Fuel poverty, older people and cold weather: An all-island analysis

Executive Summary This report covers a number of different aspects of fuel poverty and older people. 1. An exploration of existing government survey data from Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland with a particular focus on older people and conducting additional targeted analyses where required. 2. An original survey in the Republic of Ireland exploring the lived experience of older people in cold weather. 3. A feasibility study of data logging thermometers placed in the homes of older tenants in local authority accommodation. 4. Analysis of excess winter mortality among older people including a consideration of differences between the two jurisdictions. Older people on the island of Ireland, as in many other countries, experience a ‘dual burden’ in terms of fuel poverty. They are more likely to experience fuel poverty and are also particularly vulnerable to health and social harm as a result of this experience. The numbers of older people vulnerable to ill-effects from cold homes will rise as numbers of people aged 80 and over, and those living with chronic illness or disability, increase. There were significant differences observed between expenditure-based, and subjective (EU-SILC) based fuel poverty indicators, for older people, and between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland data. This data required careful interpretation. The higher levels of fuel poverty recorded for older people on the island of Ireland appeared to be driven by all aspects of the fuel poverty model - poor housing condition, energy inefficient housing, rising fuel prices and low income. The majority of older people live in their own home and these homes tend to be older properties which are detached or semi-detached. Older people on the island are over-represented among houses which are in poor condition and which lack central heating in both jurisdictions. Lacking central heating was a more common experience for older people in the Republic of Ireland than in Northern Ireland. Data on energy efficiency measures were not comparable North/South but similar patterns were observed. Older people were less likely than the general population to have attic/loft or wall insulation or double glazing. Older people were also vulnerable from an income point of view. This would seem to be a particular issue in Northern Ireland where rates of income poverty are significantly increasing. In both jurisdictions older people were heavily reliant on social transfers to keep them out of poverty. Coupled with this, there is evidence that many older people are not claiming their full entitlements. Oil dependency was a particular issue in Northern Ireland. Very significant increases were observed in the price of heating oil, as well as electricity and gas in recent years. There was little available research evidence on the relationship between the older consumer and heating oil suppliers

How Well Can You Tailor the Charge of Lipid Vesicles?

Knowledge and control of surface charge or potential is important for tailoring colloidal interactions. In this work, we compare widely used zeta potential (ζ) measurements of charged lipid vesicle surface potential to direct measurements using the surface force apparatus (SFA). Our measurements show good agreement between the two techniques. On varying the fraction of anionic lipids dimyristoylphosphatidylserine (DMPS) or dimyristoylphosphatidylglycerol (DMPG) mixed with zwitterionic dimyristoylphosphatidylcholine (DMPC) from 0 to 100 mol % we observed a near-linear increase in membrane surface charge or potential up to 20-30 mol % charged lipids beyond which charge saturation occurred in physiological (high) salt conditions. Similarly, in low salt concentrations, a linear increase in charge/potential was found but only up to ∼5-10 mol % charged lipids beyond which the surface charge or potential leveled off. While a lower degree of ionization is expected due to the lower dielectric constant (ε ∼ 4) of the lipid acyl chain environment, increasing intramembrane electrostatic repulsion between neighboring charged lipid head groups at higher charge loading contributes to charge suppression. Measured potentials in physiological salt solutions were consistent with predictions using the Gouy-Chapman-Stern-Grahame (GCSG) model of the electrical double layer with Langmuir binding of counterions, but in low salt conditions, the model significantly overestimated the surface charge/potential. The much lower ionization in low salt (maximum ∼1-2% of total lipids ionized) instead was consistent with counterion condensation at the bilayer surface which limited the charge that could be obtained. The strong interplay between membrane composition, lipid headgroup ionization, electrolyte concentration, and solution pH complicates exact prediction and tuning of membrane surface charge for applications. However, the theoretical frameworks used here can provide guidelines to understand this interplay and establish a range of achievable potentials for a system and predict the response to triggers like pH and salt concentration changes

How close are time series to power tail L\'evy diffusions?

