Emergence of Sri Lanka in European fish trade

This paper examines European Union (E.U.) demand for chilled fish fillets assuming product heterogeneity due to country of origin and assesses the structural adjustment in demand as indicated by the increase in imports from Sri Lanka since the tsunami in December 2004. The primary objective of this research is to assess how Sri Lanka’s fish exports affected fish exports from Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda (Lake Victoria region). Although the results show no significant price competition between the Lake Victoria region and Sri Lanka, the Lake Victoria countries are clearly worse off now that Sri Lanka is a major supplier of chilled fish to the E.U. A comparison of the two periods 2001–2004 and 2007–2009 finds that in the former period, past imports of Lake Victoria fish had a positive impact on present imports, indicating that importers developed a preference for Lake Victoria fish during this time; in the latter period, this effect no longer existed. Most important is the change in the responsiveness of imports from Lake Victoria to real aggregate expenditures on imported fish in the E.U. The results show that a lesser share of aggregate expenditures is allocated to the Lake Victoria region and that the region now benefits less from an increase in aggregate expenditures.Lake Victoria, fish, imports,

An Assessment of Dynamic Behavior in the U.S. Catfish Market: An Application of the Generalized Dynamic Rotterdam Model

The generalized dynamic Rotterdam model was used in estimating U.S. demand for disaggregated catfish. The overall goal was to examine habit persistence in consumption and to determine the adjustment process in demand. Results indicated that it took up to 1 month for catfish-product demand to fully adjust to changes in expenditures and prices. Additionally, habit persistence played a role in demand where present consumption of a given product was positively affected by past consumption of that product. Consequently, U.S. catfish demand was significantly more elastic in the long-run.catfish, demand, dynamics, partial adjustment, Rotterdam model, Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, C51, Q11, Q13, Q17,

Allowing for Group Effects When Estimating Import Demand for Source and Product Differentiated Goods

In this study an import demand model (differential production model) is presented that is used in estimating the demand for source and product differentiated goods simultaneously. Unlike the traditional import demand models, this model can account for changes in relative group expenditures. Expenditure estimates differed when comparing the differential production model and Rotterdam model results. Results showed that if group revenue shares are relatively fixed, then the bias in expenditure estimates due to omitting group effects will be small when using traditional demand models such as the AIDS or Rotterdam models. As relative group shares significantly change and diverge the bias increases, particularly for imports representing a larger share of group expenditures.Import demand, AIDS model, Rotterdam model, product differentiation, source differentiation, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, F17, Q17, Q11.,

The Demand for Imported Apple Juice in the United States

This study estimates U.S. demand for imported apple juice by exporting country. Given that China has emerged as the top supplier to the U.S., we focus on the impact of China on competing exporting countries. Results show that U.S. imports from Argentina, Chile, and the rest of the world (ROW) were significantly responsive to apple juice prices in China. U.S. imports from China were significantly responsive to prices in Argentina, Chile and the ROW as well; however, the responsiveness of imports from China to apple juice prices in these countries was relatively smaller than the responsiveness of imports from these countries to China’s price.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade,

International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data

In a 2003 report, International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns, ERS economists estimated income and price elasticities of demand for broad consumption categories and food categories across 114 countries using 1996 International Comparison Program (ICP) data. This report updates that analysis with an estimated two-stage demand system across 144 countries using 2005 ICP data. Advances in ICP data collection since 1996 led to better results and more accurate income and price elasticity estimates. Low-income countries spend a greater portion of their budget on necessities, such as food, while richer countries spend a greater proportion of their income on luxuries, such as recreation. Low-value staples, such as cereals, account for a larger share of the food budget in poorer countries, while high-value food items are a larger share of the food budget in richer countries. Overall, low-income countries are more responsive to changes in income and food prices and, therefore, make larger adjustments to their food consumption pattern when incomes and prices change. However, adjustments to price and income changes are not uniform across all food categories. Staple food consumption changes the least, while consumption of higher-value food items changes the most.ICP 2005, high-value food products, consumption patterns, marginal share, income elasticity, price elasticity, ERS, USDA, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

International Trade and Competitiveness of Lake Victoria Fillets in the EU

Given the importance of EU demand for chilled fish fillets to the exporting sectors in Tanzania and Uganda, this study estimated the EUs import demand for fillets by country of origin to assess the competitiveness of exporters. Results imply that prices in Tanzania and Uganda had an insignificant impact on total imports expenditures in the EU. Conditional and unconditional cross-price effects indicated that exports from Lake Victoria did not compete with exports from other suppliers, such as Iceland, Norway and ROW. Import demand forecasts showed that market share in the EU should remain relatively unchanged given the trend in prices.fillets, import demand, EU, Lake Victoria, International Relations/Trade, F17, Q17, Q11,

Violence, Political Instability, and International Trade: Evidence from Kenya’s Cut Flower Sector

Abstract: We assess whether and how violence and political instability affect trade between developed and developing countries considering the special case of EU imports of Kenyan roses after the 2007/08 post-election violence and political instability in Kenya. Using the Rotterdam model to estimate EU demand for roses from Kenya and other global competitors, we find evidence of a structural change in the import growth rate for Kenya, approximately equivalent to an 18.6% tariff. These results highlight the importance of non-tariff barriers to trade and contribute to the growing literature on the role of insecurity and instability in hindering international trade.Kenya, Africa, EU, election violence, cut flowers, roses, imports, international trade, Demand and Price Analysis, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, F14, F23, F59, O13, Q17,

The impact of feed cost on U.S. poultry production: implications for the impact of increased ethanol production

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

Market Integration for Shrimp and the Effect of Catastrophic Events

Seasonal unit-root testing and seasonal cointegration methods are employed to investigate the price transmission in U.S. shrimp markets. ARIMA and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) are used to identify the effect of catastrophic events on individual price series in one region and the spillover effects in the price series for other regions. Results showed that a cointegrating relation exists between neighboring states, specifically between Alabama and Mississippi and Louisiana and Texas. Cointegrating relations also exist between the Gulf States and the Pacific region, but not the Atlantic region, and the price of imported shrimp is cointegrated with each of the domestic shrimp price series. Finally, while Katrina had an effect on shrimp prices in Gulf States, the effect was not long lasting.catastrophic events, cointegration, market integration, seasonal unit-roots, spillover effects, Marketing, Risk and Uncertainty, C13, Q11, Q13,