Evaluating currency crises: A multivariate Markov regime switching approach

This paper provides an empirical framework to analyse the nature of currency crises byextending earlier work of Jeanne and Masson (2000) who suggest that a currency crisismodel with multiple equilibria can be estimated using Markov regime switching (MRS)models. However, Jeanne and Masson (2000) assume that the transition probabilitiesacross equilibria are constant and independent of fundamentals. Thus, currency crisis isdriven by a sunspot unrelated to fundamentals. This paper further contributes to theliterature by suggesting a multivariate MRS model to analyse the nature of currencycrises. In the new set up, one can test for the impact of the unobserved dynamics offundamentals on the probability of devaluation. Empirical evidence shows thatexpectations about fundamentals, which are reflected by their unobserved state variables,not only affect the probability of devaluation but also can be used to forecast a currencycrisis one period ahead

Perceived structure and achievement goals as predictors of student' self-regulated learning and affect and the mediating role of competence need satisfaction

Cataloged from PDF version of article.We investigated the extent to which perceived structure and personal achievement goals could explain students' effective learning strategies and affect-related experiences in a sample of Greek adolescent students (N=606; 45.4% males; mean age: M=15.05, SD=1.43). Having controlled for students' social desirability responses, we used multilevel analyses, and found that between-student (i.e., within class) differences in perceived structure related positively to learning strategies and positive affect and negatively to negative affect, with the relations being partially mediated by competence need satisfaction. In addition, we found between-student differences in the relations of mastery-approach, performance-approach, and performanceavoidance goals to the learning-strategy and affect outcomes. Moreover, at the between-class level, perceived structure related positively to learning strategies and positive affect, and negatively to depressive feelings. Finally, an interesting cross-level interaction between perceived structure and performance-avoidance goals for negative affect revealed that well-structured classrooms attenuated the positive, harmful relation between performance-avoidance goals and negative affect. These findings indicate the key role of structure and the endorsement of mastery-approach goals in the classroom

Personal and contextual antecedents of achievement goals: Their direct and indirect relations to students' learning strategies

Cataloged from PDF version of article.In this correlational research, we investigated to what extent achievement goals, in conjunction with need for achievement and fear of failure as well as perceived classroom goal structures, are related to learning strategies among upper elementary school students. After taking into account students' tendency to respond in a socially desirable way, we found, through path analysis, that mastery-approach goals partially mediated the relation of need for achievement and perceived mastery goal structures to learning strategies. These findings are discussed within the hierarchical model framework proposed by Elliot (1999). They suggest that the simultaneous examination of personal and contextual antecedents of achievement goals can enhance our understanding of the processes underlying achievement motivation and its outcomes

Within-person configurations and temporal relations of personal and perceived parent-promoted life goals to school correlates among adolescents

Cataloged from PDF version of article.Grounded in self-determination theory, this longitudinal study examined the academic correlates of middle and high school students' (N = 923; 33.4% male) intrinsic and extrinsic aspirations (i.e., life goals) and the type of aspirations that they perceive their parents to promote to them. Person-centered analysis revealed 3 meaningful groups: a relatively high intrinsic aspiration group, a relatively moderate intrinsic aspiration group, and a relatively high-intrinsic and high-extrinsic aspiration group. Tukey post hoc comparisons indicated that students in the high intrinsic aspiration group scored higher on mastery-approach goals, effort regulation, and grades than students in the other 2 groups and lower on performance-approach goals and test anxiety than students in the high-high aspiration group. A match between learners' own aspiration profile and the perceived parent-promoted aspiration profile did not alter these between-group differences. Further, intrapersonal fluctuations of intrinsic aspirations covaried with mastery-approach goals over a 1-year time interval, while extrinsic aspirations covaried with performance-approach goals and test anxiety in the same period; none of these within-person associations were consistently moderated by between-student differences in perceived parental aspiration promotion. Instead, perceived parent-promoted intrinsic and extrinsic aspirations were, respectively, positive and negative predictors of between-student differences in positive school functioning. The present results highlight the importance of endorsing and promoting intrinsic aspirations for school adjustment. © 2013 American Psychological Association

