How Trade Politics Affect Invasive Species Control

Trade has become the main mode of transport for many invasive species including diseases and agricultural pests. Most species are brought to their new homes unintentionally, which constitute a market failure rooted in international trade. Unless it is practical to drive invasion risk to zero, the external costs may justify a tariff. In this paper we analyze the political process likely to govern the formation of tariffs so justified, using a straightforward incorporation of an invasive species externality into Grossman and Helpman’s well-known political economy model. We show our measure of disguised protectionism—the gap between the optimal tariff and that set in the equilibrium of the political economy game—is equal to the tariff that would be set if there were no invasive species and no international disciplines on trade policy. The informational needs required to distinguish disguised protectionism from legitimate public-goods protection are formidable.invasive species, protectionism, tariff, political economy

Safe Minimum Standards in Dynamic Resource Problems—Conditions for Living on the Edge of Risk

Abstract Safe Minimum Standards (SMSs) have been advocated as a policy rule for environmental problems where uncertainty about risks and consequences are thought to be profound. This paper explores the rationale for such a policy within a dynamic framework and derives conditions for when SMS can be summarily dismissed as a policy choice and for when SMS can be defended as an optimal policy based on standard economic criteria. We have determined that these conditions can be checked with quite limited information about damages and risks. In order to analyze the SMSs in a dynamic setting, we have developed a method for solving optimal control problems where the state space is divided into risky and non-risky subsets.safe minimum standards; optimal control; critical zone; threshold effects; mixed risk spaces

Implementing the Efficient Auction: Initial Results from the Lab

The efficient auction is designed to induce truthful bidding for bidders with affiliated values. Herein we implement the auction in the lab, and observe that inexperienced people can bid systematically in this more complex environment, albeit yielding a flatter bid function than the truthful.Key Words: auction, affiliation, experiments, valuation

Unprotected Resources and Voracious World Markets

The Theory of the Second Best implies that any country with less-than-ideal resources can lose from international trade. Recently it has been suggested this means the South (poor countries) are better off suppressing trade with the North, especially trade in natural resource products, since the North has better developed rights to protect its natural resources. Here we show that the suppression of such trade may also impede the development of property rights in the South, but that even taking this into account, trade liberalization need not improve Southern welfare. We find that within a cone of world prices on the boundary of which lies the South’s autarky price vector, welfare losses still occur even when local governments in the South make optimal choices to enclose the hinterlands. Corollary to the losses, the South can gain from tariffs or quotas and, within a proper subset of the cone of loss, can suffer when the prices of its exports rise.International Trade; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Environment; Second Best; Institutional Change; Development

Is the Endangered Species Act Endangering Species?

We develop theory and present a suite of theoretically consistent empirical measures to explore the extent to which market intervention inadvertently alters resource allocation in a sequentialmove principal/agent game. We showcase our approach empirically by exploring the extent to which the U.S. Endangered Species Act has altered land development patterns. We report evidence indicating significant acceleration of development directly after each of several events deemed likely to raise fears among owners of habitat land. Our preferred estimate suggests an overall acceleration of land development by roughly one year. We also find from complementary hedonic regression models that habitat parcels declined in value when the habitat map was published, which is consistent with our estimates of the degree of preemption. These results have clear implications for policymakers, who continue to discuss alternative regulatory frameworks for species preservation. More generally, our modeling strategies can be widely applied -- from any particular economic environment that has a sequential-move nature to the narrower case of the political economy of regulation.

A prospective adaptive utility trial to validate performance of a novel urine exosome gene expression assay to predict high-grade prostate cancer in patients with prostate-specific antigen 2-10ng/ml at initial biopsy

