Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?

This paper analyses the impact of asymmetric preferences with respect to inflation and output by policymakers on interest-rate reaction functions. A theoretical framework which makes it possible to identify the dominant type of asymmetry is developed and related to the precautionary demand of pol- icymakers for expansions and for low inßation. Using data for some G7 economies, the paper shows that, except for Germany, nonlinear and asym- metric behaviour is present. A main Þnding is that where credibility-building and disinflation has already been achieved, the monetary authorities develop a greater precautionary demand for output expansions than for low inflation. This may generate a new type of inflation bias. Conversely, where credibility- building is still a concern for the authorities, managing the business cycle is dominated by concerns of the monetary authorities to keep inflation expec- tations low.

Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability? - Theory and Evidence

This paper analyses the impact of asymmetric preferences with respect to inflation and output by policymakers on interest-rate reaction functions and test for their existence. A modified New Keynesian framework which makes it possible to identify the dominant type of asymmetry is developed and related to the precautionary demand of policymakers for expansions and for low inflation. Using data for four G7 economies, the paper shows that, except for Germany, nonlinear and asymmetric behaviour is present. A main finding, for the US, is that after credibility-building and disinflation have been established, the monetary authority develops a greater precautionary demand for output expansions than for low inflation. This may generate a new type of inflation bias. Conversely, where, as is the case in the UK, credibility-building is still a concern for the authorities, managing the business cycle is dominated by concerns of the monetary authorities to keep inflation expectations low.

Fiscal federalism and fiscal autonomy : lessons for the UK from other industrialised countries

The purpose of this article is the following. First, we provide a comparison of the degree of fiscal decentralisation in the UK with that in other countries, and assess the extent to which different areas of public expenditure are assigned to different tiers of government. Second, we assess the degree of fiscal autonomy in the UK compared to that in other OECD countries. We also provide some insights from the theory of fiscal federalism to assess whether the current degree of fiscal autonomy in the UK is optimal, or whether there are useful lessons to be learned from other economies. One key conclusion here is that, although there would seem to be good reasons to increase the degree of fiscal autonomy in the UK, one might want to proceed with caution. We also discuss whether other OECD countries offer useful models in terms of the method of allocation of block grants, the allocation of taxation to other tiers of government, and the way in which are used to achieve the twin objectives of fiscal efficiency and equity. Finally, we consider whether the 'asymmetric nature' of UK devolution, with different national and regional units being assigned different degrees of autonomy, represents a desirable model in the light of experiences elsewhere in Europe. In the next section, we outline the division of spending responsibilities between different tiers of government in the OECD economies. Then we compare the degrees of fiscal autonomy, and assess whether further reform is warranted in the case of the UK. In subsequent sections, we consider how the mixed use of central grants, shared taxation and devolved taxation can impact on the objectives of efficiency and equity; discuss the extent to which different subcentral governments have autonomy on borrowing; and examine how fiscal federalism is evolving in different countries

A Simple and Flexible Alternative to the Stability and Growth Pact Deficit Ceilings. Is it at hand?

There have been widespread criticisms of EMU fiscal institutions. We consider a simple alternative to the deficit ceilings envisaged in the Stability and Growth Pact. We advocate the adoption of deficit targets. National governments should retain discretion in setting deviations from targets, but these deviations should then be reversed following a predetermined rule. This ensures fiscal discipline and leaves room for stabilisation policies. For the rule to be credible, only small changes are required to current EMU institutions. Our scheme performs well in comparison with existing reform proposals and is consistent with the golden rule of deficit financing.

The fiscal framework and the Scotland Bill : right on the money

This article started as a personal festschrift celebrating Scotland’s latest Economics Nobel Prize winner. It aimed to outline his work and then apply some of his methods to data that is used to monitor the Scottish economy. However the data turns out to hide a hornets’ nest. The hornets have to be dealt with if Scottish Ministers and Parliament are not to be stung when they start to use their new powers under the Scotland Act to manage the economy

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence

This paper estimates VAR models to examine the response of monetary and fiscal policy to macroeconomic targets, and the interdependence between the two policy instruments. The models are estimated for a number of G7 countries. Our findings show that, whilst monetary and fiscal policy are increasingly used as strategic complements, the responsiveness of fiscal policy to the business cycle has decreased since the 1980s. We also demonstrate that shifts in the strategic interdependence between fiscal and monetary policy can be captured using Bayesian VAR models.

