Tax-benefit microsimulation modelling in Mozambique: A feasibility study

This paper assesses the feasibility of developing a tax and benefit microsimulation model in Mozambique. Mozambique's National Development Strategy 2015-35 commits to providing social security to three-quarters of poor and vulnerable households by 2035. Tax-benefit microsimulation can be used to explore ways in which this goal could be achieved as well as the distributional impact of implementing more comprehensive social security arrangements. The paper presents an account of Mozambique's tax and benefit arrangements as well as a possible underpinning dataset - the Household Budget Survey (Inquérito ao Orçamento Familiar) - for a tax and benefit microsimulation model

SAMOD, a South African tax-benefit microsimulation model: Recent developments

This paper provides an account of a South African tax-benefit microsimulation model - SAMOD - which has been developed for use by government over the past ten years. The two datasets that underpin the current version of SAMOD are introduced, and the model's tax and benefit policies are described with discussion of the various data challenges and assumptions that had to be made in order to simulate them, with particular emphasis on the value-added tax policy. Simulations using the two different underpinning datasets are compared with reported administrative data. The paper concludes by highlighting three future developments for SAMOD

Updating NAMOD: A Namibian tax-benefit microsimulation model

This paper provides an account of a Nambian tax-benefit microsimulation model - NAMOD - which has been developed for use by government. Following a section on the importance of social security in Namibia and recent related studies, the paper outlines the tax-benefit policies that are included within NAMOD and describes the data challenges and assumptions that had to be made in order to simulate these policies. Results for 2015 are compared with reported administrative data. In spite of current data challenges, NAMOD can be used to help inform social security policy design

Urinary p75(ECD): A prognostic, disease progression, and pharmacodynamic biomarker in ALS.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate urinary neurotrophin receptor p75 extracellular domain (p75(ECD)) levels as disease progression and prognostic biomarkers in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). METHODS: The population in this study comprised 45 healthy controls and 54 people with ALS, 31 of whom were sampled longitudinally. Urinary p75(ECD) was measured using an enzyme-linked immunoassay and validation included intra-assay and inter-assay coefficients of variation, effect of circadian rhythm, and stability over time at room temperature, 4°C, and repeated freeze-thaw cycles. Longitudinal changes in urinary p75(ECD) were examined by mixed model analysis, and the prognostic value of baseline p75(ECD) was explored by survival analysis. RESULTS: Confirming our previous findings, p75(ECD) was higher in patients with ALS (5.6 ± 2.2 ng/mg creatinine) compared to controls (3.6 ± 1.4 ng/mg creatinine, p < 0.0001). Assay reproducibility was high, with p75(ECD) showing stability across repeated freeze-thaw cycles, at room temperature and 4°C for 2 days, and no diurnal variation. Urinary p75(ECD) correlated with the revised ALS Functional Rating Scale at first evaluation (r = -0.44, p = 0.008) and across all study visits (r = -0.36, p < 0.0001). p75(ECD) also increased as disease progressed at an average rate of 0.19 ng/mg creatinine per month (p < 0.0001). In multivariate prognostic analysis, bulbar onset (hazard ratio [HR] 3.0, p = 0.0035), rate of disease progression from onset to baseline (HR 4.4, p < 0.0001), and baseline p75(ECD) (HR 1.3, p = 0.0004) were predictors of survival. CONCLUSIONS: The assay for urinary p75(ECD) is analytically robust and shows promise as an ALS biomarker with prognostic, disease progression, and potential pharmacodynamic application. Baseline urinary p75(ECD) provides prognostic information and is currently the only biological fluid-based biomarker of disease progression

Primary skin fibroblasts as a model of Parkinson's disease

Parkinson's disease is the second most frequent neurodegenerative disorder. While most cases occur sporadic mutations in a growing number of genes including Parkin (PARK2) and PINK1 (PARK6) have been associated with the disease. Different animal models and cell models like patient skin fibroblasts and recombinant cell lines can be used as model systems for Parkinson's disease. Skin fibroblasts present a system with defined mutations and the cumulative cellular damage of the patients. PINK1 and Parkin genes show relevant expression levels in human fibroblasts and since both genes participate in stress response pathways, we believe fibroblasts advantageous in order to assess, e.g. the effect of stressors. Furthermore, since a bioenergetic deficit underlies early stage Parkinson's disease, while atrophy underlies later stages, the use of primary cells seems preferable over the use of tumor cell lines. The new option to use fibroblast-derived induced pluripotent stem cells redifferentiated into dopaminergic neurons is an additional benefit. However, the use of fibroblast has also some drawbacks. We have investigated PARK6 fibroblasts and they mirror closely the respiratory alterations, the expression profiles, the mitochondrial dynamics pathology and the vulnerability to proteasomal stress that has been documented in other model systems. Fibroblasts from patients with PARK2, PARK6, idiopathic Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, and spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 demonstrated a distinct and unique mRNA expression pattern of key genes in neurodegeneration. Thus, primary skin fibroblasts are a useful Parkinson's disease model, able to serve as a complement to animal mutants, transformed cell lines and patient tissues

