Forecasting the response of Earth\u27s surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth\u27s surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail. © 2015 The Authors. Earth\u27s Future published by Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union

Observation of Scaling Violations in Scaled Momentum Distributions at HERA

Charged particle production has been measured in deep inelastic scattering (DIS) events over a large range of $x$ and $Q^2$ using the ZEUS detector. The evolution of the scaled momentum, $x_p$, with $Q^2,$ in the range 10 to 1280 $GeV^2$, has been investigated in the current fragmentation region of the Breit frame. The results show clear evidence, in a single experiment, for scaling violations in scaled momenta as a function of $Q^2$.Comment: 21 pages including 4 figures, to be published in Physics Letters B. Two references adde

D* Production in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

This paper presents measurements of D^{*\pm} production in deep inelastic scattering from collisions between 27.5 GeV positrons and 820 GeV protons. The data have been taken with the ZEUS detector at HERA. The decay channel $D^{*+}\to (D^0 \to K^- \pi^+) \pi^+$ (+ c.c.) has been used in the study. The $e^+p$ cross section for inclusive D^{*\pm} production with $5<Q^2<100 GeV^2$ and $y<0.7$ is 5.3 \pms 1.0 \pms 0.8 nb in the kinematic region {$1.3<p_T(D^{*\pm})<9.0$ GeV and $| \eta(D^{*\pm}) |<1.5$}. Differential cross sections as functions of p_T(D^{*\pm}), $\eta(D^{*\pm}), W$ and $Q^2$ are compared with next-to-leading order QCD calculations based on the photon-gluon fusion production mechanism. After an extrapolation of the cross section to the full kinematic region in p_T(D^{*\pm}) and $\eta$(D^{*\pm}), the charm contribution $F_2^{c\bar{c}}(x,Q^2)$ to the proton structure function is determined for Bjorken $x$ between 2 $\cdot$ 10$^{-4}$ and 5 $\cdot$ 10$^{-3}$.Comment: 17 pages including 4 figure

Origin and Evolution of Saturn's Ring System

The origin and long-term evolution of Saturn's rings is still an unsolved problem in modern planetary science. In this chapter we review the current state of our knowledge on this long-standing question for the main rings (A, Cassini Division, B, C), the F Ring, and the diffuse rings (E and G). During the Voyager era, models of evolutionary processes affecting the rings on long time scales (erosion, viscous spreading, accretion, ballistic transport, etc.) had suggested that Saturn's rings are not older than 100 My. In addition, Saturn's large system of diffuse rings has been thought to be the result of material loss from one or more of Saturn's satellites. In the Cassini era, high spatial and spectral resolution data have allowed progress to be made on some of these questions. Discoveries such as the ''propellers'' in the A ring, the shape of ring-embedded moonlets, the clumps in the F Ring, and Enceladus' plume provide new constraints on evolutionary processes in Saturn's rings. At the same time, advances in numerical simulations over the last 20 years have opened the way to realistic models of the rings's fine scale structure, and progress in our understanding of the formation of the Solar System provides a better-defined historical context in which to understand ring formation. All these elements have important implications for the origin and long-term evolution of Saturn's rings. They strengthen the idea that Saturn's rings are very dynamical and rapidly evolving, while new arguments suggest that the rings could be older than previously believed, provided that they are regularly renewed. Key evolutionary processes, timescales and possible scenarios for the rings's origin are reviewed in the light of tComment: Chapter 17 of the book ''Saturn After Cassini-Huygens'' Saturn from Cassini-Huygens, Dougherty, M.K.; Esposito, L.W.; Krimigis, S.M. (Ed.) (2009) 537-57