BACKGROUND: Discriminating indolent from clinically significant prostate cancer (PCa) in the initial biopsy setting remains an important issue. Prospectively evaluated diagnostic assays are necessary to ensure efficacy and clinical adoption. OBJECTIVE: Performance and utility assessment of ExoDx Prostate (IntelliScore) (EPI) urine exosome gene expression assay versus standard clinical parameters for discriminating Grade Group (GG) ≥2 PCa from GG1 PCa and benign disease on initial biopsy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A two-phase adaptive clinical utility study (NCT03031418) comparing EPI results with biopsy outcomes in men, with age ≥50 yr and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) 2-10ng/ml, scheduled for initial prostate biopsy. After EPI performance assessment during phase I, a clinical implementation document (ie, CarePath) was developed for utilizing the EPI test in phase II, where the biopsy decision is uncertain. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Performance evaluation of the EPI test in patients enrolled in phase I and publication of a consensus CarePath for phase II. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: In a total of 503 patients, with median age of 64 yr, median PSA 5.4ng/ml, 14% African American, 70% Caucasian, 53% positive biopsy rate (22% GG1, 17% GG2, and 15% ≥ GG3), EPI was superior to an optimized model of standard clinical parameters with an area under the curve (AUC) 0.70 versus 0.62, respectively, comparable with previously published results (n=519 patients, EPI AUC 0.71). Validated cut-point 15.6 would avoid 26% of unnecessary prostate biopsies and 20% of total biopsies, with negative predictive value (NPV) 89% and missing 7% of ≥GG2 PCa. Alternative cut-point 20 would avoid 40% of unnecessary biopsies and 31% of total biopsies, with NPV 89% and missing 11% of ≥GG2 PCa. The clinical investigators reached consensus recommending use of the 15.6 cut-point for phase II. Outcome of the decision impact cohort in phase II will be reported separately. CONCLUSIONS: EPI is a noninvasive, easy-to-use, gene expression urine assay, which has now been successfully validated in over 1000 patients across two prospective validation trials to stratify risk of ≥GG2 from GG1 cancer and benign disease. The test improves identification of patients with higher grade disease and would reduce the total number of unnecessary biopsies. PATIENT SUMMARY: It is challenging to predict which men are likely to have high-grade prostate cancer (PCa) at initial biopsy with prostate-specific antigen 2-10ng/ml. This study further demonstrates that the ExoDx Prostate (IntelliScore) test can predict ≥GG2 PCa at initial biopsy and defer unnecessary biopsies better than existing risk calculator\u27s and standard clinical data

Towards cyber-physical systems as services: the ASIP protocol

The development of Cyber-Physical Systems needs to address the heterogeneity of several components that interact to build a single application. In this paper we present a model to enable easy integration and interaction of micro-controllers. Specifically, we describe the Arduino Service Interface Protocol (ASIP), we provide an implementation and client libraries for Java, Racket and Erlang, together with the description of a practical example

A Cure for HIV Infection: "Not in My Lifetime" or "Just Around the Corner"?

With the advent and stunning success of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prolong and improve quality of life for persons with HIV infection, HIV research has been afforded the opportunity to pivot towards studies aimed at finding "a cure." The mere idea that cure of HIV might be possible has energized researchers and the community towards achieving this goal. Funding agencies, both governmental and private, have targeted HIV cure as a high priority; many in the field have responded to these initiatives and the cure research agenda is robust. In this "salon" two editors of Pathogens and Immunity, Michael Lederman and Daniel Douek ask whether curing HIV is a realistic, scalable objective. We start with an overview perspective and have asked a number of prominent HIV researchers to add to the discussion

Regulating the automobile

Division of Policy Research and Analysis. National Science Foundatio

Corals of the genus Porites are a locally abundant component of the epibiont community on mangrove prop roots at Calabash Caye, Turneffe Atoll, Belize

Mangroves are generally regarded as inhospitable for corals, but recent reports suggest they provide ecological refuge for some species. We surveyed diverse mangrove habitats on Turneffe Atoll, Belize, documenting 127 colonies of Porites divaricata (Thin Finger Coral) along 1858 m of mangrove prop roots at Calabash Caye and a much more diverse coral assemblage at Crooked Creek. At Calabash, corals were highly clumped, and varied widely in size and morphology, including large well-arborized colonies, encrusting forms with few branches, and new recruits with no branches, suggesting an age-structuredpopulation exhibiting extensive morphological plasticity. The data described here contributeto an emerging picture of mangroves as potentially critical habitat for many Caribbeancoral species.Accepted manuscrip