Mathematical and Statistical Techniques for Systems Medicine: The Wnt Signaling Pathway as a Case Study

The last decade has seen an explosion in models that describe phenomena in systems medicine. Such models are especially useful for studying signaling pathways, such as the Wnt pathway. In this chapter we use the Wnt pathway to showcase current mathematical and statistical techniques that enable modelers to gain insight into (models of) gene regulation, and generate testable predictions. We introduce a range of modeling frameworks, but focus on ordinary differential equation (ODE) models since they remain the most widely used approach in systems biology and medicine and continue to offer great potential. We present methods for the analysis of a single model, comprising applications of standard dynamical systems approaches such as nondimensionalization, steady state, asymptotic and sensitivity analysis, and more recent statistical and algebraic approaches to compare models with data. We present parameter estimation and model comparison techniques, focusing on Bayesian analysis and coplanarity via algebraic geometry. Our intention is that this (non exhaustive) review may serve as a useful starting point for the analysis of models in systems medicine.Comment: Submitted to 'Systems Medicine' as a book chapte

PainDroid: An android-based virtual reality application for pain assessment

Earlier studies in the field of pain research suggest that little efficient intervention currently exists in response to the exponential increase in the prevalence of pain. In this paper, we present an Android application (PainDroid) with multimodal functionality that could be enhanced with Virtual Reality (VR) technology, which has been designed for the purpose of improving the assessment of this notoriously difficult medical concern. Pain- Droid has been evaluated for its usability and acceptability with a pilot group of potential users and clinicians, with initial results suggesting that it can be an effective and usable tool for improving the assessment of pain. Participant experiences indicated that the application was easy to use and the potential of the application was similarly appreciated by the clinicians involved in the evaluation. Our findings may be of considerable interest to healthcare providers, policy makers, and other parties that might be actively involved in the area of pain and VR research

Accuracy of Malaria Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Community Studies and their Impact on Treatment of Malaria in an Area with Declining Malaria Burden in North-Eastern Tanzania.

Despite some problems related to accuracy and applicability of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), they are currently the best option in areas with limited laboratory services for improving case management through parasitological diagnosis and reducing over-treatment. This study was conducted in areas with declining malaria burden to assess; 1) the accuracy of RDTs when used at different community settings, 2) the impact of using RDTs on anti-malarial dispensing by community-owned resource persons (CORPs) and 3) adherence of CORPs to treatment guidelines by providing treatment based on RDT results. Data were obtained from: 1) a longitudinal study of passive case detection of fevers using CORPs in six villages in Korogwe; and 2) cross-sectional surveys (CSS) in six villages of Korogwe and Muheza districts, north-eastern, Tanzania. Performance of RDTs was compared with microscopy as a gold standard, and factors affecting their accuracy were explored using a multivariate logistic regression model. Overall sensitivity and specificity of RDTs in the longitudinal study (of 23,793 febrile cases; 18,154 with microscopy and RDTs results) were 88.6% and 88.2%, respectively. In the CSS, the sensitivity was significantly lower (63.4%; χ2=367.7, p<0.001), while the specificity was significantly higher (94.3%; χ2=143.1, p<0.001) when compared to the longitudinal study. As determinants of sensitivity of RDTs in both studies, parasite density of<200 asexual parasites/μl was significantly associated with high risk of false negative RDTs (OR≥16.60, p<0.001), while the risk of false negative test was significantly lower among cases with fever (axillary temperature ≥37.5 °C) (OR≤0.63, p≤0.027). The risk of false positive RDT (as a determinant of specificity) was significantly higher in cases with fever compared to afebrile cases (OR≥2.40, p<0.001). Using RDTs reduced anti-malarials dispensing from 98.9% to 32.1% in cases aged ≥5 years. Although RDTs had low sensitivity and specificity, which varied widely depending on fever and parasite density, using RDTs reduced over-treatment with anti-malarials significantly. Thus, with declining malaria prevalence, RDTs will potentially identify majority of febrile cases with parasites and lead to improved management of malaria and non-malaria fevers

Red blood cell distribution width: Genetic evidence for aging pathways in 116,666 volunteers

