Assessment of impacts of climate change on water resources ? a case study of the Great Lakes of North America

International audienceHistorical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes are examined using regression analysis and Mann-Kendall statistics, with the result that many of these variables demonstrate statistically significant increases ongoing for a six decade period. Future precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from Global Climate Change Models (GCMs) and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are, however, higher than GCM predictions for Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes in the Great Lakes Basin are likely the result of climate change

Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

International audienceIn the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes particularly for the precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin may be demonstrating influences arising from global warming and climate change

Development Of a Novel Multi-disciplinary Design Optimization Scheme For Micro Compliant Devices

The focus of this research is on the development of a novel multi-disciplinary design optimization scheme for micro-compliant devices. Topology optimization is a powerful tool that can address the need for a systematic method to design MEMS. It is expected that systematic design methods will make the design of micro devices transparent to the user and thus spur their use. Although topology optimization of MEMS devices with embedded actuation has received a great deal of attention among researchers recently, there is not a significant amount of literature available on the subject. The limited literature available addresses multi-physics topology optimization, which employs the homogenization method. However, the products of this method inherit the drawbacks of homogenized material discretization, including checkerboard pattern, gray-scale material and narrow flexural hinges in the optimum solution. In this thesis, a new topology optimization scheme is introduced that addresses the specific needs of MEMS domain. A new discretization approach with frame-ground structure is introduced. This approach offers significant conceptual and practical advantages to the compliant MEMS optimization problem, including compatibility with MEMS fabrication processes. The design spaces of compliant mechanisms are non-convex and it is critical to employ an algorithm capable of converging to the global optimum without the need to evaluate gradients of objective function. In this thesis, an efficient real-coded genetic algorithm is implemented, which shows a better repeatability and converges to very similar solutions in different runs. This new method of optimization facilitates the use of a coarse subdivision of the design domain rather than the homogenized material method, for the same resolution of shape definition. Therefore, the topology optimization scheme developed in this thesis significantly reduces the computational burden without compromising the sharpness of the shape definition. As the problem of compliant mechanism design is posed as a set of conflicting objectives, a well-posed multi-criteria objective function is introduced which avoids one objective dominating the solution. Moreover, the formulation is modified to incorporate electro-thermal boundaries and enables the optimization of the compliant mechanisms to transfer maximum motion or maximum force at the output. A number of design examples are used to demonstrate the ability of the procedure to generate non-intuitive topologies. Their performance is verified using ANSYS and compared with results from the homogenization method and designs reported in the available literature

The Jurisprudential, Ethical and Communicative Principles of Encountering Disrespect for the Infallibles

One of the current problems of Islamic societies is to find the best way to confront disrespect for sanctities. To find out the best manner of treating those who give offense to the Infallibles is to examine the basics of confronting insults in Islamic teachings. The present research has tried to explore these principles in three different domains: 1) Jurisprudential, legal and governmental, 2) Ethical, 3) Cultural and communicative. This article by using the conventional jurisprudential research methods has offered the following ways of dealing with insults: Necessity of respecting rituals, avoiding the propagation of insult, maintaining unity, guidance, pursuing justice, showing Islamic kindness, forbidding disrespect for religion, confronting sedition, avoiding desacralization, and preventing devaluation of the existing values . Paying attention to these bases, in addition to preventing the spread of insult to the Infallibles, will provide the suitable ground of choosing the best method of dealing with disrespect under different circumstances. Hence, the legal, ethical and communication foundations for encountering disrespect for the Infallibles can pave the way for finding the best solutions derived from religious teachings in this field

A Study Examining the Effect of Export Growth in Iran

Economic growth and its related factors, both theoretical and experimental aspects have been considered economists and policy makers of countries. Also, more than two decades the relationship between exports and economic growth has been had special importance. The theoretical framework was designed based on this assumption that the total product in the economy was divided into two parts, production for inside (N) and production for exports (X) and each two section production is a function of factors allocated capital and labor. The data were collected from 1961 to 2006 and were analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model. Hence in this article, we want to do Feder model and econometrics conventional methods to survey effect of exports on economic growth (industry & mining sector, services and agriculture). The results of this study show that each section export growth has a positive effect on the growth of value added in the same section. But the effect of export growth on the value added in industry and mining sector is more than other sectors. Together the independent variables explained 87% of the variance in the dependent variables. The remaining 13% was due to unidentified variables. In relation to that, we can conclude that explanatory power is high for the equation.Key words: Export; Oil export; Non-Oil exports; Ordinary least square (OLS); Economic growth; Ira

