Body size but not warning signal luminance influences predation risk in recently metamorphosed poison frogs.

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.During early development, many aposematic species have bright and conspicuous warning appearance, but have yet to acquire chemical defenses, a phenotypic state which presumably makes them vulnerable to predation. Body size and signal luminance in particular are known to be sensitive to variation in early nutrition. However, the relative importance of these traits as determinants of predation risk in juveniles is not known. To address this question, we utilized computer-assisted design (CAD) and information on putative predator visual sensitivities to produce artificial models of postmetamorphic froglets that varied in terms of body size and signal luminance. We then deployed the artificial models in the field and measured rates of attack by birds and unknown predators. Our results indicate that body size was a significant predictor of artificial prey survival. Rates of attack by bird predators were significantly higher on smaller models. However, predation by birds did not differ between artificial models of varying signal luminance. This suggests that at the completion of metamorphosis, smaller froglets may be at a selective disadvantage, potentially because predators can discern they have relatively low levels of chemical defense compared to larger froglets. There is likely to be a premium on efficient foraging, giving rise to rapid growth and the acquisition of toxins from dietary sources in juvenile poison frogs.This study was supported by a PhD scholarship (IFARHU-SENACYT program) and a research grant No. APY-NI-010-006B/ SENACYT both awarded to EEF by the Government of Panama, and by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship to JDB. MS was supported by a Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council David Phillips Research Fellowship (BB/G022887/1). HMR was supported by a Junior Research Fellowship from Churchill College, Cambridge. Special thanks to Rachel Page at STRI for supporting EEF with the grant application, Sistema Nacional de Investigacion de Panama (SNI), and the People of Santa Fe for their collaboration during the stud

Quantitative measure of evolution of bright cluster galaxies at moderate redshifts

Using archival data from the Hubble Space Telescope, we study the quantitative morphological evolution of spectroscopically confirmed bright galaxies in the core regions of nine clusters ranging in redshift from $z = 0.31$ to $z = 0.84$. We use morphological parameters derived from two dimensional bulge-disk decomposition to study the evolution. We find an increase in the mean bulge-to-total luminosity ratio $B/T$ as the Universe evolves. We also find a corresponding increase in the fraction of early type galaxies and in the mean S\'ersic index. We discuss these results and their implications to physical mechanisms for evolution of galaxy morphology.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS: Letter

Accuracy of diabetes screening methods used for people with tuberculosis, Indonesia, Peru, Romania, South Africa

Objective To evaluate the performance of diagnostic tools for diabetes mellitus, including laboratory methods and clinical risk scores, in newly-diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis patients from four middle-income countries. Methods In a multicentre, prospective study, we recruited 2185 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis from sites in Indonesia, Peru, Romania and South Africa from January 2014 to September 2016. Using laboratory-measured glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) as the gold standard, we measured the diagnostic accuracy of random plasma glucose, point-of-care HbA1c, fasting blood glucose, urine dipstick, published and newly derived diabetes mellitus risk scores and anthropometric measurements. We also analysed combinations of tests, including a two-step test using point-of-care HbA1cwhen initial random plasma glucose was ≥ 6.1 mmol/L. Findings The overall crude prevalence of diabetes mellitus among newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients was 283/2185 (13.0%; 95% confidence interval, CI: 11.6–14.4). The marker with the best diagnostic accuracy was point-of-care HbA1c (area under receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.75–0.86). A risk score derived using age, point-of-care HbA1c and random plasma glucose had the best overall diagnostic accuracy (area under curve: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.81–0.90). There was substantial heterogeneity between sites for all markers, but the two-step combination test performed well in Indonesia and Peru. Conclusion Random plasma glucose followed by point-of-care HbA1c testing can accurately diagnose diabetes in tuberculosis patients, particularly those with substantial hyperglycaemia, while reducing the need for more expensive point-of-care HbA1c testing. Risk scores with or without biochemical data may be useful but require validation

