Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on election day 2004, and then during the vote count we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices, and a stronger dollar under a George W. Bush presidency than under John Kerry. A similar Republican–Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush–Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican president raises equity valuations by 2–3 percent, and that since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have tended to raise bond yields

The Promise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has the potential to stimulate innovation in the design and use of prediction markets throughout the economy, and in the process to provide information that will benefit the private sector and government alike.Technology and Industry

Divorce and the Option Value of Marital Search

This work tests whether the introduction of divorce law changes the timing of marital search. Rational agents should adjust to the divorce risk by increasing the average search spell, whereas option value theory stresses the role of irreversible investments: in this case, the new exit option should result in shorter spells. Using a dynamic model of marital search, a new data set of retrospective individual Italian data, and two robust statistical specifications, we find strong evidence that the legal innovation actually lowered the age at marriage, thereby worsening the level of marital matching, and possibly reinforcing self-fulfilling prophecies of divorce

Drug-Coated Balloon Versus Plain Balloon Angioplasty for Hemodialysis Dysfunction: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Background: Both drug-coated balloon (DCB) angioplasty and conventional plain balloon angioplasty (PBA) can be implemented to treat hemodialysis dysfunction. The present study aims to compare the safety and efficacy of these 2 approaches by conducting a meta-analysis of available randomized controlled trials. Methods and Results: PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases were queried from establishment to January 2021. A total of 18 randomized controlled trials including 877 and 875 patients in the DCB and PBA groups, respectively, were included in the present meta-analysis. Target lesion primary patency, circuit patency, target lesion revascularization, and mortality were pooled. Odds ratios (ORs) were reported with 95% CIs. Publication bias was analyzed with funnel plot and Egger test. Target lesion primary patency was higher among patients who underwent DCB (OR, 2.93 [95% CI, 2.13-4.03], P\u3c0.001 at 6 months; OR, 2.47 [95% CI, 1.53-3.99], P\u3c0.001 at 1 year). Also, the DCB group had a higher dialysis circuit patency at 6 months (OR, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.56-3.77 [P\u3c0.001]) and 1 year (OR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.22-3.00 [P=0.005]). Compared with the PBA group, the DCB group had lower odds of target lesion revascularization during follow-up (OR, 0.43 [95% CI, 0.23-0.82], P=0.001 at 6 months; OR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.32-1.73], P=0.490 at 1 year). The OR of mortality was comparable between 2 groups at 6 months (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.42-3.33 [P=0.760]) and 1 year (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.58-1.48 [P=0.750]). Conclusions: Based on evidence from 18 randomized controlled trials, DCB angioplasty is superior to PBA in maintaining target lesion primary patency and circuit patency among patients with dialysis circuit stenosis. DCB angioplasty also reduces target lesion revascularization with a similar risk of mortality compared with PBA

Human subcortical brain asymmetries in 15,847 people worldwide reveal effects of age and sex

The two hemispheres of the human brain differ functionally and structurally. Despite over a century of research, the extent to which brain asymmetry is influenced by sex, handedness, age, and genetic factors is still controversial. Here we present the largest ever analysis of subcortical brain asymmetries, in a harmonized multi-site study using meta-analysis methods. Volumetric asymmetry of seven subcortical structures was assessed in 15,847 MRI scans from 52 datasets worldwide. There were sex differences in the asymmetry of the globus pallidus and putamen. Heritability estimates, derived from 1170 subjects belonging to 71 extended pedigrees, revealed that additive genetic factors influenced the asymmetry of these two structures and that of the hippocampus and thalamus. Handedness had no detectable effect on subcortical asymmetries, even in this unprecedented sample size, but the asymmetry of the putamen varied with age. Genetic drivers of asymmetry in the hippocampus, thalamus and basal ganglia may affect variability in human cognition, including susceptibility to psychiatric disorders