An Econometric Estimation of Irrigation Water Demand for Watermelon in Iran

. Iran is located in an arid and semi-arid area with scarcity of water resource for its agricultural activities. About 93 percent of the total annual Iranian water consumption is for agricultural activities. Not with standing high irrigation water demand in the agricultural sector, farmers pay very low price for water and the cost borne by farmers for irrigation water is much lower than the actual value of water. The low irrigation fee has caused not only inefficient allocation of water resources in this sector, but it has also resulted in farmers producing crops which require relatively large amount of water as well as non-essential crops. The main objective of this study is to estimate the demand for irrigation water, and to analyze the current pricing mechanism (policy) for water. The demand elasticity of goods, services and input determines which a change in price, ceteris paribus, affects users’ quantity demanded. This study investigated the structure of irrigation water demand by estimating the derived demand for water on a particular crop, watermelon, in Iran. A derived demand function is estimated after performing the relevant statistical tests. The price elasticity of irrigation water demand and other elasticities are also computed. The price elasticity is found significant. Data and information from 2001 to 2006 from 21 provinces in Iran is employed. Parameters for the demand functions were estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). The parameters of models were estimated using the econometric method on panel data. The estimated water price coefficients are found to be negative which confirm the economic pricing theory. (Abstract by authors

Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Simultaneous Head and Neck Mass Surgery

Background: Coronary artery disease (CAD) and cancer have common risk factors. According to the necessity of mass resection in patients with CAD at the same time, we decided to do neck and head mass resection and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) simultaneously and assess the results.Methods: The current study was done on patients who were candidates for simultaneous head and neck mass resection and CABG. The patients’ files were extracted, the information and complications were recorded in a questionnaire, and then necessary data were extracted.Results: Totally 9 patients (3 females and 6 males) with a mean age of 69.11 ± 6.67 standard deviation years were studied. The most common site of squamous cell carcinoma in this study was tongue. Infection occurred in three patients, two of which (66.66%) died. Side effects occurred in four patients.Conclusions: It seems that, according to the anatomical position of neck mass, proximity to the airways and large blood supply in that area, and also because of inappropriate access to the anatomical zones, the survival rate and complications in this surgical setting (simultaneous surgeries) are different from that of other studies. It seems that further studies are needed to be done with the subject of concomitant head and neck mass surgery and CABG this time with a larger number of patients

ASSESS THE READINESS OF THE OUTPATIENT TREATMENT CENTERS OF SOCIAL SECURITY TO RUN SMART HEALTH CARD

Introduction: Smart card, microprocessor chip, facilitate providing e-health services in health center. Design and implementation of smart cards in the Social Security Organization as one of the health centers reduce costs, prevent abuses of medical insurance, increase productivity and accelerate response time. In this study, readiness of the outpatient treatment centers of social security to implement health smart card assessed. Methods: this practical and descriptive study was conducted in nine outpatient treatment center of Khorasan Razavi Social Security center in 2016-2017.  Total proposed number of outpatient treatment center was reduced to 9 center because other centers did not take part in this review .A questionnaire with three areas of technical readiness, organizational culture and leadership and management was used. The data were analyzed using spss 19 software Results: Finding showed Average scores of technical and leadership and cultural organization readiness were ordinary in all centers. Leadership and cultural organization readiness in 4 center were more than others. Average scores of technical were more than of leadership and cultural organization readiness .Technical readiness had significant difference between the studied centers. Conclusion: Finding showed appropriate technical readiness in Social Security, therefore we suggest to implement smart cards, educating staff to enhance technology skills and to promote its use culture. Readiness of management and leadership scope is impressive in designing and implementing smart cards; So implementing smart cards should be organization`s strategy and the road map should be determined, and its benefits should be clearly explain for social security center managers