RoMod: A Dynamic CGE Model for Romania: a Tool for Policy Analysis

Romania's economic transition process went parallel with efforts aimed at obtaining the EU acquis for Romania's forthcoming EU membership in January 2007. It implies major institutional and economic changes that need to be considered with great care. The issues raised by the EU membership require a modern and powerful quantitative analytical tool. These issues can only be addressed in a consistent economy-wide framework given that the transition process produces innumerable, dynamic and complex interactions between economic agents and sectors. The general equilibrium model developed in this study, called RoMod, provides the tools necessary to answer several important questions raised by the EU membership. RoMod provides a consistent framework that can assist the Romanian policymakers in evaluating a wide range of fiscal-budgetary measures and contributes to the discussion on the socio-economic costs of regulatory adjustments in the field of taxation and the restructuring of public expenditures by providing an empirical, general equilibrium assessment, of several pre-accession policy scenarios. It also offers an analysis of the structural relationships among different economic agents, to improve the understanding of the Romanian economy

COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN EU MEMBER STATES: A SURVEY

The accession of twelve Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) to the European Union (in 2004 and 2007) has given rise to new challenges in evaluating the effects of integration, for both the old and the new member states. These issues can only be addressed in a consistent, economy-wide framework, given that the institutional and economic changes implied by the membership process produce numerous, dynamic and complex interactions between the economic agents and sectors. Applied general equilibrium offers such a framework. This paper reviews the existing computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for the Central and Eastern European EU member states.General equilibrium, EU, CEEC, integration

Measuring the impacts of personal and corporate income tax cuts on a small island open economy

In 1999, subsequent to a legislative review, the authorities of the Azores, an autonomous region of Portugal, decided to reduce income tax rates applicable locally by 30% in the case of corporate income and by 20% in the case of personal income. There was no debt or transfer compensation for this tax reduction, meaning that the regional budget was reduced by the equivalent amount of the tax reduction. The current paper analyses the impact of such a shock on various macro and micro variables pertaining to the Azorean economy, including social welfare, using a dynamic CGE model comprising forty five sectors, six household groups, three government levels and four trading partners. It is concluded that the short run impact on GDP is, as expected, negative, given that the marginal propensity to save of the private sector is positive and there was no compensating policy. There is an initial increase in unemployment due to the cut in government expenditures. In the long run, however, the impact becomes positive due to increased investment and private consumption. The stronger effect comes from the reduction in personal income taxes, a much greater proportion of all taxes collected in the region. Real wages net of personal income taxes rise as does the labour supply. The impact of the policy is shown to be positive for all household income groups, as evaluated through equivalent variation. The lowest income group ends up benefiting the most, in relative terms.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Azormod dynamic general equilibrium model for Azores

The main objective of this paper is to present a multi-sectoral, multi-regional dynamic modelling platform of the Azores economy integrated within the European and global context. The platform will have the highest capabilities of analysis and forecasting in Azores for problems related to structural sectoral and regional issues, agriculture, labour markets, public finance, trade, EU funds, regional development, environment, and energy. The modelling platform is intended to act as an analytical and quantitative support for policy-making.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Analysing the impacts of closure of a military base using a dynamic CGE model

Military bases are commonplace in many countries and may have a significant impact in the communities where they are integrated. Impacts of military bases have been analysed through different perspectives. Our aim is to analyse their economic impact. The importance of military bases has become a topic of discussion particularly when base closures or base activity reductions are under consideration. In a previous paper the authors looked at the issue using a static CGE model applied to the analysis of the economic impact of a US base located in the island of Terceira in the Azores. In the current paper a dynamic model is used to study the same issue, using more recent data and disaggregating the impact among different household categories. A base closure scenario is created and the impacts traced through various economic indicators. It is concluded that GDP falls, relative to the base scenario for a number of years recovering after some time, assuming that worsened trade balances are compensated by other transfers. This fall is prompted by a fall in employment, personal income and consumption. The model also predicts that the impact hurts different household income groups with diverse intensity. Lower income households are hurt more in relative terms but generate a smaller absolute impact. With time, the negative impact tapers off for most income groups except for the lowest which keeps on loosing more until the end of the simulation period.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Modeling Russia for Climate Change Issues

This paper presents the dynamic multi-sector general equilibrium model for the Russian Federation (RusMod) and carbon emission projections for Russia up to 2020.Projection results emphasise the importance of accomplishing strong energy efficiency gains, and their effect on the economy and on emissions of greenhouse gases. However, they also show that emissions can be expected to grow at a much higher rate if the efficiency improvements targeted by the government are not realised or when they stay behind compared to the 40% goal as it was set by president Medvedev. Model simulations also show that the introduction of a carbon price as a policy instrument can have a strong impact on the emissions, which comes at the expense of a decline in economic growth that is of a much more temporary nature.

