Reindustrialization as a Key Element of Ukraine's Recovery

In this policy brief, Brian Milakovsky argues that a key goal of Ukraine should be to pursue re-industrialisation through an effective programme of state aid and use of preferential trade and procurement policy. To achieve this, Ukraine’s allies should publicly indicate support for the steps that the government is taking in this direction, for example the recently announced “Made in Ukraine” suite of localization measures

A State-led War Economy in an Open Market: Investigating state-market relations in Ukraine 2021-2023

How the state is interacting with markets is a key consideration in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. A critical question concerns whether the state can develop the capacity to correct market failures in order to support the security and wellbeing of the population and answer the challenges of the on-going war. This research report seeks to address this question by investigating the relationship between market and state in the contemporary Ukrainian economy. The report is published as part of a collaborative partnership between Ukraine Industry Expertise and PeaceRep’s Ukraine programme. It builds upon previous work that demonstrated how Ukraine had a range of in-country assets that could be mobilised to ‘insource the recovery’ through the adoption of policies designed to support and maximise domestic output

War drives forest fire risks and highlights the need for more ecologically-sound forest management in post-war Ukraine

Since 24 February 2022, Ukraine has experienced full-scale military aggression initiated by the Russian Federation. The war has had a major negative impact on vegetation cover of war-affected regions. We explored interactions between pre-war forest management and the impacts of military activities in three of the most forested Ukrainian areas of interest (AOI), affected by the war. These were forests lying between Kharkiv and Luhansk cities (AOI 'East'), forests along the Dnipro River delta (AOI 'Kherson'), and those of the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone (AOI CEZ). We used Sentinel satellite imagery to create damaged forest cover masks for the year 2022. We mapped forests with elevated fire hazard, which was defined as a degree of exposure to the fire-supporting land use (mostly an agricultural land, a common source of ignitions in Ukraine). We evaluated the forest disturbance rate in 2022, as compared to pre-war rates. We documented significant increases in non-stand replacing disturbances (low severity fires and non-fire disturbances) for all three of the AOIs. Damaged forest cover varied among the AOIs (24,180 ± 4,715 ha, or 9.3% ± 1.8% in the 'East' AOI; 7,293 ± 1,925 ha, or 15.7% ± 4.1% in the 'Kherson' AOI; 7,116 ± 1,274 ha, or 5.0% ± 0.9% in the CEZ AOI). Among the forests damaged in 2022, the 'Kherson' AOI will likely have the highest proportion of an area with elevated fire hazard in the coming decades, as compared to other regions (89% vs. 70% in the 'East' and CEZ AOIs respectively). Future fire risks and extensive war-related disturbance of forest cover call for forest management to develop strategies explicitly addressing these factors

A state-led war economy in an open market: investigating state-market relations in Ukraine 2021-2023

How the state is interacting with markets is a key consideration in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. A critical question concerns whether the state can develop the capacity to correct market failures in order to support the security and wellbeing of the population and answer the challenges of the on-going war. This research report seeks to address this question by investigating the relationship between market and state in the contemporary Ukrainian economy. The report is published as part of a collaborative partnership between Ukraine Industry Expertise and PeaceRep’s Ukraine programme. It builds upon previous work that demonstrated how Ukraine had a range of in-country assets that could be mobilised to ‘insource the recovery’ through the adoption of policies designed to support and maximise domestic output

An der Grenze: Krieg und Industriekrise in der Oblast Luhansk

Die angespannte wirtschaftliche Situation der auf Schwerindustrie ausgerichteten Oblast Luhansk im Osten der Ukraine wurde durch den seit 2014 anhaltenden bewaffneten Konflikt im Donbas noch verschärft. Rund 80 Prozent des Territoriums sind von pro-russischen Separatisten besetzt und damit außerhalb der Kontrolle der ukrainischen Zentralregierung. Im Zuge der Kampfhandlungen, der Zerstörung von Infrastruktur und Fabriken sowie infolge einer 2017 verhängten Wirtschaftsblockade und dem faktischen Wegfall des russischen Marktes steht die Region vor immensen wirtschaftlichen und damit sozialen Herausforderungen. Für das von der ukrainischen Regierung kontrollierte Gebiet der Luhansker Oblast fehlt es an einer umfassenden Strategie zum Wiederaufbau und zur wirtschaftlichen Revitalisierung. In dieser schwierigen Situation finden sich kleine und mittlere Unternehmer besser zurecht, reagieren mit innovativen Lösungen und bieten Perspektiven für die von Krieg und Industriekrise geplagte Region

“Insourcing” the Recovery: Ukrainian manufacturers in reconstruction efforts

Materials required for the repair or replacement of Ukrainian housing and infrastructure damaged in the full-scale Russian invasion are estimated to cost $62.8 billion. Sourcing these materials from Ukrainian manufacturers with international funding would be a significant stimulus to recovery of Ukraine’s economy. This policy brief outlines the benefits and challenges of sourcing the required materials domestically. PeaceRep’s Ukraine programme is involved in providing analysis, evidence and data to prepare discussions at the London Ukraine Recovery Conference, 21 – 22 June 2023. As part of this work, this policy brief presents data from our collaborators, Ukraine Industry Expertise and US Aid Economic Resilience Activity