Appetite suppressants and valvular heart disease - a systematic review

Background Although appetite suppressants have been implicated in the development of valvular heart disease, the exact level of risk is still uncertain. Initial studies suggested that as many as 1 in 3 exposed patients were affected, but subsequent research has yielded substantially different figures. Our objective was to systematically assess the risk of valvular heart disease with appetite suppressants. Methods We accepted studies involving obese patients treated with any of the following appetite suppressants: fenfluramine, dexfenfluramine, and phentermine. Three types of studies were reviewed: controlled and uncontrolled observational studies, and randomized controlled trials. Outcomes of interest were echocardiographically detectable aortic regurgitation of mild or greater severity, or mitral regurgitation of moderate or greater severity. Results Of the 1279 patients evaluated in seven uncontrolled cohort studies, 236 (18%) and 60 (5%) were found to have aortic and mitral regurgitation, respectively. Pooled data from six controlled cohort studies yielded, for aortic regurgitation, a relative risk ratio of 2.32 (95% confidence intervals 1.79 to 3.01, p < 0.00001) and an attributable rate of 4.9%, and for mitral regurgitation, a relative risk ratio of 1.55 (95% confidence intervals 1.06 to 2.25, p = 0.02) with an attributable rate of 1.0%. Only one case of valvular heart disease was detected in 57 randomized controlled trials, but this was judged unrelated to drug therapy. Conclusions The risk of valvular heart disease is significantly increased by the appetite suppressants reviewed here. Nevertheless, when considering all the evidence, valvulopathy is much less common than suggested by the initial, less methodologically rigorous studies

Use of a Semi-field System to Evaluate the Efficacy of Topical Repellents under user Conditions Provides a Disease Exposure free Technique Comparable with Field Data.

Before topical repellents can be employed as interventions against arthropod bites, their efficacy must be established. Currently, laboratory or field tests, using human volunteers, are the main methods used for assessing the efficacy of topical repellents. However, laboratory tests are not representative of real life conditions under which repellents are used and field-testing potentially exposes human volunteers to disease. There is, therefore, a need to develop methods to test efficacy of repellents under real life conditions while minimizing volunteer exposure to disease. A lotion-based, 15% N, N-Diethyl-3-methylbenzamide (DEET) repellent and 15% DEET in ethanol were compared to a placebo lotion in a 200 sq m (10 m x 20 m) semi-field system (SFS) against laboratory-reared Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes and in full field settings against wild malaria vectors and nuisance-biting mosquitoes. The average percentage protection against biting mosquitoes over four hours in the SFS and field setting was determined. A Poisson regression model was then used to determine relative risk of being bitten when wearing either of these repellents compared to the placebo. Average percentage protection of the lotion-based 15% DEET repellent after four hours of mosquito collection was 82.13% (95% CI 75.94-88.82) in the semi-field experiments and 85.10% (95% CI 78.97-91.70) in the field experiments. Average percentage protection of 15% DEET in ethanol after four hours was 71.29% (CI 61.77-82.28) in the semi-field system and 88.24% (84.45-92.20) in the field. Semi-field evaluation results were comparable to full-field evaluations, indicating that such systems could be satisfactorily used in measuring efficacy of topically applied mosquito repellents, thereby avoiding risks of exposure to mosquito-borne pathogens, associated with field testing

Ripple modulated electronic structure of a 3D topological insulator

3D topological insulators, similar to the Dirac material graphene, host linearly dispersing states with unique properties and a strong potential for applications. A key, missing element in realizing some of the more exotic states in topological insulators is the ability to manipulate local electronic properties. Analogy with graphene suggests a possible avenue via a topographic route by the formation of superlattice structures such as a moir\'e patterns or ripples, which can induce controlled potential variations. However, while the charge and lattice degrees of freedom are intimately coupled in graphene, it is not clear a priori how a physical buckling or ripples might influence the electronic structure of topological insulators. Here we use Fourier transform scanning tunneling spectroscopy to determine the effects of a one-dimensional periodic buckling on the electronic properties of Bi2Te3. By tracking the spatial variations of the scattering vector of the interference patterns as well as features associated with bulk density of states, we show that the buckling creates a periodic potential modulation, which in turn modulates the surface and the bulk states. The strong correlation between the topographic ripples and electronic structure indicates that while doping alone is insufficient to create predetermined potential landscapes, creating ripples provides a path to controlling the potential seen by the Dirac electrons on a local scale. Such rippled features may be engineered by strain in thin films and may find use in future applications of topological insulators.Comment: Nature Communications (accepted

The Influence of Physiological Status on age Prediction of Anopheles Arabiensis Using Near Infra-red spectroscopy