Impacts of closure of a military base on a small island open economy

Military bases are commonplace in many countries. Their economic impact on the neighbouring communities depends on their location and the level of integration of their activities on the local economies. Base closures or base activity reductions are also frequent as a consequence of military strategy alterations. The current paper seeks to analyse the economic impact of a US base located in the island of Terceira in the Azores. The base has been an important element of economic life in this island since the end of WWII. The changing geo-strategic map of the world has, along the second half of the twentieth century, led to changing roles of this base and consequent changes in the intensity of its activity. On the other hand discussions over the importance of the base for the local economy are recurrent in an attempt, on the part of the participants, to set forth arguments in favour or against the presence of military forces in the location. The current paper tries to contribute with a quantification of the economic impact of the base using a dynamic CGE model of the Azorean economy. A closure scenario is created and the impacts traced through various economic indicators including some sector detail. Estimates are made for the overall impact and for the impact on the island that houses the base

A computable general equilibrium modeling platform for the azorean economy : a simple approach with international trade

Computable general equilibrium models have become commonplace instruments of economic policy analysis in many developed countries. These models have gained increased acceptance due to their capacity to address many policy questions in a simple way, using now commonly available databases on the structure of production in the form of input-output matrices, while retaining traditional economic assumptions for household, firm and government behaviour, among others such as trade. In this paper we lay –out the model for application to the Azorean economy. The model contemplates households, firms, government, and trade. It is calibrated using a SAM built from a 1998 I-O table with all information updated to 2001. The impact of changes in trade is analysed

Modeling Russia for Climate Change Issues

This paper presents the dynamic multi-sector general equilibrium model for the Russian Federation (RusMod) and carbon emission projections for Russia up to 2020. Projection results emphasise the importance of accomplishing strong energy efficiency gains, and their effect on the economy and on emissions of greenhouse gases. However, they also show that emissions can be expected to grow at a much higher rate if the efficiency improvements targeted by the government are not realised or when they stay behind compared to the 40% goal as it was set by president Medvedev. Model simulations also show that the introduction of a carbon price as a policy instrument can have a strong impact on the emissions, which comes at the expense of a decline in economic growth that is of a much more temporary nature

"I Was on Top of the World, Then ... Nothing ... And Today I am Many Things:" Retirement Stories of Former Elite Female Athletes

This narrative research explores elite women athletes’ retirement experiences, to answer the following questions: How did the athletes experience their athletic lives? How did the athletes experience their retirement? What supported and/or hindered the athletes’ transition out of elite sport? How do female athletes create new meanings and re-story their lives? Being an elite athlete requires a lot of commitment and sacrifices from a fairly young age. Due to the extended involvement in sports, athletes build their identity around their sport and are often ill prepared for life-after-sport. Consequently, retirement from elite sport has caught the attention of researchers who have studied it from different perspectives. The post-positivist research has examined the causes and consequences of sport retirement, the quality of life and life satisfaction after sport, the factors that influence the quality of transition, the body image, physical self, or global self-esteem (Erpic et al., 2004; Price et al., 2010; Smith & McManus, 2008; Stephan & Bilard, 2003; Stephan et al., 2003a; Wylleman et al., 2004). The interpretive research around retirement from elite sport has included personal experiences and how people make sense of their experiences within their contexts (Barker-Ruchti & Schubring, 2016; Carless & Douglas, 2009, 2012; Cavallerio et al., 2017; Douglas & Carless, 2009; Kerr et al., 2020). More specifically, interpretive narrative researchers have used predetermined narratives (e.g., performance narrative) to understand the retired athletes’ experiences. In addition, the post-structuralist research on sport retirement has explored the power relations within the sporting context to explain the retirement experiences (Barker-Ruchti et al., 2012; Jones & Denison, 2017). Existing research, however, has revealed that retiring elite athletes could face significant challenges to their physical, psychological, social, and occupational well-being, possibly struggling with a loss of identity, depression, and even self-harm or suicide. While there are a number of narrative studies that have explored the retirement experiences, I also chose to pursue a narrative study. Congruent with the interpretive approach, I focused on the individual athletes’ stories. Expanding from the previous sport narrative research, I examined athletes’ stories during their athletic lifespan and after retirement. I drew on a combination of a more traditional narrative approach and narrative inquiry (Clandinin & al., 2007) to explore 10 women athletes’ stories. My interviewees were over 18 years of age, English speakers, competed at national/international levels in different sports (both individual and team sports), and were at least two years into their retirement. In addition to the ten stories of retired athletes, I, as a former elite athlete, included my own story. Through my reflective thematic analysis, I constructed three overarching themes based in the participants’ stories: Life as an Elite Athlete, Life After Elite Sport, and Living a Regular Life. My analysis of the first theme revealed that the retired athletes told very similar stories about their athletic lives: they were very dedicated to their sports that they loved unconditionally despite experiencing injuries, eating disorders and ‘cut-throat’ competition. When I analyzed the second theme, I found that the retirement experiences were all unique. Seven participants perceived their transition to be quite smooth, while three participants experienced a difficult retirement with periods of intense struggles. My analysis of the final theme, Living a Regular Life, revealed that most of the former athletes had found new meanings in their lives, that included family, education, or career. The retired athletes also identified certain skills, such as time management and perfectionism, that were helpful during their athletic lives, but did not transfer well in life-after-sport. They further suggested that hearing other former athletes’ stories and having connections with other former athletes would have been beneficial for a positive transition out of elite sport. My lifespan analysis, thus, revealed that the athletes’ retirement stories were complex and unlinear: a positive athletic life did not necessarily convert into a smooth retirement experience or vice versa. My narrative study expanded the previous research by demonstrating the importance of examining the entire athletic lifespan to reveal the complexities of women athletes’ retirement experiences. This allowed me to move beyond focusing on a single aspect of retirement experience, or one narrative framing (e.g., performance narrative), to obtain a more holistic understanding of elite athletes’ retirement as a process