This is the final version of the article. Available from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this record.INTRODUCTION: Variability in red blood cell volumes (distribution width, RDW) increases with age and is strongly predictive of mortality, incident coronary heart disease and cancer. We investigated inherited genetic variation associated with RDW in 116,666 UK Biobank human volunteers. RESULTS: A large proportion RDW is explained by genetic variants (29%), especially in the older group (60+ year olds, 33.8%, <50 year olds, 28.4%). RDW was associated with 194 independent genetic signals; 71 are known for conditions including autoimmune disease, certain cancers, BMI, Alzheimer's disease, longevity, age at menopause, bone density, myositis, Parkinson's disease, and age-related macular degeneration. Exclusion of anemic participants did not affect the overall findings. Pathways analysis showed enrichment for telomere maintenance, ribosomal RNA, and apoptosis. The majority of RDW-associated signals were intronic (119 of 194), including SNP rs6602909 located in an intron of oncogene GAS6, an eQTL in whole blood. CONCLUSIONS: Although increased RDW is predictive of cardiovascular outcomes, this was not explained by known CVD or related lipid genetic risks, and a RDW genetic score was not predictive of incident disease. The predictive value of RDW for a range of negative health outcomes may in part be due to variants influencing fundamental pathways of aging.This work was supported by an award to DM, TF, AM and LH by the UK Medical Research Council (grant number MR/M023095/1). SEJ is funded by the Medical Research Council (grant: MR/M005070/1). JT is funded by a Diabetes Research and Wellness Foundation Fellowship. RB is funded by the Wellcome Trust and Royal Society grant: 104150/Z/14/Z. MAT, MNW and AM are supported by the Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Award (WT097835MF). ARW, HY, and TF are supported by the European Research Council grant: 323195:GLUCOSEGENES-FP7-IDEAS-ERC. LF is supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute on Aging, U.S. National Institutes of Health. Input from MD, CLK and GK was supported by the University of Connecticut Health Center. This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource under Application Number 14631. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Gene-obesogenic environment interactions in the UK Biobank study

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that modern obesogenic environments accentuate the genetic risk of obesity. However, these studies have proven controversial as to which, if any, measures of the environment accentuate genetic susceptibility to high body mass index (BMI). METHODS: We used up to 120 000 adults from the UK Biobank study to test the hypothesis that high-risk obesogenic environments and behaviours accentuate genetic susceptibility to obesity. We used BMI as the outcome and a 69-variant genetic risk score (GRS) for obesity and 12 measures of the obesogenic environment as exposures. These measures included Townsend deprivation index (TDI) as a measure of socio-economic position, TV watching, a 'Westernized' diet and physical activity. We performed several negative control tests, including randomly selecting groups of different average BMIs, using a simulated environment and including sun-protection use as an environment. RESULTS: We found gene-environment interactions with TDI (Pinteraction = 3 × 10(-10)), self-reported TV watching (Pinteraction = 7 × 10(-5)) and self-reported physical activity (Pinteraction = 5 × 10(-6)). Within the group of 50% living in the most relatively deprived situations, carrying 10 additional BMI-raising alleles was associated with approximately 3.8 kg extra weight in someone 1.73 m tall. In contrast, within the group of 50% living in the least deprivation, carrying 10 additional BMI-raising alleles was associated with approximately 2.9 kg extra weight. The interactions were weaker, but present, with the negative controls, including sun-protection use, indicating that residual confounding is likely. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the obesogenic environment accentuates the risk of obesity in genetically susceptible adults. Of the factors we tested, relative social deprivation best captures the aspects of the obesogenic environment responsible.J.T. is funded by a Diabetes Research and Wellness Foundation Fellowship. S.E.J. is funded by the Medical Research Council (grant: MR/M005070/1). M.A.T., M.N.W. and A.M. are supported by the Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Award (WT097835MF). A.R.W., H.Y. and T.M.F. are supported by the European Research Council grant: 323195:SZ-245 50371- GLUCOSEGENES-FP7-IDEAS-ERC. R.M.F. is a Sir Henry Dale Fellow (Wellcome Trust and Royal Society grant: 104150/Z/14/Z). R.B. is funded by the Wellcome Trust and Royal Society grant: 104150/Z/14/Z. R.M.A is supported by the Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Award (WT105618MA). Z.K. is funded by Swiss National Science Foundation (31003A-143914). The funders had no influence on study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. The data reported in this paper are available via application directly to the UK Biobank