Predicting new venture survival and growth: does the fog lift?

This paper investigates whether new venture performance becomes easier to predict as the venture ages: does the fog lift? To address this question we primarily draw upon a theoretical framework, initially formulated in a managerial context by Levinthal (Adm Sci Q 36(3):397–420, 1991) that sees new venture sales as a random walk but survival being determined by the stock of available resources (proxied by size). We derive theoretical predictions that are tested with a 10-year cohort of 6579 UK new ventures in the UK. We observe that our ability to predict firm growth deteriorates in the years after entry—in terms of the selection environment, the ‘fog’ seems to thicken. However, our survival predictions improve with time—implying that the ‘fog’ does lift

Effect of variable transmission rate on the dynamics of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The cause of the high HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa is incompletely understood, with heterosexual penile-vaginal transmission proposed as the main mechanism. Heterosexual HIV transmission has been estimated to have a very low probability; but effects of cofactors that vary in space and time may substantially alter this pattern.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To test the effect of individual variation in the HIV infectiousness generated by co-infection, we developed and analyzed a mathematical sexual network model that simulates the behavioral components of a population from Malawi, as well as the dynamics of HIV and the co-infection effect caused by other infectious diseases, including herpes simplex virus type-2, gonorrhea, syphilis and malaria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analysis shows that without the amplification effect caused by co-infection, no epidemic is generated, and HIV prevalence decreases to extinction. But the model indicates that an epidemic can be generated by the amplification effect on HIV transmission caused by co-infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The simulated sexual network demonstrated that a single value for HIV infectivity fails to describe the dynamics of the epidemic. Regardless of the low probability of heterosexual transmission per sexual contact, the inclusion of individual variation generated by transient but repeated increases in HIV viral load associated with co-infections may provide a biological basis for the accelerated spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, our work raises the possibility that the natural history of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa cannot be fully understood if individual variation in infectiousness is neglected.</p

Epigenetic expansion of VHL-HIF signal output drives multiorgan metastasis in renal cancer.

Inactivation of the von Hippel-Lindau tumor suppressor gene, VHL, is an archetypical tumor-initiating event in clear cell renal carcinoma (ccRCC) that leads to the activation of hypoxia-inducible transcription factors (HIFs). However, VHL mutation status in ccRCC is not correlated with clinical outcome. Here we show that during ccRCC progression, cancer cells exploit diverse epigenetic alterations to empower a branch of the VHL-HIF pathway for metastasis, and the strength of this activation is associated with poor clinical outcome. By analyzing metastatic subpopulations of VHL-deficient ccRCC cells, we discovered an epigenetically altered VHL-HIF response that is specific to metastatic ccRCC. Focusing on the two most prominent pro-metastatic VHL-HIF target genes, we show that loss of Polycomb repressive complex 2 (PRC2)-dependent histone H3 Lys27 trimethylation (H3K27me3) activates HIF-driven chemokine (C-X-C motif) receptor 4 (CXCR4) expression in support of chemotactic cell invasion, whereas loss of DNA methylation enables HIF-driven cytohesin 1 interacting protein (CYTIP) expression to protect cancer cells from death cytokine signals. Thus, metastasis in ccRCC is based on an epigenetically expanded output of the tumor-initiating pathway

HIF-1 Regulates Iron Homeostasis in Caenorhabditis elegans by Activation and Inhibition of Genes Involved in Iron Uptake and Storage

Caenorhabditis elegans ftn-1 and ftn-2, which encode the iron-storage protein ferritin, are transcriptionally inhibited during iron deficiency in intestine. Intestinal specific transcription is dependent on binding of ELT-2 to GATA binding sites in an iron-dependent enhancer (IDE) located in ftn-1 and ftn-2 promoters, but the mechanism for iron regulation is unknown. Here, we identify HIF-1 (hypoxia-inducible factor -1) as a negative regulator of ferritin transcription. HIF-1 binds to hypoxia-response elements (HREs) in the IDE in vitro and in vivo. Depletion of hif-1 by RNA interference blocks transcriptional inhibition of ftn-1 and ftn-2 reporters, and ftn-1 and ftn-2 mRNAs are not regulated in a hif-1 null strain during iron deficiency. An IDE is also present in smf-3 encoding a protein homologous to mammalian divalent metal transporter-1. Unlike the ftn-1 IDE, the smf-3 IDE is required for HIF-1–dependent transcriptional activation of smf-3 during iron deficiency. We show that hif-1 null worms grown under iron limiting conditions are developmentally delayed and that depletion of FTN-1 and FTN-2 rescues this phenotype. These data show that HIF-1 regulates intestinal iron homeostasis during iron deficiency by activating and inhibiting genes involved in iron uptake and storage

Male, National, and Religious Collective Narcissism Predict Sexism

Results of three cross-sectional studies indicate that sexism in Poland is associated with collective narcissism—a belief that one’s own group’s (the in-group’s) exaggerated exceptionality is not sufficiently recognized by others—with reference to three social identities: male, religious, and national. In Study 1 (n = 329), male collective narcissism was associated with sexism. This relationship was sequentially mediated by precarious manhood and traditional gender beliefs. In Study 2 (n = 877), Catholic collective narcissism predicted tolerance of violence against women (among men and women) over and above religious fundamentalism and in contrast to intrinsic religiosity. In Study 3 (n = 1070), national collective narcissism was associated with hostile sexism among men and women and with benevolent sexism more strongly among women than among men. In contrast, national in-group satisfaction—a belief that the nation is of a high value—predicted rejection of benevolent and hostile sexism among women but was positively associated with hostile and benevolent sexism among men. Among men and women collective narcissism was associated with tolerance of domestic violence against women, whereas national in-group satisfaction was associated with rejection of violence against women

Characteristics of HIV-1 Discordant Couples Enrolled in a Trial of HSV-2 Suppression to Reduce HIV-1 Transmission: The Partners Study

Background: The Partners HSV-2/HIV-1 Transmission Study (Partners Study) is a phase III, placebo-controlled trial of daily acyclovir for genital herpes (HSV-2) suppression among HIV-1/HSV-2 co-infected persons to reduce HIV-1 transmission to their HIV-1 susceptible partners, which requires recruitment of HIV-1 serodiscordant heterosexual couples. We describe the baseline characteristics of this cohort. Methods: HIV-1 serodiscordant heterosexual couples, in which the HIV-1 infected partner was HSV-2 seropositive, had a CD4 count ≥250 cells/mcL and was not on antiretroviral therapy, were enrolled at 14 sites in East and Southern Africa. Demographic, behavioral, clinical and laboratory characteristics were assessed. Results: Of the 3408 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples enrolled, 67% of the HIV-1 infected partners were women. Couples had cohabitated for a median of 5 years (range 2–9) with 28% reporting unprotected sex in the month prior to enrollment. Among HIV-1 susceptible participants, 86% of women and 59% of men were HSV-2 seropositive. Other laboratory-diagnosed sexually transmitted infections were uncommon (500 relative to <350, respectively, p<0.001). Conclusions: The Partners Study successfully enrolled a cohort of 3408 heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Africa at high risk for HIV-1 transmission. Follow-up of this cohort will evaluate the efficacy of acyclovir for HSV-2 suppression in preventing HIV-1 transmission and provide insights into biological and behavioral factors determining heterosexual HIV-1 transmission. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0019451