This article presents a new and easily implementable method to quantify the so-called coupling distance between the law of a time series and the law of a differential equation driven by Markovian additive jump noise with heavy-tailed jumps, such as $\alpha$-stable L\'evy flights. Coupling distances measure the proximity of the empirical law of the tails of the jump increments and a given power law distribution. In particular they yield an upper bound for the distance of the respective laws on path space. We prove rates of convergence comparable to the rates of the central limit theorem which are confirmed by numerical simulations. Our method applied to a paleoclimate time series of glacial climate variability confirms its heavy tail behavior. In addition this approach gives evidence for heavy tails in data sets of precipitable water vapor of the Western Tropical Pacific.Comment: 30 pages, 10 figure

Trust economics feasibility study

We believe that enterprises and other organisations currently lack sophisticated methods and tools to determine if and how IT changes should be introduced in an organisation, such that objective, measurable goals are met. This is especially true when dealing with security-related IT decisions. We report on a feasibility study, Trust Economics, conducted to demonstrate that such methodology can be developed. Assuming a deep understanding of the IT involved, the main components of our trust economics approach are: (i) assess the economic or financial impact of IT security solutions; (ii) determine how humans interact with or respond to IT security solutions; (iii) based on above, use probabilistic and stochastic modelling tools to analyse the consequences of IT security decisions. In the feasibility study we apply the trust economics methodology to address how enterprises should protect themselves against accidental or malicious misuse of USB memory sticks, an acute problem in many industries

Transport in time-dependent dynamical systems: Finite-time coherent sets

We study the transport properties of nonautonomous chaotic dynamical systems over a finite time duration. We are particularly interested in those regions that remain coherent and relatively non-dispersive over finite periods of time, despite the chaotic nature of the system. We develop a novel probabilistic methodology based upon transfer operators that automatically detects maximally coherent sets. The approach is very simple to implement, requiring only singular vector computations of a matrix of transitions induced by the dynamics. We illustrate our new methodology on an idealized stratospheric flow and in two and three dimensional analyses of European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis data

The mass of the b-quark from lattice NRQCD and lattice perturbation theory

We present a determination of the b-quark mass accurate through O(\alpha_s^2) in perturbation theory and including partial contributions at O(\alpha_s^3). Nonperturbative input comes from the calculation of the Upsilon and B_s energies in lattice QCD including the effect of u, d and s sea quarks. We use an improved NRQCD action for the b-quark. This is combined with the heavy quark energy shift in NRQCD determined using a mixed approach of high-beta simulation and automated lattice perturbation theory. Comparison with experiment enables the quark mass to be extracted: in the MS bar scheme we find m_b(m_b) = 4.166(43) GeV.Comment: v2 - corrected some typos and an error in the summary plo

cDNA-RNA subtractive hybridization reveals increased expression of mycocerosic acid synthase in intracellular Mycobacterium bovis BCG.

Identifying genes that are differentially expressed by Mycobacterium bovis BCG after phagocytosis by macrophages will facilitate the understanding of the molecular mechanisms of host cell-intracellular pathogen interactions. To identify such genes a cDNA-total RNA subtractive hybridization strategy has been used that circumvents the problems both of limited availability of bacterial RNA from models of infection and the high rRNA backgrounds in total bacterial RNA. The subtraction products were used to screen a high-density gridded Mycobacterium tuberculosis genomic library. Sequence data were obtained from 19 differential clones, five of which contained overlapping sequences for the gene encoding mycocerosic acid synthase (mas). Mas is an enzyme involved in the synthesis of multi-methylated long-chain fatty acids that are part of phthiocerol dimycocerosate, a major component of the complex mycobacterial cell wall. Northern blotting and primer extension data confirmed up-regulation of mas in intracellular mycobacteria and also revealed a putative extended -10 promoter structure and a long untranslated upstream region 5' of the mas transcripts, containing predicted double-stranded structures. Furthermore, clones containing overlapping sequences for furB, groEL-2, rplE and fadD28 were identified and the up-regulation of these genes was confirmed by Northern blot analysis. The cDNA-RNA subtractive hybridization enrichment and high density gridded library screening, combined with selective extraction of bacterial mRNA represents a valuable approach to the identification of genes expressed during intra-macrophage residence for bacteria such as M. bovis BCG and the pathogenic mycobacterium, M. tuberculosis