A Goal-based Framework for Contextual Requirements Modeling and Analysis

Requirements Engineering (RE) research often ignores, or presumes a uniform nature of the context in which the system operates. This assumption is no longer valid in emerging computing paradigms, such as ambient, pervasive and ubiquitous computing, where it is essential to monitor and adapt to an inherently varying context. Besides influencing the software, context may influence stakeholders' goals and their choices to meet them. In this paper, we propose a goal-oriented RE modeling and reasoning framework for systems operating in varying contexts. We introduce contextual goal models to relate goals and contexts; context analysis to refine contexts and identify ways to verify them; reasoning techniques to derive requirements reflecting the context and users priorities at runtime; and finally, design time reasoning techniques to derive requirements for a system to be developed at minimum cost and valid in all considered contexts. We illustrate and evaluate our approach through a case study about a museum-guide mobile information system

THE 2015 CEOS DISTANCE EDUCATION COURSE ON GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS MANAGEMENT

Σκοπός της παρούσας εργασίας είναι να παρουσιάσει το πλαίσιο, το περιεχόμενο, τα αποτελέσματα και τα συμπεράσματα από το σεμινάριο με θέμα τη διαχείριση γεωλογικών καταστροφών της Επιτροπής για τους Δορυφόρους Παρατήρησης της Γης (Committee on Earth Observation Satellites/CEOS), το οποίο διενεργήθηκε στα πλαίσια του προγράμματος εξ ’αποστάσεως εκπαίδευσης της CEOS με γενικό αντικείμενο τις “Τεχνικές Τηλεπισκόπησης για τη Διαχείριση Καταστροφών” του 2015 – μια κοινή προσπάθεια των Υπηρεσιών της CEOS και συγκεκριμένα της ομάδας εργασίας για την ανάπτυξη δεξιοτήτων-διάθεση δεδομένων (Working Group on Capacity Building & Data Democracy/WGCapD) και της ομάδας εργασίας για τις καταστροφές (Working Group on Disasters/WGDisasters).The purpose of this paper is to present the framework, content, outcomes and the lessons learnt from the 2015 Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) course on geological disasters management, delivered within the 2015 CEOS Distance Education Course entitled “Remote Sensing Technology for Disaster Management” - a joint effort by CEOS Agencies, in particular of the Working Group on Capacity Building & Data Democracy (WGCapD) and the Working Group on Disasters (WGDisasters)

Ontology-Based Support for Security Requirements Specification Process

The security requirements specification (SRS) is an integral aspect of the development of secured information systems and entails the formal documentation of the security needs of a system in a correct and consistent way. However, in many cases there is lack of sufficiently experienced security experts or security requirements (SR) engineer within an organization, which limits the quality of SR that are specified. This paper presents an approach that leverages ontologies and requirements boilerplates in order to alleviate the effect of lack of highly experienced personnel for SRS. It also offers a credible starting point for the SRS process. A preliminary evaluation of the tool prototype – ReqSec tool - was used to demonstrate the approach and to confirm its usability to support the SRS process. The tool helps to reduce the amount of effort required, stimulate discovery of latent security threats, and enables the specification of good quality SR

THE 2015 CEOS DISTANCE EDUCATION COURSE ON GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS MANAGEMENT

Σκοπός της παρούσας εργασίας είναι να παρουσιάσει το πλαίσιο, το περιεχόμενο, τα αποτελέσματα και τα συμπεράσματα από το σεμινάριο με θέμα τη διαχείριση γεωλογικών καταστροφών της Επιτροπής για τους Δορυφόρους Παρατήρησης της Γης (Committee on Earth Observation Satellites/CEOS), το οποίο διενεργήθηκε στα πλαίσια του προγράμματος εξ ’αποστάσεως εκπαίδευσης της CEOS με γενικό αντικείμενο τις “Τεχνικές Τηλεπισκόπησης για τη Διαχείριση Καταστροφών” του 2015 – μια κοινή προσπάθεια των Υπηρεσιών της CEOS και συγκεκριμένα της ομάδας εργασίας για την ανάπτυξη δεξιοτήτων-διάθεση δεδομένων (Working Group on Capacity Building & Data Democracy/WGCapD) και της ομάδας εργασίας για τις καταστροφές (Working Group on Disasters/WGDisasters).The purpose of this paper is to present the framework, content, outcomes and the lessons learnt from the 2015 Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) course on geological disasters management, delivered within the 2015 CEOS Distance Education Course entitled “Remote Sensing Technology for Disaster Management” - a joint effort by CEOS Agencies, in particular of the Working Group on Capacity Building & Data Democracy (WGCapD) and the Working Group on Disasters (WGDisasters)