Determining the age of malaria vectors is essential for evaluating the impact of interventions that reduce the survival of wild mosquito populations and for estimating changes in vectorial capacity. Near infra-red spectroscopy (NIRS) is a simple and non-destructive method that has been used to determine the age and species of Anopheles gambiae s.l. by analyzing differences in absorption spectra. The spectra are affected by biochemical changes that occur during the life of a mosquito and could be influenced by senescence and also the life history of the mosquito, i.e., mating, blood feeding and egg-laying events. To better understand these changes, we evaluated the influence of mosquito physiological status on NIR energy absorption spectra. Mosquitoes were kept in individual cups to permit record keeping of each individual insect’s life history. Mosquitoes of the same chronological age, but at different physiological stages, were scanned and compared using cross-validations. We observed a slight trend within some physiological stages that suggest older insects tend to be predicted as being physiologically more mature. It was advantageous to include mosquitoes of different chronological ages and physiological stages in calibrations, as it increases the robustness of the model resulting in better age predictions. Progression through different physiological statuses of An. arabiensis influences the chronological age prediction by the NIRS. Entomologists that wish to use NIR technology to predict the age of field-caught An. gambiae s.l from their study area should use a calibration developed from their field strain using mosquitoes of diverse chronological ages and physiological stages to increase the robustness and accuracy of the predictions.\u

Paying for free delivery: dependent self-employment as a measure of precarity in parcel delivery

This article explores supply chain pressures in parcel delivery and how the drive to contain costs to ‘preserve value in motion’, including the costs of failed delivery, underpins contractual differentiation. It focuses on owner-drivers and home couriers paid by delivery. It considers precarity through the lens of the labour process, while locating it within the supply chain, political economy and ‘instituted economic process’ that define it. Focus on the labour process shows how ‘self-employment’ is used to remove so-called ‘unproductive’ time from the remit of paid labour. Using Smith’s concept of double indeterminacy the article captures the dynamic relationship between those on standard and non-standard contracts and interdependency of effort power and mobility power. It exposes the apparent mobility and autonomy of dependent selfemployed drivers while suggesting that their presence, alongside the increased use of technology, reconfigures the work-effort bargain across contractual status

Enteric dysbiosis and fecal calprotectin expression in premature infants.

BackgroundPremature infants often develop enteric dysbiosis with a preponderance of Gammaproteobacteria, which has been related to adverse clinical outcomes. We investigated the relationship between increasing fecal Gammaproteobacteria and mucosal inflammation, measured by fecal calprotectin (FC).MethodsStool samples were collected from very-low-birth weight (VLBW) infants at ≤2, 3, and 4 weeks' postnatal age. Fecal microbiome was surveyed using polymerase chain reaction amplification of the V4 region of 16S ribosomal RNA, and FC was measured by enzyme immunoassay.ResultsWe enrolled 45 VLBW infants (gestation 27.9 ± 2.2 weeks, birth weight 1126 ± 208 g) and obtained stool samples at 9.9 ± 3, 20.7 ± 4.1, and 29.4 ± 4.9 days. FC was positively correlated with the genus Klebsiella (r = 0.207, p = 0.034) and its dominant amplicon sequence variant (r = 0.290, p = 0.003), but not with the relative abundance of total Gammaproteobacteria. Klebsiella colonized the gut in two distinct patterns: some infants started with low Klebsiella abundance and gained these bacteria over time, whereas others began with very high Klebsiella abundance.ConclusionIn premature infants, FC correlated with relative abundance of a specific pathobiont, Klebsiella, and not with that of the class Gammaproteobacteria. These findings indicate a need to define dysbiosis at genera or higher levels of resolution

Coalbed Methane Development in Indonesia: Design and Economic Analysis of Upstream Petroleum Fiscal Policy

Due to increasing demand for natural gas in Indonesia, the Government now promotes exploration for coalbed methane (CBM). Currently, Indonesia has 453 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of CBM reserves. However, CBM development in the country is still in the exploration phase, with significant under-investment. To attract investors, a tailored Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) regime is required. Based on a combination of Factor Analysis (FA), Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) and Parameter Sensitivity Analysis, the research explores an optimal scenario of a company’s share of revenue that optimised CBM development contracts. We find that a combination of 5 years straight line depreciation (SLD), 5% First Tranche Petroleum (FTP), 78% Contractor Share (CS) and 35% income tax best spreads the risk of CBM development and exploitation between the government and the contractor. This combination is a more suitable PSC regime for developing CBM in an early stage of the industry. Therefore, the Government must cede some taxes during exploration to incentivise CBM development. Three PSCs regimes are thus required to fully develop and exploit CBM, including exploration, transitional and exploitation phase PSCs which better match contractor risks and returns and ensure reasonable certainty of contractor cost recovery