Active Galactic Nuclei at the Crossroads of Astrophysics

Over the last five decades, AGN studies have produced a number of spectacular examples of synergies and multifaceted approaches in astrophysics. The field of AGN research now spans the entire spectral range and covers more than twelve orders of magnitude in the spatial and temporal domains. The next generation of astrophysical facilities will open up new possibilities for AGN studies, especially in the areas of high-resolution and high-fidelity imaging and spectroscopy of nuclear regions in the X-ray, optical, and radio bands. These studies will address in detail a number of critical issues in AGN research such as processes in the immediate vicinity of supermassive black holes, physical conditions of broad-line and narrow-line regions, formation and evolution of accretion disks and relativistic outflows, and the connection between nuclear activity and galaxy evolution.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures; review contribution; "Exploring the Cosmic Frontier: Astrophysical Instruments for the 21st Century", ESO Astrophysical Symposia Serie

A quantitative genetic approach to assess the evolutionary potential of a coastal marine fish to ocean acidification

Assessing the potential of marine organisms to adapt genetically to increasing oceanic CO2 levels requires proxies such as heritability of fitness-related traits under ocean acidification (OA). We applied a quantitative genetic method to derive the first heritability estimate of survival under elevated CO2 conditions in a metazoan. Specifically, we reared offspring, selected from a wild coastal fish population (Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia), at high CO2 conditions (~2300 μatm) from fertilization to 15 days posthatch, which significantly reduced survival compared to controls. Perished and surviving offspring were quantitatively sampled and genotyped along with their parents, using eight polymorphic microsatellite loci, to reconstruct a parent–offspring pedigree and estimate variance components. Genetically related individuals were phenotypically more similar (i.e., survived similarly long at elevated CO2 conditions) than unrelated individuals, which translated into a significantly nonzero heritability (0.20 ± 0.07). The contribution of maternal effects was surprisingly small (0.05 ± 0.04) and nonsignificant. Survival among replicates was positively correlated with genetic diversity, particularly with observed heterozygosity. We conclude that early life survival of M. menidia under high CO2 levels has a significant additive genetic component that could elicit an evolutionary response to OA, depending on the strength and direction of future selection

History of clinical transplantation

How transplantation came to be a clinical discipline can be pieced together by perusing two volumes of reminiscences collected by Paul I. Terasaki in 1991-1992 from many of the persons who were directly involved. One volume was devoted to the discovery of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), with particular reference to the human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) that are widely used today for tissue matching.1 The other focused on milestones in the development of clinical transplantation.2 All the contributions described in both volumes can be traced back in one way or other to the demonstration in the mid-1940s by Peter Brian Medawar that the rejection of allografts is an immunological phenomenon.3,4 © 2008 Springer New York

The PHENIX Experiment at RHIC

The physics emphases of the PHENIX collaboration and the design and current status of the PHENIX detector are discussed. The plan of the collaboration for making the most effective use of the available luminosity in the first years of RHIC operation is also presented.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure. Further details of the PHENIX physics program available at http://www.rhic.bnl.gov/phenix

A large mid-Holocene estuary was not present in the lower River Murray, Australia

Recent research has suggested that during the mid-Holocene (c. 8500 to 5000 cal yr BP) a large estuary occupied the lower River Murray and its terminal lakes (Lakes Alexandrina and Albert: herein the Lower Lakes) in South Australia. This research has questioned both reconstructions of past River Murray discharge and contemporary environmental water provisions aimed at maintaining the freshwater state of the Lower Lakes. We show that (1) a large mid-Holocene estuary extending into the lower River Murray was not physically possible, and (2) that the River Murray and Lower Lakes were predominantly fresh during the mid-Holocene. Sea level was well below present at the time of purported initiation of estuarine sedimentation and, therefore, could not have allowed formation of an estuary. Holocene human occupation of the lower River Murray valley, that was reliant on freshwater resources, negates the existence of a large estuary in the valley. A variety of freshwater indicators in sediments from in, and around, the Lower Lakes negate the notion of significant marine incursion. Hence, current management of the Lower Lakes as freshwater ecosystems is consistent with their Holocene history.J. Tibby, B. Bourman, C. Wilson, L. M. Mosley, A. P. Belperio, D. D. Ryan ... et al