reflect overtreatment. Conclusion: The wide spectrum of ipilimumab-induced AEs demands doctor and patient awareness to reduce morbidity and treatment costs and true ipilimumab success is dictated by both objective tumor responses and controlling severe side effects