Novel genetic loci associated with hippocampal volume

The hippocampal formation is a brain structure integrally involved in episodic memory, spatial navigation, cognition and stress responsiveness. Structural abnormalities in hippocampal volume and shape are found in several common neuropsychiatric disorders. To identify the genetic underpinnings of hippocampal structure here we perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 33,536 individuals and discover six independent loci significantly associated with hippocampal volume, four of them novel. Of the novel loci, three lie within genes (ASTN2, DPP4 and MAST4) and one is found 200 kb upstream of SHH. A hippocampal subfield analysis shows that a locus within the MSRB3 gene shows evidence of a localized effect along the dentate gyrus, subiculum, CA1 and fissure. Further, we show that genetic variants associated with decreased hippocampal volume are also associated with increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (rg =-0.155). Our findings suggest novel biological pathways through which human genetic variation influences hippocampal volume and risk for neuropsychiatric illness

Regional, circuit and network heterogeneity of brain abnormalities in psychiatric disorders

The substantial individual heterogeneity that characterizes people with mental illness is often ignored by classical case-control research, which relies on group mean comparisons. Here we present a comprehensive, multiscale characterization of the heterogeneity of gray matter volume (GMV) differences in 1,294 cases diagnosed with one of six conditions (attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder, depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder and schizophrenia) and 1,465 matched controls. Normative models indicated that person-specific deviations from population expectations for regional GMV were highly heterogeneous, affecting the same area in <7% of people with the same diagnosis. However, these deviations were embedded within common functional circuits and networks in up to 56% of cases. The salience-ventral attention system was implicated transdiagnostically, with other systems selectively involved in depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. Phenotypic differences between cases assigned the same diagnosis may thus arise from the heterogeneous localization of specific regional deviations, whereas phenotypic similarities may be attributable to the dysfunction of common functional circuits and networks

One Last Puff? - Public Smoking Bans and Smoking Behavior

This paper investigates the short-term effects of public smoking bans on individual smoking behavior. In 2007 and 2008, state-level smoking bans were gradually introduced in all of Germany's sixteen federal states. We exploit this variation in the timing of state bans to identify the effect that smoke-free policies had on individuals' smoking propensity and smoking intensity. Using rich longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study, our difference-in-differences estimates show that the introduction of smoke-free legislation in Germany did not change average smoking behavior within the population. However, our estimates also point to important heterogeneous effects. Groups that go out more often, and hence are more exposed to the constraints of public smoking bans in everyday life, did adjust their smoking behavior. Specifically, we find that young, unmarried individuals, and those living in urban areas are groups that are both less likely to smoke and smoke less intensively following the introduction of public smoking bans. Furthermore, effects on individual smoking habits proved stronger in states that had more strict smoking bans. Public smoking bans, therefore, have important health benefits over and above the reduction in exposure of non-smokers to second-hand smoke that is their immediate and prime objective.Das vorliegende Papier untersucht anhand von Daten des Sozio-Oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) die kurzfristige Wirkung von öffentlichen Rauchverboten auf das Rauchverhalten in Deutschland. In den Jahren 2007 und 2008 wurden sukzessive Rauchverbote in allen sechzehn Bundesländern eingeführt. Diese zeitliche Variation erlaubt die Messung der Auswirkung von Rauchverboten auf die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Individuen zu rauchen sowie auf die Höhe ihres Zigarettenkonsums. Die Ergebnisse unserer Differenzen-in-Differenzen Schätzungen zeigen, dass die Verbote das durchschnittliche Rauchverhalten in der Bevölkerung insgesamt nicht beeinflussten. Doch finden wir relevante Effekte für Personengruppen, die traditionell häufiger ausgehen (jüngere Jahrgänge, unverheiratete Personen und Einwohner größerer Städte). Diese sind durch ihr häufigeres Ausgehverhalten den Beschränkungen von Rauchverboten im Alltag stärker ausgesetzt und weisen in Folge der Verbote niedrigere Wahrscheinlichkeiten auf, zu rauchen. Ferner finden sich Hinweise, dass sich striktere Rauchverbote stärker auf das Rauchverhalten auswirkten. Rauchverbote haben somit, neben ihrem eigentlichen Ziel, das Ausmaß des Passivrauchens im öffentlichen Raum zu reduzieren, eine wichtige und zusätzliche gesundheitsfördernde Wirkung