Mammographic density and breast cancer risk in breast screening assessment cases and women with a family history of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Mammographic density has been shown to be a strong independent predictor of breast cancer and a causative factor in reducing the sensitivity of mammography. There remain questions as to the use of mammographic density information in the context of screening and risk management, and of the association with cancer in populations known to be at increased risk of breast cancer. AIM: To assess the association of breast density with presence of cancer by measuring mammographic density visually as a percentage, and with two automated volumetric methods, Quantra™ and VolparaDensity™. METHODS: The TOMosynthesis with digital MammographY (TOMMY) study of digital breast tomosynthesis in the Breast Screening Programme of the National Health Service (NHS) of the United Kingdom (UK) included 6020 breast screening assessment cases (of whom 1158 had breast cancer) and 1040 screened women with a family history of breast cancer (of whom two had breast cancer). We assessed the association of each measure with breast cancer risk in these populations at enhanced risk, using logistic regression adjusted for age and total breast volume as a surrogate for body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: All density measures showed a positive association with presence of cancer and all declined with age. The strongest effect was seen with Volpara absolute density, with a significant 3% (95% CI 1-5%) increase in risk per 10 cm3 of dense tissue. The effect of Volpara volumetric density on risk was stronger for large and grade 3 tumours. CONCLUSIONS: Automated absolute breast density is a predictor of breast cancer risk in populations at enhanced risk due to either positive mammographic findings or family history. In the screening context, density could be a trigger for more intensive imaging

Accuracy of Digital Breast Tomosynthesis for Depicting Breast Cancer Subgroups in a UK Retrospective Reading Study (TOMMY Trial)

Purpose To compare the diagnostic performance of two-dimensional (2D) mammography, 2D mammography plus digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT), and synthetic 2D mammography plus DBT in depicting malignant radiographic features. Materials and Methods In this multicenter, multireader, retrospective reading study (the TOMMY trial), after written informed consent was obtained, 8869 women (age range, 29–85 years; mean, 56 years) were recruited from July 2011 to March 2013 in an ethically approved study. From these women, a reading dataset of 7060 cases was randomly allocated for independent blinded review of (a) 2D mammography images, (b) 2D mammography plus DBT images, and (c) synthetic 2D mammography plus DBT images. Reviewers had no access to results of previous examinations. Overall sensitivities and specificities were calculated for younger women and those with dense breasts. Results Overall sensitivity was 87% for 2D mammography, 89% for 2D mammography plus DBT, and 88% for synthetic 2D mammography plus DBT. The addition of DBT was associated with a 34% increase in the odds of depicting cancer (odds ratio [OR] = 1.34, P = .06); however, this level did not achieve significance. For patients aged 50–59 years old, sensitivity was significantly higher (P = .01) for 2D mammography plus DBT than it was for 2D mammography. For those with breast density of 50% or more, sensitivity was 86% for 2D mammography compared with 93% for 2D mammography plus DBT (P = .03). Specificity was 57% for 2D mammography, 70% for 2D mammography plus DBT, and 72% for synthetic 2D mammography plusmDBT. Specificity was significantly higher than 2D mammography (P < .001in both cases) and was observed for all subgroups (P < .001 for all cases). Conclusion The addition of DBT increased the sensitivity of 2D mammography in patients with dense breasts and the specificity of 2D mammography for all subgroups. The use of synthetic 2D DBT demonstrated performance similar to that of standard 2D mammography with DBT. DBT is of potential benefit to screening programs, particularly in younger women with dense breasts. © RSNA, 2015The TOMMY Trial (a comparison of digital breast tomosynthesis with mammography in the UK Breast Screening Programme) was supported by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme.This is the final published version of the article. It was originally published in Radiology (Gilbert et al., Radiology, 2015, doi:10.1148/radiol.2015142566). The final version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1148/radiol.201514256

The mesenchymal stem cells in multiple sclerosis (MSCIMS) trial protocol and baseline cohort characteristics: an open-label pre-test: post-test study with blinded outcome assessments.

BACKGROUND: No treatments are currently available that slow, stop, or reverse disease progression in established multiple sclerosis (MS). The Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Multiple Sclerosis (MSCIMS) trial tests the safety and feasibility of treatment with a candidate cell-based therapy, and will inform the wider challenge of designing early phase clinical trials to evaluate putative neuroprotective therapies in progressive MS. Illustrated by the MSCIMS trial protocol, we describe a novel methodology based on detailed assessment of the anterior visual pathway as a model of wider disease processes--the "sentinel lesion approach". METHODS/DESIGN: MSCIMS is a phase IIA study of autologous mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) in secondary progressive MS. A pre-test : post-test design is used with healthy controls providing normative data for inter-session variability. Complementary eligibility criteria and outcomes are used to select participants with disease affecting the anterior visual pathway. RESULTS: Ten participants with MS and eight healthy controls were recruited between October 2008 and March 2009. Mesenchymal stem cells were successfully isolated, expanded and characterised in vitro for all participants in the treatment arm. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to determining the safety and feasibility of the intervention and informing design of future studies to address efficacy, MSCIMS adopts a novel strategy for testing neuroprotective agents in MS--the sentinel lesion approach--serving as proof of principle for its future wider applicability. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00395200).RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

The Poetics of Dissolution: The Representation of Maori Culture in Janet Frame's Fiction

This essay examines Janet Frame's early short story "The Lagoon", and argues that the story alludes to Maori experience, albeit tangentially, in a way which anticipates similar evocations in novels such as A State of Siege and The Carpathians. A close reading shows that cultural imperialism in Frame runs parallel to, or is a side-effect of, interpersonal appropriations. These, in turn, seem to be rooted in human beings' reluctance to accommodate otherness. Recurrently Janet Frame points to a model of cultural and interpersonal interaction which is detached from proprietorial forms of appropriation, but which entails nothing less than the dissolution of the ruling ego. Selfdissolution shall emerge in this reading as the key to a utopian state consisting of the total permeability between the self and the remainder of the world. In this state, transactions become reciprocal since the divisions between self and non-self no longer exist