Fiscal Federalism, Fiscal Consolidations and Cuts in Central Government Grants: Evidence from an Event Study

This paper contributes to a developing literature that examines financial interactions between different levels of government. More specifically, we investigate the use of grants, shared tax revenues, and their impact on fiscal outcomes, including decentralized service provision. Most existing empirical evidence has focused on individual country studies, and has predominantly been US based. However, it is difficult to generalize the conclusions obtained for the US to countries where the position and remit of lower tiers of government has recently been evolving or is less clear constitutionally. We use a panel dataset covering 15 OECD countries to investigate how central and sub-central expenditures, taxation, and intergovernmental grants change in response to central governments' attempts to correct their fiscal positions. We adopt an event study methodology to examine the timing of expenditure, taxation and intergovernmental grant shifts around the periods of fiscal consolidation. In addition to highlighting issues regarding the interaction between central and sub-central tiers of government, our analysis also sheds light into the extent to which sub-central tiers of government participate in fiscal consolidations, and hence to macroeconomic adjustment. Our key results can be summarized as follows. First, successful fiscal consolidations are generally driven by similar, and sustained, falls in expenditure at both central and sub-central tiers. Moreover, our evidence counters that identified by Gramlich (1987) for the USA, in that when central governments cut intergovernmental grants sub-central tiers do not take redress through offsetting increases in other forms of revenues. Second, unsuccessful consolidations tend to be characterized by increased central government taxation, with no fall back in grants and no tendency for sub-central taxation to change. It does appear that there is strong correlation between success in consolidating central fiscal deficits and similar actions from lower tiers of government. Third, we find that where consolidations are successful sub-central tiers of government are typically forced to cut back on capital expenditure. This suggests that in this regard the burden of adjustment falls onto lower tiers of government and central governments worry less about the long-term (i.e. public investment) consequences of consolidation if these decisions are taken at local level. We also find that when faced with cuts in intergovernmental grants, sub-central governments tend to maintain expenditures on wages at the expense of capital expenditure, reflecting a definite compositional switch towards public consumption. This might be interpreted as a variant of the effect identified by Gramlich (1987): sub-central governments seeking to defend current services rather than spending on infrastructure or raising taxation. This may reflect the greater constraints on sub-central tiers’ tax raising powers in many of the OECD countries in our sample, relative to those in the USA. Finally, our results shed some light, at least indirectly, on the ‘Fly-paper Effect’, by showing that it operates in reverse. Successful consolidations are characterized by cut-backs in grants that are more than offset by cut-backs in sub-central expenditures. In contrast, periods of unsuccessful consolidation are characterized by increases in central taxation, no change in grants, and small, temporary reductions in sub-central expenditure.

Fiscal Federalism and Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from an Event Study

Fiscal consolidations, episodes where governments make large discretionary improvements in their fiscal positions, have received considerable attention, especially in EMU. The existing literature demonstrates that the composition of consolidations is a crucial determinant of their success. We show that sub-central governments also play a key role in consolidations through sustained cuts in expenditures, as their intergovernmental grants are cut. In contrast to existing studies we find that cuts in capital spending at sub-central levels are a feature of successful consolidations. We also show that the government type and the nature of fiscal arrangements in a country impact on these results.

Whoís Afraid of the Big Bad Central Bank? Union-Firm-Central Bank Interactions and Inflation in a Monetary Union

Existing models of union-firm-central bank interaction focus on the impact which the central bank has on union behaviour in setting wages. This paper considers an alternative explanation for wage moderation, based on firm-specific factors, whereby the probability of bankruptcy and exit disciplines firms and unions. The exit of firms is a source of employment fluctuation that the union tries to stabilize. We also show that the formation of a monetary union in this model increases the probability of firm exit and may further moderate union wage demands for any given degree of central bank conservativeness.